Pirelli believes the Madrid Grand Prix could become one of the most difficult races of the season to read strategically. A two-stop strategy appears fastest on paper, but the 24-25 seconds lost in the pit lane and the expected difficulty of overtaking could instead make a one-stop race the more practical choice for Ferrari and its rivals.
Tyre degradation could still bring the Spanish Grand Prix to life despite a circuit that appears poorly suited to overtaking. At the new Madring circuit, Pirelli has identified two different forms of degradation, while the shortage of representative long-run data has left both one-stop and two-stop strategies in play. Pirelli Chief Engineer Simone Berra explained why the race remains unusually difficult to predict.
Madrid GP strategy complicated by limited race data
“There are many differences compared with a more traditional situation where we have a large historical database,” Simone Berra explained. “At the moment, we collected some significant data on Friday, but not everything we wanted because there was a red flag in FP2 that interrupted the only race simulations of the weekend. The long runs were eight laps at most, and that does not help us build a definitive picture of the situation.”
The lack of data is particularly significant because tyre degradation already appeared higher than usual during Friday practice.
“Degradation is an important and significant factor. We saw high degradation on both the soft and the medium. Obviously, in free practice the teams tried to push harder to find the limit, as they usually do. We also know that teams work throughout the weekend to optimise the set-up, improve degradation and try to achieve a more consistent pace. However, Friday’s degradation was much higher than what we have seen in other practice sessions this year, with lap times increasing by two to three tenths per lap.”
Pirelli sees both graining and thermal degradation at Madring
Graining has also returned as an important consideration in Madrid. Unlike degradation caused mainly by one axle, Pirelli found that tyre performance was being affected at both the front and rear of the car.
“The degradation came from both axles. We had some graining, especially on the front-left, which was expected because the asphalt is particularly smooth and high-grip,” Simone Berra continued. “In addition, we saw thermal degradation because the tyres have little opportunity to breathe.”
“Madrid is a medium-to-high severity circuit, with significant lateral energies, not only in the banked corner, and this means the tyres do not get much relief and temperatures remain high. That is why there is thermal degradation at both the front and the rear.”
That tyre behaviour adds another layer to existing concerns about how difficult racing could be at Formula 1’s new Madrid venue. Charles Leclerc and several other drivers have already raised concerns over the limited overtaking opportunities at Madring, making track position potentially as important as outright tyre performance.
Why Pirelli believes a one-stop strategy could win in Madrid
When Pirelli identifies the quickest strategy before a race, its calculations normally focus on total race time in relatively ideal conditions. Madrid introduces two major practical factors that could change the answer.
“Looking at the numbers collected on Friday, you would expect a two-stop race, but two important factors come into play,” Simone Berra explained. “The first is the time lost in the pit lane, which has been estimated at around 24-25 seconds, so this is one of the circuits where you lose the most time. That pushes the strategy towards a one-stop.”
“The other issue concerns overtaking opportunities. We have tried to collect feedback from the teams and it appears to be a circuit where overtaking is particularly difficult.”
For those reasons, Pirelli currently sees the medium-to-hard combination as the most plausible one-stop strategy. Teams may attempt to control their pace early and extend the opening stint as far as possible.
“Teams could manage their pace and extend as much as possible. Considering all the factors, therefore not simply the total race time in clean air but also traffic and the time lost in the pit lane, we see medium-hard as the most plausible option, with a pit stop around lap 24.”
“The hard, although it has been used very little, should be a sufficiently consistent tyre. It could still have some graining, but it should be more resistant thermally.”
Two-stop strategy remains fastest on paper
Pirelli has not ruled out the two-stop strategy, which remains extremely close and is theoretically the quickest option in terms of total race time.
“The two-stop strategy is absolutely close,” Simone Berra said. “The medium-hard-hard combination could be a winning strategy. It will depend heavily on the race situations, keeping in mind the high probability of a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car.”
“In any case, for the medium-hard-hard two-stop strategy, the pit-stop windows would be between laps 10 and 16 and then between laps 31 and 37.”
That uncertainty also creates scope for teams to react to neutralisations rather than committing rigidly to their pre-race plan. Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur has already acknowledged that interruptions could play a major role, while warning that deliberately waiting for a red flag would represent a high-risk gamble.
Ferrari and Max Verstappen keep the soft-tyre option open
Simone Berra also highlighted another possible route. Instead of beginning the race on the medium tyre, teams could use the soft compound without dramatically compromising their overall strategy.
“Instead of the medium, the soft could also be used, which we saw was absolutely usable in the full-fuel simulations. The soft-hard or soft-hard-hard combinations are only two or three seconds slower and have pit-stop windows that are practically aligned with the strategies using the medium.”
During the short race simulations completed on Friday, the initial impression was that the soft tyre was actually more consistent than the medium. Simone Berra explained why that may have happened.
“The soft, because it has more grip, could slide less at the beginning of the race when the track is less rubbered-in, and therefore generate temperatures that do not move outside the operating window. However, I do not expect the soft to have less degradation than the medium.”
Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen were the only front-running drivers to complete Q1 on medium tyres, suggesting that they may be considering starting the Grand Prix on the softer compound they preserved. Ferrari’s choice is particularly noteworthy because both cars retain a fresh set of soft tyres.
“Some teams, such as Ferrari, have kept a new set of soft tyres and may want to start on them,” Simone Berra said. “Clearly, that will require different management in the first stint of the race, but it will still allow them to attack at least in the opening metres, having more grip than the medium, which could help them recover a few positions.”
For Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc, that extra launch grip could therefore offer an opportunity before the race settles into a pattern in which passing may become considerably more difficult.
The Spanish Grand Prix remains unusually open from a strategic perspective. The quickest theoretical race and the most effective real-world strategy may not be the same thing, leaving teams to react to degradation, traffic, pit-lane losses and possible neutralisations in real time. Only at the chequered flag will it become clear which approach proved correct in a Madrid race that could demand constant tactical judgement.
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