Oscar Piastri believes Ferrari remains one of the hardest teams to assess in Formula 1 this season, with the SF-26 repeatedly producing performances that do not match expectations from one circuit to another. Ahead of the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix, the McLaren driver explained that constant car development, the learning process surrounding the new power units and the characteristics of individual tracks are making the competitive order unusually difficult to predict.
Ferrari has been a particularly striking example. While Piastri regards Mercedes as the clearest reference point in the current competitive picture, he acknowledged that the Maranello team has frequently surprised McLaren with both the strength and weakness of its pace at different venues.
Oscar Piastri struggling to predict Ferrari SF-26 pace
Speaking during media activities for the Dutch Grand Prix, Piastri explained that Formula 1’s hierarchy is continuing to evolve because teams are changing their cars and introducing substantial numbers of upgrades. In his view, that development race is significantly altering the competitive picture as the season progresses.
Ferrari has illustrated that uncertainty particularly clearly. Piastri described Mercedes as the benchmark across the different circuits visited so far, but admitted that the SF-26 has regularly behaved differently from what McLaren expected.
At some tracks where Ferrari appears likely to be exceptionally competitive, the Italian team has instead struggled to reach the anticipated level. At other venues where the car is not expected to emerge as one of the strongest packages, Ferrari has produced much more impressive performance.
That inconsistency has made it difficult for rivals to establish a reliable expectation of where the Scuderia will stand from one weekend to the next. It also gives the Ferrari-McLaren battle at Zandvoort another element of uncertainty as Formula 1 resumes competitive action.
F1 2026 development race keeps changing the hierarchy
Piastri emphasised that Ferrari is not alone in being difficult to evaluate. Teams are still discovering how to extract the maximum performance from both the new-generation cars and their 2026 power units, while a continuing stream of new components means the technical picture is rarely standing still.
That development process is particularly relevant at Ferrari, which enters the Dutch Grand Prix with further work aimed at extracting more from the SF-26. The team has prepared another SF-26 upgrade package for Zandvoort, meaning the competitive picture Piastri is attempting to assess could continue to evolve.
The constant introduction of new parts also means previous form does not necessarily provide a straightforward guide to the next race. A car’s strengths can change as development progresses, while teams are simultaneously improving their understanding of how their packages should be operated.
Why Zandvoort could produce another change in form
Circuit characteristics add another layer to the uncertainty. Zandvoort has certain similarities to Budapest in terms of the demands it places on the cars, but Piastri’s wider assessment highlights why apparently comparable venues can still produce very different competitive outcomes.
The circuit surface, weather conditions and banking of the corners all influence how a Formula 1 car behaves. Those differences can therefore alter the relative strengths of the teams even when two tracks share some broader characteristics.
That makes the Dutch weekend another important test for Ferrari. The Scuderia has brought development work to the Netherlands, including a revised SF-26 floor for Zandvoort, while the circuit itself presents variables capable of shifting the balance between the leading teams.
Tyres will form another part of that equation. Zandvoort’s characteristics mean teams must find an effective compromise between overall car performance and tyre behaviour, with the Dutch Grand Prix tyre strategy adding another consideration to an already difficult weekend to predict.
Ferrari remains a major unknown ahead of Dutch GP
Piastri’s assessment therefore points to a wider theme of the 2026 campaign: establishing a fixed Formula 1 pecking order remains difficult while cars, power units and development programmes continue to evolve simultaneously.
Mercedes may currently provide the most consistent reference in Piastri’s view, but Ferrari’s fluctuations have demonstrated how quickly expectations can be overturned. The SF-26 has not followed an easily identifiable circuit-by-circuit pattern, leaving competitors unsure whether a particular weekend will expose its limitations or bring its strengths to the surface.
For Ferrari, that unpredictability also means Zandvoort offers another opportunity to outperform expectations if the car’s characteristics, the latest developments and the demands of the circuit work together effectively. Equally, Piastri’s comments underline why predictions based solely on previous races remain difficult to trust.
The challenge for the Scuderia will be to extract the maximum from the package once track running begins, an objective that also sits at the heart of Fred Vasseur’s approach to the Dutch Grand Prix. Until the latest versions of the leading cars are compared under the same conditions, Piastri believes Formula 1’s competitive order will remain difficult to read.
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