The Italian Grand Prix weekend has kicked off with an intriguing and informative first free practice session, providing some preliminary insights. It’s important to note that we should exercise caution when drawing conclusions from this session alone. Additionally, the qualifying format with compulsory tire choices has led many drivers to complete most of the session with a single set of hard tires, reserving the others for qualifying and the race. This has somewhat distorted the final results, but it still allows for some initial evaluations.
Ferrari Experimenting with the Engine and Showing Speed on Straights
One notable aspect during the session was the various experiments conducted by the Maranello team on various aspects, including the Power Unit and power delivery maps, especially with Charles Leclerc. In some laps, the Monegasque driver demonstrated a remarkable traction progression, with an acceleration curve significantly superior to the competition, before entering clipping in the final stages of the straight. However, this experimentation with power delivery management software is entirely normal and indicative of how Maranello’s technicians are working to extract every bit of performance from the power unit. Carlos Sainz, on the other hand, was a bit freer to focus on performance and recorded a time only 46 milliseconds behind Verstappen’s best time, appearing in great form throughout the session.
Let’s compare the data from Carlos Sainz’s lap with that of Max Verstappen.
From the data, the setup and performance differences between the two cars are quite evident. The Ferrari is significantly faster in all straight sections, with a gain of nearly four-tenths overall on the straights. Verstappen’s RB19, on the other hand, is slower in terms of top speed but equally faster in all the guided sections, especially at the second Lesmo (+10 km/h compared to Sainz) and the Parabolica (a remarkable +20). Verstappen’s advantage at the Parabolica is something that repeated throughout the session, not just in comparison to Ferrari but against all drivers on the track, highlighting the higher downforce levels in these early stages of the Red Bull. Looking at the data, it seems that the Milton Keynes team approached this first session extremely conservatively in terms of the Power Unit, both in terms of top speed and traction, with clipping often apparent and acceleration curves notably lean, beyond what we believe is due to higher wing angles.
Mercedes Should Be Watched for Race Pace
As they couldn’t complete many laps on soft tires, the first session offered the opportunity to conduct a reasonably long simulation of race pace. We continue to develop our algorithm for detecting the average telemetry of long runs (representing the average data from laps completed in a given stint, rather than the specific data of a single lap), and what we found seems quite indicative.
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Even in terms of race pace, Max Verstappen is incredibly slow, averaging 14 km/h slower than Carlos Sainz on the main straight. The Dutchman’s deficit grows almost linearly in every straight section, even in the initial stages, confirming a Power Unit that’s in a conservative mode. So far, George Russell’s simulation is impressive, being both fast and consistent, showing perhaps the best balance in terms of race pace between speed on the straights and performance in guided sections. This is thanks to tire management, which is slowly returning to being a strong point for Mercedes. The Brackley team may have to deal with porpoising during the Italian weekend, but the wide range of setups that are working well on the W14 seems to be a strong card in Toto Wolff’s team, with Hamilton, in our measurements, placed second to his teammate by just 0.35 seconds in race pace. Carlos Sainz appeared to be fast as well, although, compared to Mercedes, he had to be more conservative in the Lesmo, Ascari, and Parabolica sections. Meanwhile, Sergio Perez is the driver who showed the least clipping at the end of the straight during the race pace among all the drivers examined (indeed, you can see the gap line of the Mexican tending to drop again at the end of the straight), hinting at the untapped potential in his teammate’s car.
The first session suggests a potential three-way battle among Red Bull, Mercedes, and Ferrari, each with different characteristics. We will see if the second practice session sees drivers and teams choosing significant setup changes and providing different sensations.
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