Monaco GP – Strategy analysis: consistency, courage and premonition
The Monaco Grand Prix is usually known for being a rather monotonous race, but this time it was anything but. However, that was not due to a sudden improvement in overtaking opportunities. The real reason for the unpredictability was the large number of penalties handed out for pit lane speeding and various other mistakes during the race.
From a strategic point of view, teams and drivers made bold but also largely logical and well-judged decisions throughout the weekend, with a few exceptions that will be discussed later.
The story of the Monaco GP – smooth running until Stroll’s incident
The race immediately began with the Medium C4 tyre as the main strategic choice. On paper, this compound was not significantly worse than the Soft C5 in overall performance, although it did lack some grip. That factor could have disadvantaged drivers starting on Medium compared to those opting for the Soft compound at the start.
This situation mainly played out in the midfield and at the back of the grid. Most drivers chose the Medium tyre to extend the first stint, while only Sergio Perez, Gabriel Bortoleto (who started from the pit lane due to a technical issue during installation laps), and Valtteri Bottas opted for Soft tyres.
In their case, however, the choice was not necessarily to gain an early advantage off the line, but rather to get rid of a set of tyres immediately, switch to a more durable compound and attempt a long stint until the end of the race.
After the opening laps, Perez and Bottas switched to the Medium tyre, while Bortoleto moved onto the Hard C3. This proved to be a very strong strategy for those starting at the back in Monaco. So much so that others followed a similar approach: Ollie Bearman switched to Hard, Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll (boldly) went onto Soft, and Nico Hülkenberg fitted Hard tyres after 12 laps.
By the end of lap 52, almost all drivers had completed at least one pit stop and were attempting to reach the finish without stopping again. All except Arvid Lindblad, who took advantage of the Safety Car triggered by Lance Stroll on lap 60 to make his tyre change.
Arvid and the VCARB team appeared to have had something of a premonition, because instead of switching compounds as the regulations typically require, they chose another set of Medium tyres. This meant Lindblad would still be forced to stop again with around 18–19 laps remaining. Meanwhile, the Aston Martins were running extremely worn Soft tyres, already more than 50 laps old at the time of the Safety Car.
The first Safety Car and Leclerc’s crash
At that point, everyone switched tyres and made what they considered the most sensible strategic choice. As mentioned, Lindblad fitted another set of Mediums, knowing he would need to stop again, most drivers moved onto Soft, while Hadjar, Pierre Gasly, Esteban Ocon, Nico Hülkenberg and Franco Colapinto remained on Hard tyres.
Unluckily, just as the race restarted, Charles Leclerc was caught out by the brakes in the same section where Lance Stroll had previously gone off (at Rascasse), bringing the race to a halt under the red flag.
For the restart, with only 10 laps remaining, all drivers opted for Soft tyres. What stood out was Kimi Antonelli’s remarkable consistency and pace, which was matched only by Ferrari, although even they lost around six seconds over the final 10 laps.
Aston Martin’s courage and VCARB’s premonition
Aston Martin showed real courage by betting on the Soft tyre as a primary race option. It was a risky call, but it allowed Fernando Alonso to finish 11th, just outside the top ten.
The race ended with the FIA reviewing several incidents involving Sergio Perez (possible false start) and Hadjar, while Red Bull may also have made suspension changes during the red flag period.
VCARB’s “premonition” paid off, as the team gave Lindblad a strong opportunity and ultimately scored points with both cars. A strong haul considering they finished fifth and sixth, pending FIA clarification on Hadjar.
FIA decisions
Stewards found no reason to penalise Hadjar for work carried out by mechanics on his car during the red flag period. Hadjar therefore keeps his third place, but Sergio Perez received a 10-second penalty for a false start during the late-race restart. This promoted Aston Martin and Fernando Alonso to their first points of the season.
Alpine has also exercised its right of review regarding the penalty given to Pierre Gasly, which would have otherwise cost him a place on the podium.
Retirements
Max Verstappen retired at the start after remaining stationary on the grid due to a technical issue. Valtteri Bottas, Ollie Bearman and Lando Norris retired on laps 14, 26 and 43 respectively, all due to technical problems. Lance Stroll retired on lap 60 after his incident, while Charles Leclerc retired on lap 66 following his crash.
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