Miami GP weather forecast: 40% rain risk at lights out, rising to 60% during the race. Rain is expected to play a major role in the Miami Grand Prix.

FIA changes start time ahead of uncertain conditions

The FIA has decided to bring forward the start of the 2026 Miami Grand Prix to 13:00 local time, which corresponds to 19:00 in Italy. The race was originally scheduled to begin at 16:00 in Florida, but at that time the rain risk was reported to be as high as 95%, forcing a strategic change in timing.

Despite the three-hour adjustment, the decision does not completely eliminate the threat of rain. In fact, it remains highly likely that the track will already be damp even if no rainfall occurs at the start, as showers are also expected during the morning hours leading up to the race.

Rain threat remains high for the Miami GP

According to several weather sources including accuweather.com and The Weather Channel, the probability of rain at the start of the Grand Prix stands at around 40%. However, even if drivers are able to start on slick tyres, it is highly likely that intermediate or full wet tyres will become necessary as the race progresses.

At 14:00 local time, the rain probability increases further to around 60%, reinforcing the expectation of a constantly evolving and unpredictable race scenario from start to finish.

High-risk circuit and unpredictable conditions

The Miami International Autodrome is already a low-margin circuit, where mistakes can be extremely costly. This is especially true in the second sector, which runs through a predominantly street-style section of the track with minimal runoff areas.

With rising rain chances, changing grip levels and a demanding layout, the Miami Grand Prix is shaping up to be a highly strategic and unpredictable race right up to the chequered flag.