Miami GP FP1 race pace analysis: Mercedes leads, Ferrari and McLaren raise questions. Mercedes shows strong race pace in Miami FP1.

Contrary to what usually happens during a typical Sprint weekend format, in Miami the FIA granted teams and drivers a full 90-minute Free Practice session, allowing them to properly evaluate the upgrades introduced after the break. This extended track time also gave teams the opportunity to complete several long runs with higher fuel loads, which is why it is possible to extract some meaningful race pace data.

FP1 lap times

Looking at the lap times, the situation appears quite challenging for Mercedes’ rivals. Kimi Antonelli and George Russell clearly showed an edge over the competition. Based on the pace displayed yesterday, both in FP1 and in the Sprint context, the outcome could seem somewhat predictable. However, as already seen, energy management can play a crucial role when it comes to overtaking and maintaining track position.

Considering that George Russell did not deliver a strong Sprint Qualifying performance, it is Kimi Antonelli who appears to have the best chance of success in the Sprint race. Starting near the front gives him a valuable opportunity to capitalize on Mercedes’ apparent advantage.

Ferrari’s only hope is that Mercedes may have been running with lower fuel loads to simulate Sprint conditions. The Sprint race covers a distance of 19 laps (just over 100 kilometers), and based on the number of laps completed yesterday by Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar on Medium tyres, it is possible that some drivers could attempt to complete the race using a used set of Mediums. This approach would allow them to preserve Soft tyres for qualifying and save fresh Medium sets for Sunday’s Grand Prix.

The data analysis

Considering the race pace demonstrated by Ferrari and McLaren on the Hard compound, it seems unlikely that Red Bull, running on Medium tyres, will be able to stay close to the leading group. By analyzing both the data and the graph, while also factoring in unknown variables such as fuel load differences, it becomes clear that Antonelli and Russell are currently the drivers to beat as the weekend progresses.

Starting from second place, Kimi Antonelli has a strong opportunity in the Sprint race, while it will be interesting to see whether George Russell can quickly recover positions and move through the field, even in a race without pit stops, where he will start from P6.

A close battle between Ferrari and McLaren is also expected, not only in today’s Sprint race but especially in Sunday’s Grand Prix. Charles Leclerc showed promising race pace, but considering what Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri managed to achieve in Sprint Qualifying, it is possible that McLaren may have been holding back slightly during FP1.

These uncertainties remain one of the key talking points heading into the rest of the weekend. Both the Hard and Medium compounds have shown strong consistency, particularly the white-marked C3 tyre, which could play a decisive role in shaping race strategies.