Who is the favorite? It’s the classic question before every weekend. It’s hard to answer in a Formula 1 where Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull are separated by just a few tenths of a second, especially in an atypical setting like Mexico City. At the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, the cars are forced to operate with configurations different from those they were designed for, without any precedents to predict the balance of power for the upcoming weekend.
The track
The Mexican circuit is varied, dominated by slow 90-degree turns interspersed with a high-speed sequence in the second sector. Unlike Austin, there are no long corners, but the Mexican track remains diverse, testing the balance between high and low-speed sections. Looking at the map, the track design suggests that Ferrari and McLaren could make their mark in the slow corners and traction zones, while Red Bull focuses on defending in high-speed direction changes.
However, the track’s layout must be contextualized to the environmental conditions. Mexico races are held at an altitude of 2,200 meters, where the thin air results in a 30% loss of aerodynamic downforce. This is a significant shift, especially considering that the difference between the configuration used in Monaco and that in Monza is only a 20% difference in downforce. The grip shortage is such that, according to Brembo simulations, cars only reach 4.1 g of deceleration at Turn 1, around 10% less than the average maximum deceleration on other circuits, potentially shifting the balance significantly.
Monaco wings, Monza downforce
The season has revealed the strengths and weaknesses of various cars. McLaren, for example, excels in high-downforce setups, where Red Bull appears weaker, but Mexico City presents a unique scenario. Teams use maximum aerodynamic downforce configurations, in terms of wings, heights, and floor setups, while experiencing an actual downforce lower than in Monza. As a result, the cars are in an unusual operating range, prepared to release maximum vertical load, but with tires and suspensions handling the lowest aerodynamic load of the year.
The altitude above 2,000 meters also affects the track conditions, which experience some of the fastest changes of the season. The thin air has lower thermal inertia, so the asphalt can change temperature by several degrees within minutes. This adds another challenge for teams and drivers, who must follow track evolution and adjust both tire preparation and driving style, as the car can come to life or lose performance based on the conditions of the moment. The 2023 qualifying session exemplifies the unpredictability of the Mexican weekend, with cars entering and exiting the performance window and teams suddenly gaining or losing competitiveness.
The approach
Ferrari’s winning strategy in Austin focused on a race setup, taking advantage of overtaking opportunities and sacrificing qualifying. “It’s a track where, if you start third or fourth and have good pace, you can still win,” commented Vasseur on the Texas track. “This isn’t valid everywhere, and I’m not sure it will be on all tracks from here to the end.” Indeed, the situation could already be different in Mexico City.
Although Pirelli is once again using the softest compounds in the range, C3, C4, and C5, based on past experiences, the most suitable strategy appears to be a one-stop. The road surface is not particularly abrasive, but the new track surface laid in the final stadium section will need to be evaluated. The main challenge is managing the rear axle slip, amplified by low grip conditions, which can quickly overheat the tires.
The likely single pit stop thus doesn’t offer many opportunities to gain positions, and overtaking is also challenging due to the limited effect of slipstream and DRS caused by the low level of effective aerodynamic downforce. Therefore, qualifying becomes more important than the race, encouraging teams to focus on single-lap performance. On the other hand, pole position isn’t necessarily an advantage, as the start and the first braking zone are separated by the longest distance of the year, giving those starting from the second row the chance to use the slipstream to attack immediately.
Variables
Reliability is another factor to consider in Mexico. The thin air causes various cooling issues, with the teams’ power units now showing signs of wear. The same difficulty affects the cooling of the braking system, which, according to Brembo’s estimates, faces a severity of 4 out of 5. Adequately cooling the brakes is a priority for safety, but it’s also essential for managing tire temperatures that absorb heat from the rims.
Another variable is the updates. McLaren held back from introducing a new floor in Austin, with curiosity as to whether it was simply postponed due to the hectic Sprint format or if it wasn’t scheduled in the development program at all. Ferrari’s Fred Vasseur mentioned aerodynamic updates arriving toward Qatar, hinting at hidden updates already installed in Austin. New suspension elements, greater flexibility in the front wing, or simply lighter components are the main suspects. Finally, there’s Mercedes, called upon to make the most of the new package after struggling with the overly low and rigid setup chosen for Texas.
In conclusion, the Mexican weekend remains open to any outcome. McLaren is expected to bounce back, with the impression that they made a setup misstep at the last event. Ferrari arrives on the high of its Austin one-two, but the greater importance of qualifying in Mexico doesn’t play to the strengths of the SF-24. Conversely, Red Bull was the third force in race pace in Texas, but still able to perform well on single laps. A return to victory for Verstappen would put a strong claim on the drivers’ title, while a McLaren win would strengthen its lead in the constructors’ championship.
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