Mercedes vs Ferrari in China: are the 25 seconds real? What the race pace data reveals

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari), George Russell (Mercedes W17), 2026 F1

The Chinese Grand Prix once again reignited the battle between Mercedes and Ferrari, with the race pace analysis offering a clearer picture of the performance gap between the two teams. At the Shanghai International Circuit, the race ended with the first Formula 1 victory of Kimi Antonelli, who crossed the line ahead of his Mercedes teammate George Russell.It was therefore another race controlled by the Brackley-based team, while the Ferraris once again acted as the closest challengers. The rivalry between the two historic teams continues to intensify, especially considering that the leading Ferrari finished the race 25 seconds behind the winner. But do those 25 seconds truly represent the real performance difference between the two cars? A closer look at the race pace data from the Chinese Grand Prix helps provide a more accurate answer.

Mercedes finds further confirmation

The data confirms what had already been visible throughout the race. At the moment, the Brackley team appears to be the benchmark in terms of overall race pace. Mercedes’ power unit, which currently represents the reference point on the grid, provides a significant performance advantage that approaches half a second per lap in certain conditions.

However, the engine is not the only strength of the W17. The car also benefits from an extremely competitive chassis and an aerodynamic package that works efficiently across a wide range of conditions. These elements allow the Mercedes to maintain remarkable consistency during long stints, producing competitive lap times even as fuel loads decrease and tyre wear increases. Similar signs of strength had already emerged during the opening round of the championship.

Further confirmation arrived in the early stages of the race in Shanghai. After initially losing positions due to the typical “slingshot” starts from the Ferrari cars – a characteristic made possible by the more immediate response of their turbocharger – the Silver Arrows quickly regained control of the race.

Once back in front, Mercedes steadily built a gap and demonstrated that it currently has the reference package even with a full fuel load, an aspect that had raised a few doubts during the race weekend in Melbourne.

Special credit must also go to Kimi Antonelli, who claimed his maiden Formula 1 victory in impressive fashion. The young Italian driver displayed remarkable maturity throughout the race, initially focusing on tyre management while his teammate George Russell was engaged in a tense battle with the Ferraris.

In the second half of the race, Antonelli was then able to unleash an exceptional pace, pulling away decisively and securing a victory that appeared fully deserved based on his overall performance.

Ferrari behind, but with positive signs

For the team from Maranello, the Chinese Grand Prix turned out to be a race with two very different narratives. On the one hand, Ferrari confirmed its status as the second-fastest team on the grid, maintaining a clear margin over the rest of the field. On the other hand, the race still ended with a gap of 25 seconds to the winner, despite the presence of a Safety Car period that could have compressed the field.

The average deficit, which was often above six tenths of a second per lap, does not fully explain the situation. As the race pace graph highlights, both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton recorded several lap times significantly slower than their average due to their intense and spectacular duel for the podium positions.

This internal battle inevitably influenced the overall rhythm of the Ferrari drivers and artificially increased the apparent gap compared to the leading Mercedes cars.

Nevertheless, there are also encouraging aspects for Ferrari. The SF-26, while generally around four tenths of a second slower per lap, displayed a level of consistency in the closing stages of the race that was surprisingly similar to that of the Mercedes.

This represents an important positive signal, as it underlines the car’s ability to manage tyre degradation effectively. Such behaviour is typically the result of a well-designed chassis and a solid vehicle dynamics platform, confirming that the SF-26 appears to be fundamentally well conceived from a mechanical and aerodynamic standpoint.

However, the power unit deficit compared to Mercedes remains significant. As the race progressed, the engine advantage of the German manufacturer became increasingly evident, preventing Ferrari from realistically challenging for victory, even after gaining positions at the start.

Closing this gap will require work on several fronts in Maranello. One of the key areas is the management of the hybrid system, where Mercedes’ longer experience with this specific power unit concept currently provides them with a higher level of operational efficiency compared to the rest of the grid.

This advantage is also visible when comparing Mercedes with other teams that use the same power unit architecture. At the same time, Ferrari will need to continue developing its internal combustion engine, although improvements in that area are likely to require a longer timeframe.

Looking ahead, it will also be interesting to evaluate the impact of the aerodynamic upgrades that both teams are expected to introduce over the coming months. These developments could influence the balance of performance, particularly in the corners, which currently represent one of the strongest areas of the SF-26 package.

If Ferrari manages to reduce the engine deficit while maintaining its strong mechanical platform and efficient tyre management, the battle with Mercedes could become significantly closer as the season progresses.