As Formula 1 arrives in Monaco for one of the most prestigious events on the calendar, much of the attention has centred on Ferrari. The unique characteristics of the Monte Carlo street circuit have led many inside the paddock to believe that the Scuderia could finally have its best opportunity yet to break Mercedes’ grip on the 2026 season.
Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton have been repeatedly mentioned among the leading contenders for victory, with the SF-26 expected to benefit from a layout that rewards mechanical grip, low-speed performance and driver confidence rather than outright engine power. However, not everyone is convinced Ferrari will have the Principality to itself.
According to former Formula 1 driver David Coulthard, there is another team quietly growing in confidence behind the scenes. While Ferrari has attracted most of the pre-weekend headlines, McLaren reportedly believes it has the tools necessary to challenge for victory and potentially disrupt the predictions coming from rival garages.
Ferrari may be the favourite, but McLaren is not backing down
The narrative entering Monaco has largely revolved around Ferrari’s strengths. The SF-26 has consistently shown encouraging pace in slower corners this season, while its smaller turbo configuration is expected to be less of a disadvantage around a circuit where top speed plays a reduced role.
That combination has convinced many observers that Charles Leclerc could be the man to beat at his home race. The Monegasque already has a strong record in Monaco, including multiple pole positions and an emotional victory that finally ended years of frustration in front of his home crowd.
Lewis Hamilton is also viewed as a serious contender. The seven-time world champion arrives in Monaco on the back of his strongest Ferrari performance to date after securing second place in Canada, a result that boosted confidence both inside and outside the team.
Yet despite the growing belief in Ferrari’s chances, McLaren appears unwilling to accept the role of outsider.
David Coulthard explained that conversations within the paddock suggest Ferrari is highly confident about its prospects in Monaco. However, he also revealed that people within McLaren have privately expressed a similar level of belief in their own package.
According to Coulthard, the feeling inside Woking is that McLaren has every reason to believe it can fight at the front this weekend, even if much of the spotlight has shifted toward Ferrari.
Why McLaren believes it can challenge
Although McLaren has not enjoyed the same level of attention as Ferrari ahead of Monaco, the British team has continued to make steady progress throughout the season. The MCL40 has shown flashes of strong performance and remains one of the most balanced cars on the grid.
Its potential was highlighted earlier in the season when Lando Norris delivered victory in the Miami Sprint, ending Mercedes’ perfect run across all competitive sessions. While McLaren failed to convert its pace into a stronger result in Canada due to strategic mistakes and race complications, there remains confidence that the underlying performance of the car is stronger than recent results suggest.
Former Formula 1 driver Ralf Schumacher has even suggested that McLaren could be underestimated heading into Monaco. In his view, much of the discussion has focused on Ferrari and Mercedes, allowing McLaren to fly somewhat under the radar despite the progress it has made.
That could prove valuable at a circuit where confidence, momentum and execution often matter just as much as outright pace.
Could Monaco finally end Mercedes’ winning streak?
Another intriguing aspect of the Monaco weekend is the possibility that Mercedes’ extraordinary run of success could finally come under serious threat. The Silver Arrows have dominated much of the 2026 campaign, with championship leader Kimi Antonelli and teammate George Russell consistently delivering victories and podium finishes.
However, Monaco represents a very different challenge compared to circuits like Montreal, Jeddah or Melbourne. The W17’s greatest strengths are not necessarily those most rewarded by the narrow streets of the Principality, leading several rivals to believe that Mercedes may be more vulnerable than at any previous event this season.
Coulthard suggested that Mercedes may approach the weekend with a slightly different mindset, focusing on damage limitation and strong points rather than feeling obligated to chase victory at all costs. With a long championship still ahead, securing another solid result could be more valuable than taking unnecessary risks.
That scenario could open the door for Ferrari and McLaren to fight for the top positions, creating one of the most unpredictable weekends of the season so far.
Qualifying likely to decide everything
As always in Monaco, much of the outcome will be determined on Saturday rather than Sunday. Overtaking opportunities remain extremely limited, meaning qualifying is expected to play a decisive role in shaping the race.
For Ferrari, the challenge will be converting encouraging practice pace into front-row starting positions. Charles Leclerc has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to extract exceptional speed around Monaco, while Lewis Hamilton’s record at the circuit includes multiple pole positions and victories.
McLaren faces a similar challenge. If Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri can unlock the maximum performance from the MCL40 over a single lap, they could place themselves directly in the battle with Ferrari and Mercedes.
With Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes all believing they have a realistic chance of success, Monaco is shaping up to be one of the most fascinating and competitive weekends of the 2026 Formula 1 season. The paddock may currently view Ferrari as the favourite, but the team from Woking appears determined to ensure the fight for victory remains far from straightforward.
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