We head into the Singapore GP with some uncertainty regarding the weather conditions. Although all sessions so far have been held in dry conditions, the threat of rain remains, and this will be the case for the race tonight at Marina Bay. The formation lap is scheduled for 20:00 local time.
The heavy rain that fell overnight between Friday and Saturday reset the track surface to its original condition, but between FP3 and qualifying, the circuit evolved unexpectedly. Lando Norris lowered last year’s pole time set by Carlos Sainz (1:30.984) by almost a second and a half (1:29.525).
Pirelli’s recommendations – Marina Bay Street Circuit – 62 laps
To understand the strategic scenarios we might see today at Marina Bay, let’s look at the advice Pirelli provided to teams after Friday’s official sessions: “Here in Singapore, a one-stop strategy is almost mandatory since around 28 seconds are lost during a tire change. On paper, the Medium/Hard combination should be the fastest. The predicted pit window will be between lap 21 and lap 27,” said Mario Isola to the Italian-Chinese company’s columns.
“The Soft tire could be a good option for the first stint, with the stop in this case anticipated between laps 14 and 19. Those starting further back might also opt for the Hard tire at the start. This would allow them to extend the first stint and pit between lap 37 and lap 43. Of course, given that this is a street circuit, we always have to consider potential safety car interventions. Teams will need to be ready for any eventuality,” Pirelli’s motorsport director concluded.
Soft tires are risky, a wildcard that will require some luck
We largely agree with what Mario Isola said. The Soft tire is risky, but it could also be seen as a wildcard. It’s risky because on Friday, many drivers reported graining on the C5 compound. It rained that night, and although the track was dry yesterday, with limited activities outside of Formula 1 — only the Formula 1 Academy — the track may not have rubbered in enough to ensure there’s no margin of risk.
At the same time, the Soft tire could be a valuable wildcard, especially if used effectively. Before explaining why, let’s open a parenthesis. In Singapore, overtaking is difficult, so the lead driver will have to choose between two strategies. One is the Monte Carlo-style approach, using the Medium tire, slowing the pace (acting as a bottleneck), and keeping the pack close to prevent anyone from executing an undercut. This would also protect the driver from risky situations like the arrival of a Safety Car. Alternatively, the driver could try to push forward and play for victory with a head-to-head battle against opponents.
Going into more detail, we expect Lando Norris to start on the Medium tire. This would allow him to manage the race and extend the first stint without the worry of possible safety car interventions. Max Verstappen, on the other hand, might gamble on the Soft tire. The C5 would give him the grip advantage to attack and try to take the lead in the early laps. If successful, he could then extend his lead and attempt an early pit stop, potentially unsettling McLaren’s strategy with an undercut. In that case, Lando Norris’s only hope of regaining the lead would be a Safety Car, which is highly likely in Singapore.
That said, we still recommend starting on the C4 Medium. It is the best compound for the start because it offers good competitiveness and allows for a long enough stint to respond to potential Safety Car interventions (always a possibility at Marina Bay). The Soft tire doesn’t guarantee overtaking, which is why we consider it risky. A good dose of luck will be needed for it to help gain positions and ultimately become a winning choice.
Overall, we agree with Mario Isola. Most strategies will involve a one-stop approach, using either Medium-Hard or Soft-Hard combinations, with Hard-Medium as a possibility for those starting at the back. Of course, if the Safety Car comes out at the right moments, the number of pit stops could increase.
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