Lewis Hamilton arrives at the 2026 Italian Grand Prix with more than his strong current form encouraging hopes of a major Ferrari result at Monza. The Scuderia has repeatedly performed above its normal seasonal level at its home circuit in recent years, and that pattern could give Hamilton an opportunity to fight for one of his biggest results since joining the team.
The seven-time world champion is returning to Monza for his second Italian Grand Prix as a Ferrari driver after a difficult first appearance in red last season. He qualified only 10th in 2025 but recovered to finish sixth, a result that was regarded as respectable given the broader problems he experienced during that campaign. This time, expectations are considerably higher.
Lewis Hamilton returns to Monza in much stronger form
Hamilton has performed at a much higher level throughout 2026 and heads into Ferrari’s home weekend with an average race result of 3.75. According to the figures presented, that is the strongest season average recorded by a Ferrari driver since Charles Leclerc achieved a 3.9 average in 2022.
That improvement creates obvious expectations around the British driver, particularly with a new Ferrari contract also expected soon. There is hope within the team that Hamilton can respond to that renewed confidence by delivering a major result in front of the Tifosi. The latest developments surrounding the seven-time world champion can be followed through ScuderiaFans’ Lewis Hamilton Ferrari coverage.
The significance of Monza goes beyond Hamilton’s individual form, however. Ferrari has established an interesting pattern at its home Grand Prix during the current decade: even when the team has struggled to compete consistently with Red Bull, Mercedes or McLaren across an entire season, it has often produced a stronger performance at Monza than its normal averages would suggest.
Ferrari has repeatedly outperformed its season averages at Monza
The trend becomes clear when Ferrari’s qualifying and race results at Monza since 2021 are compared with the respective season averages of its drivers.
- Charles Leclerc, 2021: average qualifying position 6.45, Monza qualifying P5; average race result 6.6, Monza result P4.
- Carlos Sainz, 2021: average qualifying position 6.70, Monza qualifying P6; average race result 8.09, Monza result P6.
- Charles Leclerc, 2022: average qualifying position 3.0, Monza qualifying P1; average race result 3.9, Monza result P2.
- Carlos Sainz, 2022: average qualifying position 4.73, Monza qualifying P18; average race result 5.1, Monza result P4.
- Charles Leclerc, 2023: average qualifying position 4.95, Monza qualifying P3; average race result 4.95, Monza result P4.
- Carlos Sainz, 2023: average qualifying position 7.6, Monza qualifying P1; average race result 5.77, Monza result P3.
- Charles Leclerc, 2024: average qualifying position 5.42, Monza qualifying P4; average race result 4.54, Monza result P1.
- Carlos Sainz, 2024: average qualifying position 5.42, Monza qualifying P5; average race result 5.65, Monza result P5.
- Charles Leclerc, 2025: average qualifying position 5.46, Monza qualifying P4; average race result 5.05, Monza result P4.
- Lewis Hamilton, 2025: average qualifying position 9.04, Monza qualifying P10; average race result 8.5, Monza result P6.
Race day is where the tendency is most pronounced. In almost every season across that period, both Ferrari drivers produced a better Monza result than their average finishing position across the championship. Carlos Sainz in 2024 and Charles Leclerc in 2023 were among the cases where the improvement was comparatively limited, but the wider pattern remains favourable.
Qualifying has been less consistent. Across the 10 driver-season comparisons listed, Ferrari beat its corresponding average qualifying result on six occasions. Even so, performances such as Charles Leclerc’s 2022 pole and Carlos Sainz’s 2023 pole demonstrate how competitive the Scuderia has been capable of becoming over a single lap at its home race.
Why Ferrari’s Monza pattern matters for Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari’s recent results suggest that Monza has often allowed the team to produce more than its overall seasonal form might predict. The enormous support from the Tifosi provides the backdrop, but the numbers themselves show the repeated tendency for the Prancing Horse to improve relative to its normal competitive position when Formula 1 arrives in Italy.
For Hamilton, the timing could hardly be more interesting. His 3.75 average finishing position this season already places him at a much stronger baseline than Ferrari drivers have carried into several previous Monza weekends. If he can improve on that average in the same way the team’s drivers regularly have at this circuit, a fight at the very front becomes a realistic target within the logic of the recent trend.
Such a result would carry particular significance. Hamilton has already won at Monza during his Formula 1 career, but victory this weekend would be his first Italian Grand Prix success as a Ferrari driver and would deliver one of the defining moments of his time with the Scuderia so far.
Ferrari upgrades could strengthen Hamilton’s Monza opportunity
The technical picture may also work in Ferrari’s favour. There had initially been doubts over whether the team’s latest ADUO developments would be ready for the Italian Grand Prix, but reporting from Italy indicates that significant updates are set to arrive for the home weekend.
The Maranello team has been preparing a broader package around the SF-26, including aerodynamic changes and the potential introduction of the latest power unit development. The details of the Ferrari Monza upgrade package show why the Italian Grand Prix has become such an important technical weekend as well as an emotional one.
Ferrari will therefore arrive with more than historical trends supporting its chances. Hamilton’s stronger 2026 form and the planned upgrades provide additional reasons for optimism as the team looks to maximise one of the most important weekends on the 2026 Formula 1 calendar.
Kimi Antonelli penalty could open another door for Ferrari
There is also an important sporting factor involving Mercedes. Kimi Antonelli is set to take a grid penalty after replacing his engine, which will force the young Italian to start from the back and potentially remove one of Hamilton’s main championship rivals from his usual position near the front of the field.
Speaking to Roger Benoit of Blick, Kimi Antonelli explained that his objective for Monza would be to minimise the damage caused by the penalty. That outlook suggests the Mercedes driver will not approach the weekend expecting to fight for victory unless the circumstances create an exceptional opportunity.
The penalty does not guarantee anything for Ferrari, but it alters the competitive picture at a circuit where the Scuderia already has a record of exceeding expectations. With one leading rival facing a compromised starting position, Hamilton has another reason to view Monza as a particularly significa
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