Lewis Hamilton could have scored another 39 points during the 2026 Formula 1 season if five Ferrari weekends had been executed more cleanly, according to former F1 driver Jolyon Palmer. Even with those additional points, however, Palmer believes the fundamental problem would remain unchanged: Ferrari has not had enough outright pace to put Hamilton in a realistic position to overturn Kimi Antonelli’s championship advantage.
Hamilton currently trails the Mercedes driver by 101 points, leaving his pursuit of a record-breaking eighth World Championship in an increasingly difficult position. The seven-time champion is ahead of Charles Leclerc in Ferrari’s internal battle, but team principal Fred Vasseur has continued to resist establishing a clear hierarchy between his two drivers.
Jolyon Palmer calculates 39 points Lewis Hamilton could have gained
Speaking on the F1 Nation podcast, Jolyon Palmer reviewed Hamilton’s season and estimated that five properly optimised weekends could have produced another 39 points. That would reduce the gap to Antonelli from 101 points to 62.
Palmer nevertheless argued that the calculation does not fundamentally change the championship picture. In his assessment, even a 62-point deficit would represent an extremely difficult margin to recover against a driver performing as strongly as Antonelli.
The former Renault driver also stressed that Ferrari’s central weakness has been performance rather than simply strategy. From Silverstone onwards, discussion repeatedly turned towards whether the Scuderia should commit its resources to Hamilton and ask Leclerc to support his title challenge. Palmer believes that debate existed largely because Ferrari did not possess enough natural pace to win races by simply executing a conventional weekend.
According to Palmer, when a team lacks the performance to beat its rivals directly, it has to create opportunities through strategy, driver management or other tactical decisions. In Ferrari’s case, however, he felt there had rarely been a genuine opening in which team orders could have been used decisively enough to transform Hamilton’s championship prospects.
The accumulation of strategic frustrations throughout Hamilton’s season has already become a recurring theme, with several examples covered in our analysis of Ferrari’s strategy decisions and Lewis Hamilton’s fading 2026 title hopes.
Ferrari pace remains the bigger problem for Hamilton
Palmer’s broader conclusion was that Ferrari simply has not been quick enough often enough. That distinction matters because the 39-point estimate is not presented as a straightforward total of points lost through bad strategy alone. Instead, it reflects five weekends in which Hamilton might have scored more with cleaner overall execution.
That includes the combined effect of maximising qualifying, strategy, race management and opportunity rather than reducing the entire deficit to one specific Ferrari error. The championship situation can therefore be viewed in two parts: points that may have been left on the table, and a larger underlying performance deficit that has prevented the Scuderia from consistently challenging Mercedes.
Hamilton’s season-long performance against Leclerc can be followed through the Charles Leclerc vs Lewis Hamilton F1 head-to-head statistics, covering their qualifying, race and championship comparison.
Why Fred Vasseur has avoided Ferrari team orders
The question of team orders has become increasingly complicated as the season has progressed. Palmer acknowledged that Fred Vasseur faces a difficult balance between supporting the driver with the stronger championship position and preserving a workable relationship with both sides of the garage.
Palmer suggested that instructing Charles Leclerc to sacrifice his own races in support of Hamilton could damage the Monegasque driver’s relationship with the team. Going in the opposite direction would create its own problem, because Hamilton has held the stronger championship position of the two Ferrari drivers and could understandably object if he were not given priority.
That leaves Vasseur in an awkward position. Ferrari has so far avoided making one driver the clear number one, but its lack of outright pace has also meant that the team-order debate has rarely become the decisive championship factor it might have appeared to be earlier in the season.
The broader title permutations can be explored using the F1 Championship Points Calculator, which shows how the remaining points can affect the Drivers’ and Constructors’ standings.
Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc rivalry could become more important in 2027
The immediate 2026 title picture may be fading, but Ferrari’s internal driver situation could become more significant next season if the team produces a genuine championship-contending car.
Reports have already described Hamilton’s relationship with Ferrari as complicated behind the scenes, with the British driver attempting to influence changes within the organisation. Vasseur, meanwhile, has largely stayed away from imposing team orders, preferring to keep both drivers operating on equal terms.
Palmer’s analysis suggests that this approach has not been the main reason Hamilton is so far behind Antonelli. The larger issue has been Ferrari’s inability to provide enough consistent performance for tactical decisions to make a decisive difference.
That could change in 2027. If the Scuderia makes the major competitive step it is seeking and both Hamilton and Leclerc begin the season with realistic championship ambitions, deciding when or whether to favour one driver could become a much more sensitive issue.
For now, Hamilton’s focus remains on extracting as much as possible from the remainder of 2026. His latest news, results and developments throughout the closing races can be followed in the Lewis Hamilton Ferrari news archive.
Palmer’s calculation puts Ferrari’s missed opportunities into perspective
The 39-point estimate gives a numerical value to the opportunities Hamilton could potentially have recovered through better-executed weekends. Adding those points would leave him 62 behind Antonelli rather than 101, significantly improving the appearance of the championship table.
Palmer’s assessment, however, is that the mathematics does not alter the underlying reality. Antonelli is performing at a very high level, while Ferrari has lacked the pace required to rely on straightforward race execution and still beat Mercedes consistently.
That is why the debate over team orders only tells part of the story. Cleaner weekends might have kept Hamilton closer, but Ferrari’s bigger task is to produce a car capable of creating genuine championship opportunities without having to manufacture them through tactics.
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