Ferrari could be forced to take further power-unit grid penalties with both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc before the end of the 2026 Formula 1 season, adding another complication to an already difficult championship run-in. With the calendar about to accelerate again, the Maranello team must decide not only whether to introduce fresh engines, but also where any resulting penalties would do the least damage.
Formula 1 has a one-week pause before entering one of the most intense phases of the championship. Baku, Sepang and Singapore are set to form a triple-header with virtually no breathing space, before the remaining rounds carry the season through to its conclusion on 6 December. In that sequence, every component, kilometre and strategic decision could become significant.
Ferrari still assessing Charles Leclerc’s ADUO-2 power unit
One of Ferrari’s most delicate issues concerns its power-unit pool. Charles Leclerc returned to the ADUO-1 specification for the Spanish Grand Prix, while checks are continuing at Maranello on the ADUO-2 unit used at Monza.
That engine remained running for an unusually long period following the accident at the Parabolica, and the inspections completed so far have not allowed Ferrari’s engineers to reach a definitive conclusion about its condition. The team has therefore decided to take additional time before determining whether the unit can safely return to service.
If the ADUO-2 is judged usable, Charles Leclerc could bring it back into rotation at one of the upcoming races. Even that outcome, however, would not completely solve Ferrari’s underlying problem because Lewis Hamilton is also expected to require another power-unit change and therefore a grid penalty. Fred Vasseur has already indicated that such a sacrifice is likely to become unavoidable.
The evolving situation around both Ferrari drivers can be followed through the dedicated Charles Leclerc coverage and Lewis Hamilton coverage.
Baku or Austin could become Ferrari’s preferred penalty races
Ferrari is believed to have enough ADUO-1 power units available to continue the championship, but relying on those engines would mean giving up the performance offered by the more advanced specification. That creates a strategic dilemma: the question is not simply whether to change an engine, but when to do so and at which circuit the grid penalty can be absorbed with the smallest possible sporting cost.
Baku is one of the most logical candidates. The Azerbaijan circuit includes a highly technical second sector that makes recovering positions difficult, but it also features the longest full-throttle section of the season. On those long straights, a more competitive power unit could provide a meaningful advantage.
That combination could make Baku a sensible location for the first switch, with Lewis Hamilton considered one of the leading candidates to take the penalty. No final decision has yet been made. Ferrari already faces a significant energy-management challenge at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, making the power-unit choice especially important.
The wider difficulties awaiting the SF-26 in Azerbaijan have also raised questions over how effectively Ferrari can limit the damage if it chooses to start one car further down the grid, particularly given the challenging Baku outlook for the current car.
Charles Leclerc could take the second penalty at Austin
Ferrari could make the second change during the same triple-header, although the more likely scenario appears to be waiting until the championship resumes with the United States Grand Prix at Austin. In that case, Charles Leclerc could be the driver selected to serve the penalty.
Another factor could influence that decision. Austin is a circuit where Lewis Hamilton has traditionally felt particularly comfortable, so deliberately compromising the British driver’s weekend there could be difficult to justify if Ferrari believes he has a stronger opportunity to recover positions or maximise the car’s performance.
That could be one reason for Ferrari to split the penalties between different events rather than treating both cars identically. The strategy is not yet settled, but the direction is becoming clearer: Fred Vasseur expects the team to encounter further “small problems” during the final part of the season.
On paper they may be small. In practice, a grid penalty is never insignificant when Ferrari is already chasing a rival with a substantial performance advantage.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s Monza recovery may not be a useful Ferrari comparison
Andrea Kimi Antonelli demonstrated at Monza that starting from the back after a power-unit replacement does not automatically mean sacrificing an entire race. The Mercedes driver was able to recover and even win.
However, using that result as a direct precedent for Ferrari would be misleading. The Mercedes W17 and its power unit currently form a more complete package than the SF-26, allowing Mercedes to recover positions with a level of effectiveness Ferrari cannot simply assume it will reproduce.
The strength of the Mercedes package has become a major part of the competitive picture, with further context available in GP-News’ analysis of the Mercedes W17 after Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s eighth victory of 2026.
Mercedes upgrades could make Ferrari’s problem even harder
There is another potentially worrying development for Ferrari and the rest of Mercedes’ rivals. Mercedes has prepared a substantial upgrade package for the coming races, with Toto Wolff describing the amount of new material as particularly significant.
If the W17 takes another step forward, Ferrari could find itself trying to recover performance at precisely the same time as it is managing engine rotations and grid penalties. That would create an awkward combination: while Mercedes potentially increases its advantage, Ferrari may have to decide race by race where to concede ground in order to have its strongest available power-unit specification when it matters most.
That is the central difficulty facing the Maranello team. The technical problem cannot be separated from the sporting one. Preserving mileage with older units protects reliability, but costs performance. Introducing fresher or more advanced hardware improves potential, but risks triggering penalties that could compromise an entire weekend.
When a team is already chasing rather than controlling the championship battle, even one deliberately compromised race can carry far greater consequences than it initially appears. Ferrari must now decide where those compromises are least damaging — and hope that the remaining power-unit mileage, the ADUO-2 assessment and the timing of its penalties all fall into place during a demanding final stretch of the 2026 season.
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