Almost all drivers will have just one set of Medium tires available, making a single pit stop the most popular strategy. However, the choice of tire for the opening stint will be crucial, as Soft tires could challenge the Mediums. Graining remains the big unknown heading into the race.
Despite the 1,700 LED panels lighting up the Las Vegas circuit, the 50-lap race will be a leap into the unknown for teams and drivers. Weather forecasts indicate a dry track, but that seems to be the only certainty engineers can rely on. Thursday’s free practice sessions were affected by a rapidly evolving track in FP1 and red flags in FP2, which prevented full-fuel runs. The situation did not improve Friday morning, with FP3 starting on Intermediate tires before switching to Softs for qualifying simulations.
As a result, only a few teams managed to complete laps with full fuel loads; for the rest, simulations for the 50-lap race will rely on theoretical data. The nightmare scenario has a name: graining. “During the few laps we completed in FP1, we saw graining on the front axle,” explained McLaren team principal Andrea Stella. “It was quite clear, but the rear tires were also not in optimal condition. In these cases, we focus on protecting the most at-risk axle. The goal is to reduce stress on the front axle, avoiding excessive steering angle, because in low-grip conditions like this track there’s a risk of damaging the tire surface and triggering graining.”
After FP1, McLaren adjusted the car setups, but there was limited opportunity to assess the effects. “In Thursday morning’s session I didn’t have great feelings,” admitted Lando Norris. “I hope the changes will bring improvements, but I’m not expecting anything exceptional.” McLaren’s doubts are shared, to varying degrees, by all teams on the grid. Adding to the complexity is the unknown factor of the Hard tire, which no team except Sauber tested in free practice. “It could be a wildcard,” admitted Max Verstappen. “If the car works well on that compound, I could be in a position to fight for the win.”
Race strategies will also remain uncertain. Pirelli has admitted that estimating stint lengths without data is difficult, but on paper, a Medium-Hard single-stop strategy is considered the fastest, with a slight advantage over a double-stop Medium-Hard-Hard plan. “However, we’ve seen that most teams decided to keep both sets of Hard tires available,” explained Mario Isola. “This is because during the few laps run on Mediums on Thursday, graining was observed.”
The opening laps of the race, likely on Medium tires, will be crucial for the overall race strategy. If the pace is high, a two-stop scenario could emerge. “If a pit stop becomes necessary between laps 12 and 18, the race will turn into a two-stopper,” confirmed Isola. “The most popular strategy is Medium-Hard-Hard, but if the final stint is around ten laps, Soft could also be an option.”
Rain overnight between Thursday and Friday prevented the track from retaining the rubber laid down during practice, so the race will start on a very “green” surface. “If drivers push hard in the early laps, either attacking or defending positions,” added Mario Isola, “graining will almost certainly appear, and at high pace it will be very difficult to clean the tires. This leads to a progressive increase in understeer, especially on the front axle. Teams will need to be very flexible and open to alternative strategies, but I believe after the first ten laps the picture will start to become clearer.”
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