The last triple-header of the 2024 Formula 1 season begins in Las Vegas, coinciding with the first match point for Max Verstappen in the World Championship. With the drivers’ title almost decided, all eyes will be on the battle for the Constructors’ Championship, with McLaren and Ferrari as the major protagonists and Red Bull still mathematically in the race. There are many reasons that make the Maranello team the clear favorite for the upcoming weekend, which should be a crucial opportunity for Ferrari to keep their World Championship hopes alive ahead of the final two rounds of the season, which will take place at the Lusail International Circuit in Qatar and the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi.
At 6201 meters, the Las Vegas street circuit is the second-longest of the season after Spa-Francorchamps. The Nevada track stands out for its four long straights, particularly the endless 2 kilometers of the Strip, with speeds reaching up to 350 km/h. However, the average speeds during qualifying laps are around 240 km/h, 10 less than Spa-Francorchamps or Silverstone, and 20 less compared to the Monza circuit. This is due to the presence of very low-speed sections, with 4 out of the 7 actual corners being taken at speeds under 100 km/h.
These corners emphasize the mechanical grip of the suspension, braking performance in a straight line, and traction out of the turns—key strengths of Ferrari’s car. On the other hand, the lack of long high-speed sections in favor of short 90° corners hides the stability issues of the Maranello car. The Ferrari is also the best car when it comes to absorbing curbs, bumps, and dips in low-speed sections, qualities that, along with the ones already mentioned, had already made the SF-24 the most competitive car at the Baku City Circuit, a track that most closely resembles Las Vegas.
Supporting Ferrari’s favorite role at the 6.2-kilometre Las Vegas Strip Circuit in Nevada is also the Maranello team’s ability to manage tire graining, a wear phenomenon expected to create difficulties for the teams this weekend on a slippery and low-abrasion track. The environmental conditions further contribute to this issue, with expected nighttime temperatures between 10 and 15°C. However, the cold could become a boomerang for Ferrari, which has struggled in the past to heat the tires quickly for the qualifying lap. The low-energy circuit does not help in this respect, as the lack of high-speed corners, the low abrasiveness of the track surface, and the low aerodynamic load configurations reduce tire heat generation.
As if that were not enough, the time spent at high speeds lowers the temperatures, with the front tires losing between 35 and 40°C on the Strip’s straight, 5°C more than on the Baku straight. A small help, however, comes from Pirelli, which, as in the 2023 edition, has imposed the highest tire pressures of the season, 28 and 26 psi for the front and rear respectively. This countermeasure helps to accelerate tire temperature, thanks to a more inflated tire with a narrower contact patch, deforming more and generating more heat. Ferrari is grateful, but repeating the pole position achieved this year in Baku or in 2023 in Las Vegas will not be easy.
In Las Vegas, the long time spent at over 300 km/h requires a reduction in drag, while the low-speed corners that rely on mechanical grip reduce the importance of aerodynamic downforce. In Nevada, teams tend to use low downforce configurations, even more extreme than those used in Azerbaijan and much closer to the ones used in Italy a the Monza circuit. In the Italian Grand Prix, Red Bull was lacking an appropriate rear wing, having to cut the mobile flap profile from the Jeddah wing. The world champions suffered a certain disadvantage compared to teams like Ferrari, which had a specific Monza wing and could bring it back to Las Vegas.
There is also great curiosity about which rear wing McLaren will choose to use this weekend in Nevada. The Woking team had also brought a specific wing for the Temple of Speed in Monza, but they opted to race with the slightly more loaded wing, which was later used at the Baku City circuit. This is the wing criticized for the mini-DRS system, with deformation on the sides of the mobile flap at high speeds, reducing drag on the straights. The advantage was quantified at less than a tenth of a second per lap, but the FIA still ordered McLaren to redesign the low downforce wing, which will debut in its new stiffened version in Las Vegas. Compared to Azerbaijan, Ferrari has an additional advantage, having equipped itself with a front wing that can flex more on the straights, gaining valuable speed.
For the occasion, the softer compounds in the Pirelli range, C3, C4, and C5, return. As is always the case on street circuits, it will be crucial to anticipate the strong evolution of the track, which will partly regress at the end of each day when the roads are reopened to urban traffic. With the barriers at the edge of the track, it becomes crucial for the drivers to make the most of every single minute of the free practice session in order to gain confidence and security, ideally without pushing too hard and risking an accident that would force them to spend a lot of time in the pits.
The key in the race will be to keep tire graining under control. Better tire management would ensure great strategic flexibility, allowing a delay in pit stops and the possibility of stopping last without risking being penalized by a subsequent Safety Car or red flag. Attention will also be required during the out-lap from the pits, as the graining risk requires a slow introduction of the new tire, but without overdoing it and losing too much time, as Charles Leclerc and Ferrari unfortunately discovered in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, when the Monegasque driver lost the lead against the McLaren MCL38 of Oscar Piastri on his first lap after returning from the pits and was not able to regain the position despite his SF24 being slightly faster.
Overall, Ferrari presents itself as the clear favorite, both due to the characteristics of the SF-24 and the effectiveness of the setups developed in Maranello for this type of circuit. Las Vegas, however, turned out to be a nightmare track for McLaren in 2023, with both cars eliminated in Q1. Since then, however, the Woking car has improved significantly, both in slow corners and in low downforce configuration efficiency.
Red Bull and Max Verstappen remain a constant threat, despite a car that, while improved, is still far from its former glory. However, in the Brazilian Gran Prix at the Interlagos circuit, the RB20 showed a convincing pace even in the dry Sprint, not to mention that in Baku Sergio Perez managed to keep up with the leading duo. Red Bull could also benefit from potential penalties for engine replacements from their competitors. McLaren, whose latest units date back to Monza, is at risk, but Charles Leclerc is even more so, as his fourth engine debuted at Zandvoort, with Ferrari’s power unit also not as durable as Mercedes’. Once again, the story of the weekend is yet to be written.
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