Kimi Antonelli expects Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc and Ferrari to present an even greater threat to Mercedes at the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix after the Scuderia exceeded expectations at Spa-Francorchamps.
The Mercedes driver defeated Charles Leclerc at the Belgian Grand Prix, but Ferrari’s competitiveness at a circuit expected to expose the SF-26’s straight-line limitations has raised anticipation ahead of Budapest. With the Hungaroring placing greater emphasis on aerodynamic performance through a sequence of connected corners, Kimi Antonelli believes Ferrari could be a formidable opponent in the final race before the summer break.
Charles Leclerc has nevertheless urged caution. Ferrari was also widely considered a leading contender before the Monaco Grand Prix, only for Mercedes and Kimi Antonelli to retain a clear advantage when the cars reached the track.
Kimi Antonelli expects a stronger Ferrari challenge in Hungary
For the second consecutive race, Kimi Antonelli found himself chasing Charles Leclerc in the battle for victory. At Silverstone, his pursuit was compromised by a wheel-shield failure, allowing Charles Leclerc to secure Ferrari’s first Grand Prix victory of the season. At Spa, however, Kimi Antonelli completed the comeback and passed the Ferrari on lap 34 of the 44-lap race.
The result gave Kimi Antonelli his sixth victory from the opening ten Grands Prix of the campaign. Although reliability problems have prevented him from scoring on two occasions, the Italian has continued to strengthen his position at the top of the drivers’ championship.
Kimi Antonelli heads to Hungary with a 45-point advantage over Lewis Hamilton, making the Budapest weekend another important opportunity to consolidate his title challenge before Formula 1 pauses for the summer break. However, the championship leader does not expect Mercedes to enjoy the same theoretical advantage it carried into Spa.
Speaking after the Belgian Grand Prix, Kimi Antonelli indicated that Ferrari’s current level of performance would make the SF-26 a particularly serious threat at the Hungaroring. He explained that Mercedes had used a lower-downforce configuration at Spa but would return to its previous specification in Budapest, where greater aerodynamic load will be required.
Kimi Antonelli stressed that Ferrari’s strength would make the weekend difficult for Mercedes and acknowledged that his team would need to maximise every practice session, qualifying and the race itself to achieve another strong result.
Why the Hungaroring could suit Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari
Spa-Francorchamps was expected to favour Mercedes because of its long straights and high power sensitivity. Ferrari entered the weekend aware that the SF-26 faced a disadvantage in straight-line performance and electrical energy deployment, yet Charles Leclerc still finished less than two seconds behind Kimi Antonelli.
The Scuderia’s approach involved accepting additional drag in exchange for stronger performance through the fast corners of the middle sector. More detail on that compromise can be found in the technical analysis of Ferrari’s Belgian Grand Prix package.
Budapest presents a different challenge. The Hungaroring is dominated by a tightly connected series of corners, with fewer long full-throttle sections than Spa. Aerodynamic balance, direction changes and the ability to maintain consistent performance through medium-speed sequences are therefore likely to carry greater importance.
Those characteristics appear more favourable to Ferrari based on the SF-26’s performance through the corners at Spa. The Belgian weekend had already provided a demanding test of the car under the FIA’s revised energy-management restrictions, which are explained in the report on the 2026 MGU-K management challenge.
Lewis Hamilton also brings an exceptional record to the Hungarian Grand Prix. The Ferrari driver has won eight times at the Hungaroring, twice as many as Michael Schumacher, the next most successful driver at the circuit. Budapest is Lewis Hamilton’s second most productive Formula 1 venue, behind only Silverstone, where he has claimed nine victories.
That history does not guarantee Ferrari a competitive advantage in 2026, but it adds another significant element to a weekend that could suit both the car and the driver more naturally than Spa.
Andrea Stella also views Ferrari as the likely Budapest benchmark
Kimi Antonelli is not alone in expecting Ferrari to challenge Mercedes. McLaren team principal Andrea Stella also identified the Scuderia as a potential benchmark for the Hungarian Grand Prix after observing the SF-26’s cornering performance at Spa.
Andrea Stella suggested that Ferrari could return to the front in both Hungary and the Netherlands, where the layouts place less emphasis on outright straight-line speed. His assessment was based on the competitiveness Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc displayed through the corners during the Belgian weekend.
Ferrari had initially approached Spa with measured expectations because of the circuit’s characteristics. Charles Leclerc explained before the event that the team understood the challenge posed by the long straights, while still hoping its cornering performance would keep it competitive. Ferrari’s pre-race position is covered in the report on Charles Leclerc’s expectations for Spa.
By finishing second with Charles Leclerc and fourth with Lewis Hamilton, despite a penalty, car damage and a disrupted pit stop for the seven-time world champion, Ferrari emerged from Belgium with stronger evidence that it could challenge Mercedes on a broader range of circuits.
Charles Leclerc warns against declaring Ferrari the favourite
Charles Leclerc is resisting suggestions that Ferrari should automatically be considered the team to beat in Budapest. During the post-race press conference at Spa, the Monegasque driver recalled that expectations had been similarly high before Monaco earlier in the season.
Ferrari appeared well suited to the slow and medium-speed demands of Monte Carlo, leading many observers to predict that the team would set the pace. Once qualifying began, however, Charles Leclerc remained approximately two and a half tenths of a second behind pole-sitter Kimi Antonelli, who then controlled the Grand Prix for Mercedes.
Charles Leclerc therefore emphasised that accurately predicting the competitive order remains extremely difficult. In his view, Ferrari’s experience in Monaco showed why conclusions based solely on circuit characteristics should be treated carefully.
Mercedes’ advantage in power-unit performance has attracted considerable attention during the first half of the season, but Charles Leclerc believes the team must not be underestimated in other areas. Kimi Antonelli’s Monaco victory demonstrated that Mercedes can remain highly competitive even at circuits where engine performance is not expected to be the decisive factor.
Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur has adopted a similarly restrained public approach to the championship, avoiding major declarations despite the team’s improving form. The reasoning behind that position is explored in the analysis of whether Ferrari is deliberately playing down its title ambitions.
Hungarian GP could shape the title fight before summer break
The Hungarian Grand Prix arrives at an important point in the season. Kimi Antonelli has won six races and holds a 45-point championship lead, but his two non-scores have shown how quickly reliability can alter the standings.
Lewis Hamilton remains his closest challenger and will arrive at one of his strongest circuits after showing encouraging pace at Spa despite floor damage and a five-second penalty. Charles Leclerc has also won at Silverstone and pushed Kimi Antonelli until the closing laps in Belgium, reinforcing Ferrari’s recent progress.
Kimi Antonelli’s assessment offers genuine encouragement to Ferrari supporters, but Charles Leclerc’s caution provides an equally important counterpoint. The Hungaroring may suit the SF-26 on paper, yet Monaco showed that Mercedes cannot be discounted simply because a circuit places less emphasis on power.
The decisive question will be whether Ferrari can convert its theoretical aerodynamic strengths and Lewis Hamilton’s exceptional Budapest record into a complete weekend. Kimi Antonelli expects a difficult contest, while Charles Leclerc is determined to wait for the track action before accepting Ferrari’s status as favourite.
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