Ferrari heads into the Monaco Grand Prix carrying a level of optimism that has been largely absent throughout much of the 2026 Formula 1 season. Although the Scuderia has yet to return to the top step of the podium since the 2024 Mexico City Grand Prix, there is a growing feeling within the paddock that Monte Carlo could provide the perfect opportunity to reverse that trend.
While Ferrari has often struggled against rivals on circuits where outright power and top speed play a decisive role, Monaco represents a completely different challenge. The narrow street circuit places far greater emphasis on chassis performance, driver confidence and mechanical grip, areas where the SF-26 has repeatedly shown encouraging signs.
That belief is shared by several prominent figures across Formula 1. Kimi Antonelli recently identified Ferrari as a genuine contender for victory in Monaco despite Mercedes’ strong run of form, while McLaren team principal Andrea Stella has also pointed to the underlying strength of Ferrari’s chassis package.
Canadian GP data provides an important clue
Former Formula 1 driver Jolyon Palmer believes the evidence supporting Ferrari’s Monaco credentials was already visible during the Canadian Grand Prix weekend.
Analysing the performance data from Montreal, Palmer highlighted how Lewis Hamilton consistently excelled in the opening sector of the lap, a section that shares several characteristics with Monaco. Unlike the final part of the Canadian circuit, where engine performance and straight-line speed become increasingly important, the first sector rewards balance, agility and driver confidence through a sequence of technical corners.
According to Palmer’s assessment, Lewis Hamilton’s pace in that area should not be overlooked.
The former Renault driver noted that Lewis Hamilton was the fastest driver of all through the opening sector during Sprint Qualifying. Even in the main qualifying session, the seven-time Formula 1 world champion remained closely matched with Kimi Antonelli through the first two sectors before losing ground in the final sector, where Ferrari’s power unit limitations became more apparent.
That pattern has fuelled suggestions that Monaco could play directly into Ferrari’s hands.
Why Ferrari’s weakness may barely matter in Monaco
One of Ferrari’s biggest challenges this season has been a deficit in straight-line performance compared to Mercedes and some of its other rivals. On power-sensitive circuits, that weakness has often prevented Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc from fully exploiting the strengths of the SF-26.
Monaco, however, is unique.
The famous street circuit features very few full-throttle sections and places significantly less emphasis on engine power than almost any other venue on the Formula 1 calendar. Instead, success is determined by traction, low-speed cornering ability, precision and driver confidence around the barriers.
These are all areas where Ferrari has frequently looked competitive.
The low-speed nature of the circuit could therefore neutralise one of the Scuderia’s main disadvantages while allowing its strongest qualities to shine. It is one of the reasons why several paddock insiders believe Ferrari could emerge as one of the favourites for victory next weekend.
Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc both have reasons for confidence
For Lewis Hamilton, the Canadian Grand Prix represented a significant step forward. His second-place finish was widely regarded as his strongest performance since joining Ferrari, and perhaps more importantly, it demonstrated a growing level of comfort with the car.
The seven-time world champion looked increasingly confident throughout the weekend and extracted impressive pace in sections of the circuit that required strong chassis performance rather than pure power.
Charles Leclerc also enters the Monaco weekend with considerable expectations on his shoulders. The Monegasque driver has repeatedly delivered exceptional performances around his home circuit and remains one of the most naturally gifted drivers on the grid when it comes to extracting maximum performance in qualifying.
If Ferrari can provide both drivers with a competitive package, the team could find itself in a strong position to challenge for pole position and potentially victory.
A major test for Mercedes
The Monaco Grand Prix will not only reveal Ferrari’s true potential but could also answer important questions about Mercedes.
Much of Mercedes‘ success this season has been attributed to its impressive power unit performance, particularly on circuits that reward top speed. However, Antonelli recently argued that the strength of the Mercedes chassis has been underestimated and deserves far greater recognition.
Monaco will provide the ideal environment to test that theory. If Mercedes remains competitive despite the reduced importance of horsepower, it would demonstrate that the Brackley-based team possesses a far more complete package than many observers believe.
For Ferrari, though, the objective is clear. After a lengthy wait for victory, Monaco may finally offer the ideal conditions for Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc to convert the SF-26’s strengths into a race-winning performance and end the Scuderia’s drought in one of Formula 1’s most prestigious events.
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