In 2022, Ferrari president John Elkann set a clear target: Ferrari would return to winning the Formula 1 Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships by 2026. Four years later, that deadline has arrived. An entire technical era has ended, a new Formula 1 regulation cycle has begun, and Maranello is once again being forced to push its title ambitions further into the future.
The significance of that statement has only grown with time. John Elkann was not simply expressing confidence that Ferrari would eventually become competitive again. He identified a specific horizon for the return to championship success. Now, with the 2026 season under way and Ferrari still chasing the benchmark, that promise inevitably returns to the centre of the discussion.
How Ferrari’s 2026 title promise began in 2022
It was 2022 when Formula 1 opened a new technical cycle built around the return of ground-effect aerodynamics and Venturi tunnels. Ferrari began that season strongly, putting Red Bull under serious pressure during the opening races and creating the impression that Maranello might finally be ready to fight consistently for something significant again.
For a time, the championship looked very different from those that had preceded it. Ferrari had a competitive car and appeared capable of challenging at the front. But the balance gradually shifted as the season developed.
Red Bull, designed under the technical direction of Adrian Newey, made increasingly obvious progress. Reliability improvements were accompanied by a progressive reduction in the car’s weight, while aerodynamic development helped turn the RB18 into the reference package. What had initially appeared to be a genuine contest gradually developed into dominance.
Ferrari moved in the opposite direction. Its development programme was less effective, and updates did not consistently produce the gains that had been expected. At the same time, the power unit had to be managed extremely carefully because of reliability concerns. Ferrari could not continuously operate the engine in its most aggressive conditions, creating a tangible restriction on the team’s competitive ambitions.
The technical evolution of Ferrari’s Formula 1 cars and the areas that continue to determine their performance can be followed through our Ferrari technical analysis coverage.
The outcome in 2022 was second place in the Constructors’ Championship and, already by the middle of the campaign, a growing sense that Ferrari’s journey back towards a Formula 1 title would be considerably longer than the strong opening races had suggested.
It was during that period, with the championship increasingly moving in Red Bull’s direction at Milton Keynes, that John Elkann chose to discuss Ferrari’s future. The Ferrari president attached a precise date to those ambitions: 2026.
John Elkann’s Ferrari promise reaches its 2026 deadline
John Elkann expressed confidence at the time that Ferrari would once again win both the Constructors’ and Drivers’ Championships by 2026, referring to the new Formula 1 regulatory cycle that was due to begin that year.
The importance of the statement was clear. It went beyond saying that Ferrari would improve or return to contention. A specific timeframe had been identified in which the Prancing Horse was expected to become a championship-winning organisation again. That timeframe has now arrived.
In the years since, an entire technical era has come to an end without Ferrari winning either championship. The title did not arrive with Carlos Sainz, it has not arrived with Charles Leclerc, and it has not arrived with Lewis Hamilton, who joined Maranello during the final phase of the previous regulatory framework.
More importantly, the beginning of the new technical cycle has, at least so far, failed to deliver the decisive change that had been presented as the objective four years earlier. Ferrari has again found itself chasing competitors that interpreted the regulatory transition more effectively.
The problem is not confined to chassis design or aerodynamics. Once again, the competitiveness of Ferrari’s power unit relative to the category benchmark has emerged as an important limitation. The result is familiar: the original horizon is reached, but expectations are moved further forward.
Why Ferrari is already looking towards 2027
Attention is now increasingly turning towards 2027. Maranello is expected to undertake important work on its engine, with different principles and technical solutions compared with the current power unit. From an engineering perspective, that is a perfectly legitimate direction. Formula 1 development never stops, and a team that identifies areas where it can improve has to work towards solving them.
Ferrari is also continuing to develop the current SF-26 because much of that work can remain useful for the following season. The connection between the two programmes is explained in greater detail in our analysis of why SF-26 development can still contribute to Ferrari’s 2027 Formula 1 car.
The problem, however, is not that Ferrari wants to develop another car or build a better engine. The problem is the recurring need to accompany almost every new technical project with another suggested deadline for victory.
That is the central issue. Four years have passed since the 2026 target was established, and Ferrari once again finds itself explaining why the right moment could be the next one. Questions surrounding the current car have therefore become inseparable from the longer-term debate, with the Scuderia’s SF-26 development direction and 2027 outlook already coming under increasing scrutiny.
Ferrari’s long title drought highlights a recurring problem
During this period, drivers have changed. Engineers have changed. Technical managers and operational structures have changed. The cars are different, the regulations have changed, development methodologies have evolved and even the people entrusted with directing Ferrari’s sporting project have been replaced.
Yet the final outcome has remained strikingly similar.
Ferrari continues to encounter structural difficulties while operating under a level of pressure that makes any rebuilding process particularly complicated. The contradiction is obvious. Maranello needs time to construct a genuinely stable and competitive organisation, yet it rarely appears to have enough time to complete that process without expectations escalating around the next major project.
The media demands results. Supporters are tired of repeatedly postponing their hopes of seeing Ferrari win another championship. Every new car, technical regulation or major development programme therefore risks being presented almost immediately as the decisive opportunity that will finally end the wait.
That creates a cycle in which expectations become progressively greater. When those expectations are not met, disappointment grows accordingly, and attention then shifts towards the next car, the next engine or the next regulatory opportunity.
Ferrari approaches two decades without a Drivers’ Championship
Ferrari is moving closer to the 20th anniversary of its most recent Drivers’ Championship, won by Kimi Raikkonen in 2007. The most recent Constructors’ Championship followed in 2008.
Those dates require little embellishment. They demonstrate on their own just how long Maranello’s championship drought has become. And perhaps that is precisely why Ferrari would benefit from making fewer predictions about when the next title will arrive.
When John Elkann identified 2026 as the deadline for Ferrari to return to championship success, the Ferrari president created a fixed reference point that has now become another promise requiring explanation. With hindsight, avoiding such a precise deadline might have been more appropriate, allowing performance on the circuit to determine when Ferrari was genuinely ready to challenge for Formula 1’s biggest prizes.
Ferrari cannot put a date on becoming competitive
A serious technical project cannot be constructed around a date communicated to supporters. There is no fixed calendar for competitiveness. A team cannot simply determine that a championship will necessarily arrive in 2026, 2027 or 2028.
What Ferrari can do is build a stronger organisation, identify and correct mistakes, improve the car, develop the power unit and create the conditions in which winning becomes possible. Those are processes that can be planned, measured and improved. The exact moment when they produce a World Championship cannot be guaranteed in advance.
Perhaps that would now represent the most credible message Ferrari could offer its supporters: not another date, but an explanation of the process. Instead of creating another appointment with a future World Championship, Maranello can concentrate on constructing the conditions required to bring that championship back.
Ferrari will probably win again sooner or later. The deeper issue is the repeated attempt to tell supporters when that victory is supposed to arrive, rather than demonstrating through performance and progress why the team is finally ready to achieve it.
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