F1 journalist Will Buxton is backing Lewis Hamilton to take victory at the Japanese Grand Prix. While this is, of course, not an official prediction, following his first podium with Ferrari and the renewed enthusiasm – if we can call it that – the chances, or at least the hopes, of seeing it happen again have increased.
The seven-time world champion is no stranger to the podium at Suzuka. Alongside Max Verstappen, he is one of the most successful drivers on this track, having won four times: in 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018, all behind the wheel of a Mercedes.
Looking at the current season after the Chinese GP, the question grows louder: can Ferrari realistically try to “steal” the victory from Toto Wolff’s team, or will we once again hear the German anthem?
Ferrari vs Mercedes: where the race will be decided
Answering this is far from simple – it’s like searching for a needle in a haystack. What is clear, unless Red Bull or McLaren introduce significant upgrades, is that the battle will be between Ferrari and Mercedes. Focusing only on these two teams, each has advantages on different parts of the Suzuka layout.
For the German team, the obvious strength lies in engine power, which comes into play on the straights, allowing their drivers to pull away from rivals. At Suzuka, Mercedes will benefit in the final sector, particularly along the straight between Turns 14 and 15.
Meanwhile, the Chinese GP highlighted a Ferrari advantage: strong performance in medium- and high-speed corners. On that occasion, careful energy recovery allowed the Scuderia drivers to attempt overtakes and even battle among themselves.
The duel in Shanghai kept fans on the edge of their seats, even overshadowing debates about the new generation of cars. It also emphasized Lewis Hamilton’s renewed comfort with the car, aided – one could say – by a track that suits him. Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc struggled on a circuit he himself described as “terrible.”
Buxton backs Hamilton and explains why
Will Buxton shared his insight on the Up To Speed podcast. The advantage Ferrari showed in medium- and high-speed corners in China could be a key factor at Suzuka. “I’m backing Ferrari,” he said, “because on the medium-speed corners we saw in China, the car looked very competitive.”
Attention then turns to the Silver Arrows, where their strength is evident in onboard footage. “Mercedes clearly has the advantage on the straights,” Buxton continues. “You can see it from George Russell and Kimi Antonelli’s onboard footage on the long back straight.”
He adds: “I hope Suzuka’s medium-speed corners favor Ferrari and that we get a battle longer than just the first ten laps. If Ferrari nails the strategy, they could hold off Mercedes for longer.”
Buxton’s comments come not only from support for the British driver, but also because after just two races, the season’s likely frontrunners are becoming clear. He acknowledges that it might seem risky not to back a Brackley driver, yet concludes: “That said, I’m backing Lewis Hamilton for the win.”
Strategy and management: the true keys at Suzuka
Among Buxton’s words, one stands out as crucial for understanding the Japanese GP: strategy. While not giving a definitive answer, it highlights that combining various factors effectively could decide the winner.
Suzuka is an old-school, technical, and narrow circuit, making overtaking difficult. Last year, dirty air played a major role; this year, with fewer zones where cars can run in straight mode, other factors gain importance.
F1 and the FIA have limited straight mode to just two sections: the start/finish straight and the final straight. Drivers must manage both energy and tire wear carefully. With wings only opening in two spots, cars remain planted for most of the track, while constant direction changes stress the tires.
Pirelli is bringing the hardest compounds available – C1, C2, and C3 – adding to the challenge on a technical circuit. For Ferrari, taking the lead early, especially if they fail to qualify on the front row, could offer a tire management advantage. Conversely, if Mercedes leverages their engine power, it may impact tire wear less, but their W17’s handling through constant direction changes must be carefully monitored.
The Japanese GP will not just be about raw speed, but a race decided by tenths of a second and mechanical endurance. If Lewis Hamilton is to turn Buxton’s prediction into reality, Ferrari must be perfect, resisting Mercedes when the straights allow full use of the wings. Will the Italian anthem play at sunrise this time? Let’s hope it’s red, not gray.
The upcoming weekend is therefore shaping up to be a tactical masterclass between the hybrid efficiency of Mercedes and the aero-stability of Ferrari. Based on the content of the early season races, the “S” Curves of Suzuka will serve as the ultimate judge of which technical philosophy is superior.
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