This season, Ferrari fans have reveled in the performances put in by Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr on Fridays and Saturdays, with the Monégasque certainly showcasing the raw pace to be pulled from the F1-75. However, seldom has this early weekend success translated into a cheering Scuderia contingent on Sundays.
A front row of red hasn’t been uncommon, as Sports Illustrated documents, but it all too often is washed away by the tide of dark blue regardless of where the Red Bulls start. Changes have been made before the halfway mark to attempt to give Leclerc a better shot at converting poles into the top of the podium, but is it already too late?
Single-lap prowess leading to race day jitters
After a blistering start that looked to assert Ferrari as the new superpower alongside Red Bull in the twilight of Lewis Hamilton’s career, the wheels started to come off with a disappointing runout at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. The issues have perpetuated to the point that the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the eighth race of the season, saw Leclerc become the first racer since Juan Pablo Montoya to fail to convert pole into a win in four consecutive races.
This certainly hasn’t been the fault of Leclerc, for the most part. There’s a case to be made for Red Bull boasting a lot more straight-line speed and being less taxing on the tires, but component reliability and strategies have also cost Ferrari. Still, the Formula One website sees the Canadian Grand Prix as a potential turning point; Leclerc converted 19th into fifth and has a new power unit now.
There is a slight inkling that Leclerc also has a problem with retaining first place when given pole. GP Fans did a deep dive into the Monaco man’s win rate after claiming pole, with 15 career poles – up to the 2022 GP in Baku – resulting in just four wins or a 26.67 percent win rate. By the Monaco GP this year, he and Verstappen tied on poles, but the Dutchman held first for ten of those 14 races, hitting a 71.43 percent win rate.
Of course, Verstappen and Leclerc have had very different careers despite both being highly touted as youngsters and now only 24 years old. Ferrari is only now looking like a true World Championship contender after years of rebuilding, while Verstappen broke into a very competitive team. As Ferrari improves, so too should Leclerc’s conversion rate of poles into wins.
Is it too late for Leclerc to snag the title?
After a throwaway Bahrain GP and retiring in Australia, Verstappen has looked indomitable on race day. Departing the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, his 46-point lead over teammate Sergio Pérez presents quite the gap for Leclerc, who trails in third. This is why the sportsbook oddsmakers at Mr Green have Leclerc out at 23/4 to mount a comeback for the ages and topple the 1/6 standings leader.
Given the gap, however, those odds are somewhat hopeful for Ferrari’s frontman. After all, there are plenty of races left, Leclerc has only missed out on pole in three of nine races, and improvements have been made to the car. The fact that Pérez is out at 17/1 and the two Mercedes drivers at 35/1, the experts see this as a two-horse race if improvements from Ferrari can be showcased in the next couple of meets.
While he billed it as “frustrating,” the Canadian Grand Prix could be the turning point for Leclerc if pit stops can get up to speed and the team’s strategies become a bit less erratic.
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