Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari, a partnership the British driver had eyed on multiple occasions, openly expressing his desire to race for the Italian team. However, he consistently renewed his contracts with Mercedes, until this February. This decision is likely the most ambitious of his career, and possibly one of the most uncertain. The performance of Mercedes under the new 2022 Formula One regulations has not lived up to expectations.
Lewis Hamilton has not felt particularly comfortable with his cars over the past two years, following an era of dominance that was only interrupted by Red Bull and Max Verstappen in Abu Dhabi in 2021. Despite finishing the 2023 season just three points ahead of Ferrari, Mercedes’ performance trend in the latter half of the season was not as positive as that of Maranello’s team, which came close to surpassing them in the constructors’ standings.
This was likely one of the main reasons Lewis Hamilton decided to sign a contract with Ferrari. The start of the year was quite concerning for Mercedes. The seven-time Formula One world champion was critical of the car and the team from the outset, making his move to Italy seem almost prophetic. However, everything changed at this season’s Canadian Grand Prix. Here, Mercedes finally found the right development direction after consistently lagging behind under the new regulations due to upgrades that failed to deliver. To date, Hamilton has won two of the last three races and has been on the podium four times out of five.
At this point, the British driver might have doubts about his decision. He may even regret leaving his “family” to take on a new challenge with Ferrari. Even more concerning for Lewis is that Ferrari has stagnated since the Monaco Grand Prix. Ferrari introduced a new upgrade package at Imola, which was expected to be decisive in the title fight. However, Ferrari has secured only two podium finishes, and those were due to external circumstances rather than their own merits.
One podium came from Carlos Sainz in Austria after an incident involving Lando Norris and Max Verstappen, and the other from Charles Leclerc in the most recent race at Spa after George Russell’s disqualification. Without Russell’s disqualification in Belgium, the gap between Ferrari and Mercedes would be even smaller. Without the disqualification, it would have been 58 points when just six races ago, the gap was 128 points. Even with that disqualification, Mercedes still scored more points than Ferrari in Belgium solely through Lewis Hamilton’s victory.
The only significant hope is that in terms of qualifying pace, both Mercedes and Ferrari are very close. Mercedes has closed the gap with Ferrari’s one-lap pace since Canada. Using Max Verstappen as a reference, having been the pole sitter for the first seven races of the year, this is an excellent trend. In terms of race pace, Mercedes has proven to be much more solid than Ferrari lately.
On circuits with very different characteristics and in changing track conditions, the Brackley team is much more consistent than the Italians, who have yet to find the right balance for the SF24. This inconsistency has also affected the box with Charles Leclerc, who, since his win in Monaco, has been rather disappointing until a few races ago. The Monegasque driver remains third in the drivers’ championship. Since his victory in Monaco, Lewis Hamilton has reduced the gap to Charles Leclerc by about 11 points per race.
A significant difference that perfectly reflects reality. Lewis Hamilton is comfortable and in a competitive car, while Charles Leclerc is uncomfortable with an inconsistent car that currently cannot compete with McLaren, Mercedes, and Red Bull. Mercedes’ resurgence has surprised everyone, including Lewis Hamilton, who, after seeing a poor start to the season from Mercedes and a Ferrari capable of competing with Red Bull in terms of race pace, would have been more than happy with his decision. But in just five races, the story is now very different. It’s true that the performance gap between Ferrari and Mercedes is not insurmountable.
A good aerodynamic upgrade package could bring Maranello’s team back into the race, but budgets are increasingly limited. Moreover, the major upgrade introduced by the Maranello technicians at the Imola circuit in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix did not yield the results Ferrari had hoped for. With less than half the season remaining and with a 2025 Formula One season under the same regulations, Mercedes seems to be in a very favorable position to finish the year in a strong position. Additionally, the Brackley team could have a solid foundation to fight for the 2025 championship.
