After just one free practice session—like Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton, and George Russell—Max Verstappen was the fastest driver on Friday, driving the Red Bull. The Mexican Grand Prix weekend takes place at over 2,200 meters above sea level, but the pressure is intense: the Dutchman cannot afford mistakes, while the McLaren duo must focus on two different rivals as well as themselves. As highlighted before the weekend, execution will be key, and the small gaps seen in FP2 confirm that. The second session also offered two distinct pictures depending on fuel load: on the single lap, no one came close to Verstappen’s pace, particularly in the central sector, where high-speed load and balance are tested. In contrast, in the race simulations at the end of the session, Norris’ pace on soft tires was untouchable, even compared to Oscar Piastri, who showed difficulties reminiscent of his previous weak points. Friday left the impression that the battle between Max Verstappen and the McLarens could still include Ferrari or Mercedes, with track evolution likely playing a major role in qualifying.
McLaren inconsistent between qualifying and race pace? Piastri continues to struggle
The final standings did not favor the McLaren drivers: Norris finished fourth, while Oscar Piastri ended only in thirteenth. Is the MCL39 struggling on a single lap? Telemetry reveals that the difference between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris in sector one is minimal, attributable mainly to the RB21’s better straight-line efficiency. In sector two, Verstappen makes the difference exiting turn six, partly due to a small mistake by Norris. In the second half of the Englishman’s best lap, further errors appear—particularly through the esses and stadium section—also affected by tire life, as his C5 tires had already completed a flying lap. Extracting McLaren’s full potential in these conditions is difficult, but the car had the pace to challenge Red Bull. “It’s just a matter of car balance; it’s a bit unstable. It’s the same as the past weeks; right now we only have issues on the single lap,” Norris said. Today’s qualifying will be decided by each driver’s ability to maximize their car. The MCL39’s performance in the central sector, a challenging high-altitude section, could make the difference.
Race simulations highlighted McLaren’s superiority, but other factors should not be discounted. No one matched Norris’ long-run pace on the soft tires; the closest was Piastri, six-tenths behind on the same compound. The Australian struggled throughout the session in sector two, particularly in the complex Snake section. Overusing the tires to limit losses there reduces competitiveness in sector three, affecting both single-lap pace—which Oscar Piastri described as “modest”—and laps with heavy fuel loads. Other teams mainly used the medium compound for race simulations, and with limited track grip, this may have been significant: Mercedes and Ferrari (Russell and Leclerc) were roughly six-tenths behind McLaren, slightly ahead of Red Bull. “On the medium tire, the long run was not exceptional, and that is our main issue. Obviously, this worries us for the race. The balance wasn’t absent, just a lack of grip,” Max Verstappen commented.
As Red Bull’s Head of Racing, Gianpiero Lambiase, explained, “Track temperatures just below 50 degrees are making life very difficult, both for cooling the PU and brakes, and for tire performance. The current challenge is finding the right balance between internal and surface tire temperatures. We are not yet satisfied with tire degradation or thermal management.” In hotter races this year, McLaren has shown how improved cooling and tire management can provide an advantage. Friday’s FP2 in Mexico confirmed this advantage, though other factors, such as track position, will be crucial in the race.
Ferrari: SF-25 strong on single lap but potential to be confirmed
In FP2, just 0.15 seconds separated Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, a gap mainly in sector two, where the Monegasque lost 127 thousandths to the #1. Telemetry shows the deficit stems from the first part of the sector, especially turn six: despite Charles Leclerc short-shifting to improve rotation, the RB21 gained nearly a tenth on exit. In the same section, Lewis Hamilton approached Verstappen’s reference without using second gear, a potential method to limit losses. In the slow first-sector chicane, Max Verstappen was faster, showing Red Bull’s improvements but also SF-25 limitations, though Ferrari’s higher top speed on the adjacent straights remained competitive. The SF-25 performed well in the Snake and sector three, where Charles Leclerc set the best time. Hamilton lost a tenth to his teammate despite a positive tow in sector one and will need to manage tires carefully throughout the lap.
Long runs saw slightly different approaches: Charles Leclerc pushed immediately on the tires, paying the price in later laps with increased LiCo and traffic, while Hamilton followed Antonelli throughout his stint, resulting in less competitive times. Overall, Ferrari showed good pace, stronger on single laps than in race simulations, where adjustments remain necessary. The key will be confirming the potential to stay with the leading group and compete for podiums: telemetry shows no significant PU advantage compared to other teams, and Friday’s qualifying simulation speed was not due to aggressive setups. Red Bull has historically made major improvements from Friday to Saturday, which will be essential to challenge McLaren. Otherwise, Ferrari, alongside Mercedes, could remain in contention and fight for a podium.
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