It had been clear for some time that the first wet race of the 2026 Formula 1 season would present a major challenge, but the specific characteristics of the Canadian Grand Prix weekend could make a rain-affected race even more problematic than expected. Low temperatures and Montreal’s low-energy layout would create a particularly difficult environment, while reduced aerodynamic load and power units that remain difficult to manage in slippery conditions only add to the uncertainty. However, the biggest concern appears to be tyre behaviour in the cold.
Formula 1 had already taken precautions earlier this season in Miami by moving the race start forward to avoid heavy rain and lightning risk. This time, however, the situation appears very different, and while the latest forecasts have become slightly less alarming, the possibility of a genuinely wet Canadian Grand Prix remains real. Under normal circumstances, a wet Formula 1 race would not be unusual, but one crucial detail makes this scenario particularly concerning: this would be the first proper wet-weather running of the season, meaning teams are entering largely unknown territory.
That uncertainty is arguably what concerns drivers and engineers most. The expected wet-weather challenges are being added to the grip limitations and tyre warm-up problems already visible throughout the weekend, creating a potentially chaotic mix. Pierre Gasly even described the prospect of the race becoming something close to an elimination contest, where simply surviving to the chequered flag could become the main objective.
So what exactly is driving these concerns? First of all, there is the issue of the cars themselves. Most of the grid has not completed even a single meaningful lap in genuine wet conditions this season, meaning Sunday’s race could effectively become the first real test of the new-generation Formula 1 machinery in the rain. Drivers will naturally adapt, but this remains a completely new technical package with many unanswered questions.
100 kW less to make the cars easier to control
“These cars are not what they should be in the wet. You already have less aerodynamic load, and a hybrid engine is harder to manage compared to a V8. It’s less reactive in wet conditions, especially with the power units we have now. It will be much more difficult,” said Max Verstappen.
Because a Rain Hazard has been declared, electric power output would be capped at 250 kW if conditions turn wet, and drivers would also lose access to overtaking boost deployment. These measures were introduced directly in response to driver feedback, as multiple competitors had warned that reduced aerodynamic grip combined with the near-instant torque delivery of electric power could make the cars extremely difficult to control in wet conditions.
While removing 100 kW of peak electric power should help, drivers appear more worried about another issue entirely: tyres. This year’s smaller tyre construction has already raised questions, and those who tested the wet-weather compounds during Pirelli development sessions were not especially enthusiastic, reporting significant warm-up difficulties along with an elevated risk of aquaplaning.
“From what I’ve seen, it could turn into a very eventful race. So I think it will be important just to see the chequered flag. I don’t want to say too much, but if it’s wet, I expect really difficult conditions. I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes a kind of elimination race,” Pierre Gasly said ahead of the Canadian Grand Prix.
Oscar Piastri also suggested that even simulation work has not provided engineers with complete confidence, underlining just how many unknowns remain.
The tyre issue: getting them into the window
Lewis Hamilton is one of the few drivers with direct experience of the 2026 wet-weather tyres. The Ferrari driver first sampled them during pre-season testing in Barcelona, although the extreme cold made those sessions less representative, before getting another opportunity during private Ferrari running at Fiorano. While Fiorano is a versatile testing venue, it is not necessarily ideal for replicating the demands of a modern Formula 1 circuit like Montreal.
Even so, Lewis Hamilton was able to gather enough information to push for changes. As already mentioned earlier this season in Miami, the seven-time world champion successfully lobbied Pirelli to increase the tyre blanket temperature for intermediate tyres from 60°C to 70°C. Likewise, the full wet tyre—originally intended to function without tyre blankets—can now also be pre-heated, albeit only to 40°C.
The purpose of these adjustments is clearly safety, making it easier for drivers to bring the tyres into their working range in the opening laps. However, Lewis Hamilton made it clear that more development is still needed.
“From my test at Fiorano, I pushed Pirelli to raise the tyre blanket temperatures. They did that. And from the test I also pushed them to introduce blankets for the full wets, which they also did. But it’s still not enough—there’s still a lot of work to do.”
A wet race would undoubtedly shake up the competitive order, but it would also introduce a major strategic gamble. In Miami, even rain would likely have occurred in relatively warm conditions, making tyre warm-up less of a challenge. Montreal is the exact opposite. The track surface offers limited grip, there are very few corners capable of generating substantial tyre energy, and even in dry qualifying several drivers needed additional preparation laps simply to bring the front tyres into the right operating window.
Keeping the tyres alive could be even harder
That challenge becomes even more severe in wet conditions. “I would say it would be the perfect storm, because we have cold temperatures and a low-energy circuit. If it rains here, it will be complicated, because forecasts are suggesting air temperatures of around 11 or 12 degrees. And if it rains, the track will likely be at roughly the same temperature,” explained Pirelli’s Simone Berra.
As Pirelli has highlighted, these wet-weather tyres were not originally designed to work efficiently at such low temperatures. That makes the initial warm-up phase particularly difficult, but the bigger issue is not just reaching the operating window—it is staying there. Like slick tyres, wet compounds have a precise working range, and achieving stable performance generally requires several laps of consistent running.
On a low-energy circuit like Montreal, with its long straights and slow corners, the risk is that the tyres begin losing temperature almost immediately after reaching their optimum range. Once that happens, recovering performance becomes extremely difficult, leading to a rapid drop in grip. Pushing the intermediate tyres too aggressively could also trigger graining, creating an even worse situation.
According to Pirelli, this is not something that can be solved quickly. Genuine wet-weather testing opportunities are limited, while engineers must design tyres capable of performing across a broad range of track characteristics, from low-energy circuits like Canada to ultra-fast venues that heavily stress the rubber.
“We could increase tyre blanket temperatures to 140 degrees, but if the tyre loses temperature afterwards, you still end up back at 50 degrees. You only gain a short-lived advantage for the first, second or third lap.”
For that reason, the full wet tyre could actually prove easier to manage than the intermediate if conditions become severe enough. That trend had already been hinted at last season with Haas in wet conditions, particularly in the opening laps. Not only does the full wet operate in a lower temperature range, but its heavily grooved tread pattern also helps generate heat through tread block movement.
If Montreal becomes genuinely soaked, teams may find that keeping the full wets alive is actually easier than trying to maintain the intermediates in their ideal window. A first wet-weather test for the 2026 Formula 1 cars was always expected to be difficult, but the unique combination of Canada’s layout, cold weather and tyre sensitivity may have created the perfect storm.
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