Abu Dhabi is continuing to sell Formula 1 tickets while Imola is reportedly keeping hotel rooms available for the first weekend of December. Two venues are effectively preparing for the same potential 2026 F1 season finale, and unless the calendar changes in an unexpected way, at least one of them could end up spending money on a race it does not host.
From 30 September, Yas Marina is due to put Golden Circle upgrades on sale for its Friday concerts. Around 4,500 kilometres away, some Formula 1 teams are believed to have already booked hotels in Imola for the first weekend of December, while several of the city’s main hotels have stopped accepting additional guests for those dates.
On paper, nothing has changed. The Qatar Grand Prix remains scheduled for 29 November and Abu Dhabi for 6 December on the official 2026 Formula 1 calendar. Stefano Domenicali had indicated mid-September as the target for reaching a decision, but that deadline passed without an announcement, shifting the expected window towards the end of September or the beginning of October.
Whatever happens, 6 December remains the most plausible date for a potential Imola Grand Prix if Formula 1 ultimately changes the season finale.
Abu Dhabi’s long-term F1 future is secure, but 2026 remains uncertain
Meanwhile, the FIA and Formula 1 have already approved the 2027 calendar, which again concludes with Qatar followed by Abu Dhabi. Yas Marina will also host a Sprint for the first time. Abu Dhabi’s longer-term place in Formula 1 is therefore not the issue. The uncertainty concerns the final race of the 2026 season.
That distinction matters because replacing or cancelling a Grand Prix creates a financial problem that extends far beyond the simple question of where the cars race.
Who pays when a Formula 1 race disappears?
The central question is straightforward: if one event gives up its race, who loses money, and how much?
To understand that, it is necessary to look at how the finances of a Formula 1 Grand Prix work. The local organiser, or promoter, pays Formula 1 an annual hosting fee in exchange for staging the event. In return, the promoter retains ticket revenue.
According to Liberty Media’s financial reporting, promoters also retain certain other event-related revenues, which can include concessions, secondary hospitality outside the Formula 1 Paddock Club, local sponsorships and on-site commercial activations. Formula 1 itself retains television rights, global sponsorship revenue and Paddock Club income.
In Abu Dhabi, the promoter is Abu Dhabi Motorsports Management, part of the Ethara group that also manages Yas Marina Circuit. At Imola, the relevant promoter is the Automobile Club d’Italia.
If a race is cancelled, what happens to the hosting fee is less clear. According to a reconstruction by GPblog, a promoter that cancels may remain liable for the fee, while Formula 1 would forgo the payment if the championship itself stops the event.
An Autosport analysis of previous cancellations has offered a different perspective, arguing that most hosting contracts contain force majeure clauses capable of reducing or eliminating payments when a cancellation results from conflict.
The contracts themselves are private, and none of the parties has publicly confirmed the precise terms. That uncertainty alone helps explain why taking the first formal step can be so difficult.
How much is the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix worth to Formula 1?
Formula 1 already has a recent indication of what losing races can cost. In the second quarter of 2026, with four fewer races held than during the equivalent period a year earlier, Formula 1 revenue fell 38 per cent to $764 million. Liberty Media also warned investors that “additional calendar changes may be necessary.”
Exactly how much Abu Dhabi pays in hosting fees is not public, so any figure has to be estimated.
Formula 1 generated $3.87 billion in revenue in 2025. According to Liberty Media, race-promotion revenue accounted for 26.7 per cent of the total, equivalent to roughly $1.03 billion. That averages around $43 million per race, although the calculation also includes Las Vegas ticket sales because that Grand Prix is promoted directly by Formula 1.
Gulf events are generally believed to sit higher than the championship average. Investment bank Guggenheim has estimated that Bahrain and Saudi Arabia together pay approximately $115 million, or more than $57 million each. On that basis, our estimate places the Abu Dhabi hosting fee between $40 million and $55 million.
But losing a Grand Prix costs Formula 1 more than the promoter fee alone.
A cancelled Abu Dhabi GP could remove far more than the hosting fee
For Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Guggenheim estimated lost Formula 1 revenue at between $190 million and $200 million when the events were absent, including not just hosting fees but sponsorship, hospitality, transport and other revenues generated specifically by a race weekend.
That includes commercial activations, event-specific sponsorship programmes and Paddock Club revenue that simply does not exist if the Grand Prix is not held. The overall amount is almost twice the value of the promoter fees alone.
Applying a similar relationship to Abu Dhabi would suggest that the event could be worth approximately $66 million to $96 million directly to Formula 1.
That still does not represent the largest financial impact.
Abu Dhabi’s biggest exposure comes from tourism spending
The most substantial bill would fall on Abu Dhabi itself and the businesses that depend on the Grand Prix week. According to Ethara, the 2024 race week generated 1.25 billion dirhams in visitor spending, alongside 192,000 spectators across four days, with 70 per cent arriving from abroad.
At the dirham’s fixed exchange rate against the US dollar, that visitor spending is worth roughly $340 million.
It would not all represent a genuine net loss if the Grand Prix disappeared, because UAE residents would presumably spend at least some of their money elsewhere in the country. The more relevant figure is therefore international tourism.
Even using the conservative assumption that a foreign visitor spends no more than a resident — despite international travellers also paying for flights and accommodation — the exposure would still amount to at least around $238 million.
The scale continued to grow in 2025. Ethara reported 339,000 total attendances across the race week and associated concerts, with a substantial international audience contributing to Yas Island’s wider tourism economy.
Visa data shows the wider economic impact beyond Abu Dhabi
Visa data provides another indication of the Grand Prix’s economic reach. During the 2024 Formula 1 weekend, spending by international visitors in Abu Dhabi increased by a net 34 per cent compared with the equivalent week of 2023.
The impact was not confined to the capital. Sixty-two per cent of those international visitors also spent money in other emirates, particularly Dubai and Sharjah, meaning an Abu Dhabi Grand Prix creates economic activity across a much wider area.
Hotels demonstrate the same effect. Occupancy during race week reached 93 per cent in both 2022 and 2025, while the average room rate rose from roughly $500 to almost $900 per night, compared with around $200 during an ordinary period.
Abu Dhabi has already committed to its entertainment programme
Some expenditure has already been committed regardless of what eventually happens with the race.
Andrea Bocelli is scheduled to open the week at Etihad Arena on 2 December as part of a new concert series produced by Ethara together with Abu Dhabi’s Department of Culture and Tourism and Miral. Lewis Capaldi, Zara Larsson and Imagine Dragons are also already listed on the programme.
The artists’ contracts are private, so their financial terms are unknown. The announcements, however, have already been made.
Imola knows exactly how expensive a Formula 1 race can be
Those waiting in Imola are already familiar with the financial demands of staging Formula 1, having borne those costs until last season.
According to Automobile Club d’Italia’s 2025 accounts, analysed by Il Resto del Carlino, the May edition at Imola cost €36.8 million. Approximately €26 million went towards the Formula 1 hosting fee, while €10.2 million covered organisational services.
After €16 million in public contributions, the final result was still a loss of almost €3 million.
That means the Formula 1 hosting fee represented around 70 per cent of the event’s expenditure. With roughly 242,000 spectators over the weekend, the total cost worked out at approximately €152 for every attendee, of which around €66 was effectively covered by public bodies.
For comparison, Monza finished the same year with a surplus of €7.2 million despite paying a hosting fee of €17.6 million.
How much would preparing Imola for December cost?
Taking the 2025 organisational expenditure of approximately €10.8 million once the smaller items are included, and adjusting it using Italy’s ISTAT consumer-price index — 103.7 in August 2026 with 2025 set at 100 — our estimate suggests that simply preparing a December Grand Prix would cost around €11.2 million.
The actual amount could easily be higher.
Non-regulated energy prices in August were around 17 per cent above the previous year’s level, while holding an event in December introduces additional requirements such as heating hospitality spaces and temporary structures.
How much Imola ultimately loses if it does not host the race depends heavily on when a cancellation decision arrives.
The 2023 flood shows how quickly Imola costs become unavoidable
Imola already has a useful precedent. In 2023, the Grand Prix was cancelled because of severe flooding just days before the event was due to begin.
The approximately €25 million Formula 1 hosting fee was not paid, but Formula Imola, the company operating the circuit, had already invoiced the ACI for a wide range of organisational work, including hospitality and temporary grandstands.
According to board member Augusto Machirelli, an event originally carrying around €10 million in costs eventually closed at €7.2 million. In other words, more than two-thirds of the organisational spending had effectively been committed with only a week remaining before the Grand Prix.
Using that precedent, our estimates suggest that abandoning preparations by the end of September would cost relatively little beyond office and planning work. A cancellation in October, assuming around half of the relevant contracts had already been signed, could mean €5-6 million in expenditure. Waiting until November could push the cost towards €8 million.
Who would finance an Imola replacement?
Formula 1 has made no official announcement about the financial structure of a potential Imola race.
For several weeks, various reports have described one possible arrangement under which the Middle Eastern promoter would finance the event, retain ticket and sponsorship revenue and reimburse ACI and Formula Imola for the organisational costs.
The concept has been compared with the arrangement used for the Bahrain Grand Prix relocated to Sepang. None of the parties has confirmed that this would be the model used at Imola, and in any case it applies only if the Grand Prix actually takes place there.
If Imola ultimately remains outside the calendar, no one has publicly explained who would cover the preparation expenditure already incurred.
Public funding for Imola is already available
Public funding is already in place. Italy’s Infrastructure Decree allocated €5 million per year from 2026 through 2032 towards the Monza and Imola Grands Prix. The Emilia-Romagna regional authority added another €5 million to its 2026 budget to support the return of the race to the circuit.
If the event does not take place, those funds would probably remain unspent rather than becoming a direct event loss.
Imola hotels are holding rooms for a race that may never arrive
For the local hotel industry, a December Formula 1 race would represent genuinely new demand during an otherwise quiet period.
Gianfranco Montanari, president of tourism-promotion company IF Imola Faenza, has noted that the area normally has little more than occasional trade-fair activity at that time of year.
The potential demand is substantial. A JFC study published by the Municipality of Imola found that the 2022 Grand Prix generated 42,614 tourist overnight stays, with foreign visitors accounting for 67.4 per cent and an average stay of 4.3 nights.
The same study estimated an overall economic benefit of €274 million. Of that total, €172 million represented media advertising value and another €36 million related to brand and supply-chain value. Actual local economic spending through direct, indirect and induced effects amounted to roughly €66 million.
That remains a significant figure for a city of Imola’s size.
The accommodation system itself has also changed during Formula 1’s return to the area. According to the municipality, the number of accommodation businesses in Imola rose from 95 in 2019 to 216 in 2024.
A blocked hotel room is not necessarily a sold hotel room
If the Grand Prix does not happen, rooms reserved for the Formula 1 paddock and travelling workforce risk remaining empty during the low season.
For hoteliers, the problem is not limited to losing one booking. Businesses that rejected other customers in order to hold accommodation for Formula 1 cannot necessarily replace those bookings only a few days before the date.
Recent averages published by Kayak provide an indication of the scale. Over the previous 15 days, an ordinary weekday night in Imola averaged around €78, while a weekend night averaged €493.
That comparison alone does not prove the entire difference is caused by Formula 1 expectations, but it is consistent with reports dating back to July that hotels were already holding rooms for the potential event.
In this context, “sold out” does not necessarily mean sold. It can simply mean reserved and removed from general availability.
Formula 1 fans could face the most painful losses proportionally
In proportional terms, the greatest financial risk may fall on supporters who have already booked travel.
Our estimate for an Italian fan travelling from Milan or Rome to Abu Dhabi for four nights with a grandstand ticket is approximately €4,440 paid in advance. That calculation includes roughly €780 for a return flight based on minimum fares observed for autumn dates, a grandstand ticket costing around €561 and approximately €3,100 for four hotel nights at close to $900 per night.
If the Grand Prix is cancelled, the promoter’s conditions provide for a ticket refund when cancellation takes place before the beginning of the event. However, they exclude responsibility on the part of the organiser, Formula 1 and the FIA for other losses.
If the flight and accommodation are non-refundable, that supporter could therefore lose approximately €3,900.
Package holidays may not necessarily offer complete protection
Buying a combined travel package does not automatically remove the risk.
Etihad sells packages including flights, hotels and Formula 1 tickets, but its terms define hotel bookings and Formula 1 tickets as non-refundable except where mandatory law requires otherwise. That position differs from the cancellation provision contained in the promoter’s own ticket conditions.
A customer who bought through an Italian tour operator may have additional protection under the Italian Tourism Code, which allows cancellation without charges and a full refund when unavoidable and extraordinary circumstances occur at the destination.
Even that protection would not necessarily apply automatically. If the Grand Prix were cancelled because of regional security concerns while Abu Dhabi itself remained open to tourists, the circumstances would need to be assessed individually.
The most expensive scenario would be for somebody who has already booked Abu Dhabi but still wants to attend the championship finale wherever it is held. Such a supporter could lose approximately €3,900 on the Gulf trip and then spend almost another €1,000 on two nights in Imola before even buying a Formula 1 ticket, which is not currently on sale.
Kimi Antonelli could turn an Imola finale into an extraordinary Italian event
There is also a sporting dimension that could dramatically increase the value of an Imola finale for the Italian audience.
Kimi Antonelli currently leads George Russell by 81 points, with 292 points compared with 211 for his Mercedes team-mate. With nine races still remaining at this stage of the season, the Italian could mathematically secure the championship before December.
The title situation can be explored through the F1 Championship Points Calculator, while George Russell’s assessment of his increasingly difficult championship position has also highlighted the size of Kimi Antonelli’s 81-point advantage.
If the championship were already decided before a possible Imola finale, the circuit would lose the chance to host the decisive race. It would not, however, lose the celebration.
A Kimi Antonelli world title would make him the first Italian Formula 1 World Champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953, and an Imola finale would place that celebration around half an hour from his home.
Monza showed the scale of Italy’s interest in Kimi Antonelli
The Italian Grand Prix has already demonstrated how significant the audience could become.
Kimi Antonelli’s victory at Monza attracted an average audience of 4.46 million viewers across Sky and TV8, representing a 39 per cent audience share and 7.25 million unique viewers. It was Formula 1’s strongest Sky audience since 2022.
Meanwhile, Autodromo Nazionale Monza surpassed 400,000 spectators for the first time.
That response followed a single Grand Prix victory rather than the confirmation of a world championship.
For Abu Dhabi, losing the 2026 finale could therefore mean surrendering precisely the edition that might attract extraordinary attention from Italy. For Imola, failing to secure the race after preparing for it would mean paying at least part of the cost of waiting without receiving the event itself.
The final decision carries a bill whichever venue loses out
A decision is expected within the coming weeks, but until it arrives both sides remain exposed in different ways.
Abu Dhabi has tickets, hospitality, concerts, tourism revenue and a major international event ecosystem already in motion. Imola has accommodation being held, organisational planning under way and public funding available for a race that may or may not happen.
The financial imbalance is enormous, but the principle is the same: preparation costs money before a single Formula 1 car reaches the circuit.
If Yas Marina keeps the finale, Imola will have spent time and potentially money preparing for an event that never materialised. If the race moves to Italy, Abu Dhabi and its surrounding economy stand to lose tens or potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in direct and indirect activity.
Whoever announces the decision first will therefore be doing more than confirming the location of the final Grand Prix. They will also be determining who is left with the bill.
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