Canadian GP strategy analysis – McLaren blackout, Ferrari shows strength
The Canadian Grand Prix, the fifth round of the Formula 1 World Championship, was heavily shaped by weather conditions. The race began under highly unstable meteorological circumstances, with intermittent rain and constant light drizzle creating uncertainty for teams and drivers.
Even during the reconnaissance laps, which finished around 30 minutes before the formation lap, several drivers tested the circuit on intermediate tyres before switching back to slicks. From that point onwards, conditions remained broadly unchanged: occasional drops of rain, but never enough to justify a full switch to green-walled intermediate tyres for most of the race.
That is why it came as a surprise when seven drivers opted for the intermediate tyre at the start: Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, Nico Hülkenberg, Gabriel Bortoleto, Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas.
Race strategy recap
Unfortunately for those who made that choice, the decision ultimately proved incorrect for several reasons. As always, we begin with a general strategy recap. The top drivers, including race winner Andrea Kimi Antonelli, completed the Grand Prix using a Soft–Medium strategy, with a pit stop executed during the Virtual Safety Car period triggered by George Russell’s retirement between lap 31 and 32.
Drivers who followed this strategy included Antonelli, Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Ollie Bearman — all of whom finished in the points.
Medium–Soft was used by Liam Lawson, who finished seventh, while Franco Colapinto and Pierre Gasly secured sixth and eighth place respectively using a Medium–Hard strategy.
Isack Hadjar, teammate of Max Verstappen, adopted a three-stop strategy after a mistake while defending against Charles Leclerc (weaving on the straight). He also served a penalty and later effectively turned the final part of his race into a test session. His gap to the Alpine of Colapinto in sixth place was large enough that he could afford this approach.
Carlos Sainz was the only driver starting on intermediate tyres to finish inside the top ten, using an Intermediates–Medium–Medium strategy.
Oscar Piastri completed an Intermediates–Medium–Medium–Soft race (including a 10-second penalty for contact with Alex Albon). The two Audi cars ran Soft–Medium–Soft strategies, Esteban Ocon used Soft–Soft–Medium, Lance Stroll ran Soft–Medium–Soft, and Valtteri Bottas finished on Soft–Medium–Soft–Medium.
There were six retirements: Sergio Perez, Lando Norris, George Russell, Fernando Alonso, Alex Albon and Arvid Lindblad. Track temperature remained below 20°C, while ambient temperature hovered around 15°C.
McLaren blackout: a huge gift for Red Bull and Ferrari
There are two key aspects to analyse from this race. The first concerns the questionable strategic decisions made by McLaren, Audi and Cadillac. The issue is not the choice of starting on intermediate tyres itself — the weather conditions were uncertain, and if heavier rain had arrived, the outcome could have been very different.
These are risk-based decisions that can either pay off or fail completely, and in this case, the criticism is not about taking the risk. The real mistake, however, was the failure to split strategies across the two cars.
The probability of the intermediate strategy working was relatively low, estimated at below 40%. For that reason, at least one car should have started on slick tyres while the other went with intermediates — a move successfully executed by Williams, with Carlos Sainz finishing in the points.
We understand how difficult it is for teams to split strategies and effectively run two different races, but in this situation it was clearly the correct call. In the end, weather conditions heavily punished those who committed both cars to intermediates.
McLaren’s pit wall went into complete “blackout”, and Oscar Piastri also made an early mistake that compromised his race significantly. Lando Norris initially did everything correctly, benefiting from the extra grip of the intermediates to even finish the opening lap in the lead, before later retiring due to a technical issue while running in eighth position.
McLaren completely lost control of their race execution in Montreal, making an error uncharacteristic of a team that has recently won two consecutive world championships. This mistake allowed Ferrari and Red Bull to score heavily and could have a major impact on the championship fight by the end of the season.
Surprising Soft tyre performance, Ferrari find confidence on Medium
Isack Hadjar demonstrated that the top five drivers could have finished in similar positions even if the Soft tyre had shown limitations and required an additional stop. In reality, tyre degradation did not heavily influence race strategy for these drivers. Instead, it simply allowed them to extend the first stint significantly and complete the race without using the Hard C3 compound — a scenario nobody expected before the Grand Prix.
The consistency of the Soft tyre caught everyone by surprise, including Pirelli. Nobody expected such strong durability under these temperatures. The risk of graining was expected to be high, but in reality it remained minimal and far less aggressive than anticipated.
Ferrari struggled the most in managing the Soft compound. In hindsight, the Scuderia might have been better served by a Medium–Hard approach. The opening stint for both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc was extremely difficult, but they showed resilience by sticking to their strategy and reacting to rivals.
Both Leclerc and especially Hamilton came alive on the Medium tyre. The C4 compound allowed the SF-26 to take a significant step forward. Leclerc recovered position after the double pit stop involving Hadjar, while Hamilton managed to overtake Max Verstappen to secure second place in the final laps of the race.
The Monegasque driver experienced some issues in the final stint, but overall Ferrari’s performance in Canada can be seen as a strong confidence boost for the team. It was an impressive display of strength, even if Mercedes still appears out of reach in race pace, and without McLaren’s strategic error it would have been difficult to match them as well.
Special congratulations go to Andrea Kimi Antonelli for his fourth consecutive victory of the season — four wins out of five races for the Italian driver and current championship leader.
Pirelli’s Marrafuschi: “Graining did not affect tyre performance”
Pirelli Motorsport Director Dario Marrafuschi commented after the race: “The decision by four teams, including McLaren, to start on intermediate tyres proved to be the wrong gamble. Low temperatures pushed the remaining teams to opt for the soft compound, which, thanks to its higher grip, allowed the C5 tyre to reach its optimal operating window. The C5 was the joker of this Sunday — a consistent compound that allowed drivers to run until the first neutralisation.”
“On paper, the fastest strategy (Medium–Hard) still proved effective. This is demonstrated by the positions gained by both Alpine drivers, who started on mediums and finished in the points on hard tyres. Despite the low temperatures, graining remained very limited and did not significantly affect tyre performance during the stints,” he concluded.
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