The first practice sessions at Suzuka revealed a McLaren on the rise, showing improved ability to exploit the Mercedes power unit. Nevertheless, the Silver Arrows remain the favorites for the race win, contested between Kimi Antonelli and George Russell, who enter the weekend with different approaches. Ferrari appears to be struggling more, losing time not only on the straights but also in some technical sections where the SF-26 shows instability.
McLaren’s leap forward
Friday in Japan concluded with Oscar Piastri’s MCL40 at the top of the timesheets, while Lando Norris, held back by half an hour of hydraulic issues, was unable to fully demonstrate his potential. Overall, the picture confirms a McLaren that is steadily improving, particularly in energy management—a field where the team had already made progress in China. The world champions are slowly closing the gap in understanding the power unit, recovering ground on Mercedes, who, having developed it themselves, know better than anyone how to optimize battery usage strategy. This gives McLaren confidence for long-term competitiveness, especially with upgrades coming for Miami, the first since the MCL40 debuted.
Despite these gains, Mercedes remain the clear favorites for the race. Their slow start could be partly due to the FIA’s last-minute intervention reducing recoverable energy in qualifying to 8 MJ, disrupting strategies teams had prepared. “I think no one has really tested this in the simulator, as the changes were introduced just a few days ago,” Antonelli commented on Thursday.
Antonelli currently leads the Mercedes duo in terms of lap times, building his performance differently than Russell. The British driver is more aggressive in the first sector, while Kimi excels in the second half of the lap, using residual battery charge out of the final chicane. Mercedes appear to be experimenting with different energy strategies to adapt to the FIA’s intervention. “I think some things weren’t fully optimized, especially on my side with energy management,” Russell confirmed. “There are fairly large differences between teams in terms of deployment and optimization across a lap. I don’t think we did everything correctly. Fixing it should be relatively simple.”
Ferrari struggles on track
The first big news for Ferrari is the absence of the Macarena, the reversed movable rear wing, which the team initially planned to try in Japan. However, this program change alone doesn’t explain the SF-26’s gap, which exceeds seven-tenths—similar to previous qualifying deficits. The Ferrari cars lose most of their time in the second sector, not just due to power and energy limits on the straights. Despite high aerodynamic downforce, the SF-26 feels nervous, unstable, and tail-happy, particularly through the planted corners, with Hamilton citing lack of confidence as a reason for his slower pace. Leclerc also needed multiple corrections, which affected tire temperature and, crucially, battery usage, as repeated accelerator lifts and reapplications increase energy consumption.
Ferrari will aim to recover by improving mechanical and aerodynamic balance, with the goal of challenging McLaren for second-best overall. In long-run simulations, Mercedes lead, with Antonelli slightly faster than Russell, but different energy strategies remain a variable. Ferrari, on the other hand, seems to have an edge over McLaren in race distance, plus the advantage of a strong start.
Race pace simulations
| ANTONELLI | RUSSELL | LECLERC | PIASTRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mediums, 8+ laps | Mediums, 9+ laps | Mediums, 7+ laps | Mediums, 7+ laps |
| 1’34’’5 | 1’34’’7 | 1’35’’0 | 1’34’’9 |
| 1’34’’8 | 1’34’’5 | High | 1’35’’3 |
| 1’34’’6 | 1’35’’5 | 1’35’’6 | 1’35’’5 |
| 1’34’’5 | 1’34’’9 | 1’35’’2 | High |
| 1’35’’3 | 1’35’’5 | 1’35’’3 | 1’36’’2 |
| High | 1’34’’9 | 1’35’’5 | 1’36’’5 |
| 1’34’’2 | 1’35’’2 | 1’36’’4 | 1’36’’5 |
| 1’35’’7 | – | – | 1’35’’4 |
Red Bull mid-pack struggles
Red Bull sits around 10th place despite floor and bodywork updates. Even with fewer slow corners at Suzuka, which typically challenge the RB22, Verstappen still complains of strong understeer, confirming that the car’s issues lie in aerodynamics as well as power unit and weight. However, the Milton Keynes team often shows significant improvement from Friday to Saturday, which is now essential to avoid staying mid-pack.
The battle behind Mercedes, McLaren, and Ferrari also sees Audi in the mix, with Nico Hulkenberg seventh. Williams gives encouraging signs, likely thanks to front suspension adjustments after issues in China and Australia with the car lifting a wheel mid-corner. Haas is also worth watching, having consistently fought for points in the first two races. Overall, at both the front and the back, much will depend on the performance teams can extract overnight by analyzing data to optimize setup and energy management.
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