Heading to Baku: Red Bull struggling, McLaren ready to strike and Ferrari in the mix. Ferrari is gearing up for a favorable track in Azerbaijan, ready to take on McLaren.

The start of a new chapter in the championship begins in Baku. With Monza marking the end of the European leg of the 2024 Formula 1 season, McLaren has emerged as one of the most competitive teams across circuits in Europe. This sets the stage for McLaren MCL38 single-seater to be a top contender again in Azerbaijan, as the championship moves away from spacious European tracks with wide corners to a mix of circuits with varying conditions and climates.

McLaren poised for attack
Baku kicks off this phase, with a circuit not as fast as Monza’s, averaging 215 kilometers per hour per lap compared to Monza’s 260 kilometers per hour. Despite this, Baku’s long straights demand a low-downforce setup, a configuration that no longer poses an issue for McLaren, unlike a year ago. The Woking team now has a range of low-drag wings and beam wing options, updated between Spa and Monza, giving them an edge over Red Bull.

McLaren’s biggest strength remains the wide operating window of the MCL38, crucial on a track where conditions can vary significantly. This includes the asphalt temperature, with the shadows of buildings creating varying temperature and grip levels across the circuit. Additionally, the wind, always present, is channeled unpredictably by the surrounding buildings.

Ferrari optimistic, Red Bull a question mark
Scuderia Ferrari also looks to Baku with optimism. The street circuit features a consistent layout of short, slow, 90-degree corners that highlight traction and mechanical grip, areas where Ferrari feels confident in matching McLaren. The absence of long, high-speed corners typical of European circuits removes a weakness Ferrari struggled with over the summer.

All eyes, however, are on Red Bull following their struggles in Italy. The Monza circuit was a disaster for the reigning champions, and they are unlikely to face another such difficult weekend. That said, the Milton Keynes team is still seeking solutions to the balance issues of the RB20. Baku’s sequence of similarly paced corners might help them find a better balance, but the need for a low-downforce setup won’t allow them to hide the inherent handling challenges of the RB20.

Mercedes also remains in the mix. Tracks that highlight traction and rear tire management are no longer as difficult for them as they were earlier in the year. However, the team in Brackley is still grappling with a car highly sensitive to external conditions, leading to inconsistent performance. The W15, which won in July but struggled after the summer break, could still challenge for victory in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, depending on how well they set up the car.

Rising tire degradation
In Baku, Pirelli will again bring its softest compounds—C3, C4, and C5—which, combined with a smooth, low-grip track surface, will make it challenging to extract peak performance over a single lap. The September date for this race, as opposed to April, also brings higher ambient temperatures, likely increasing tire degradation, which is usually low on this track.

As always, tire management will be a key aspect of the weekend, but braking performance will be just as crucial. The Baku circuit has 11 braking zones, with 7 of them involving decelerations exceeding 4 g. The most intense braking occurs at turns 1 and 3, where drivers experience up to 4.7 g, leading Brembo to rate the circuit as 4 out of 5 in terms of braking severity.

Key variables
The 2024 Formula 1 season has shown how strategic decisions and unpredictable moments can make all the difference in a battle often decided by hundredths of a second. One of the most significant variables in Baku is slipstreaming on the over 2-kilometer-long start-finish straight, where team tactics and qualifying strategies have often come into play.

Starting grid position is particularly important on this circuit, where overtaking isn’t as easy as the long DRS zones suggest. High top speed alone isn’t enough to pass; the car also needs to stay close to the one in front through the tight middle sector. If on-track overtaking proves too difficult, frequent Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car periods offer strategic opportunities, making the Azerbaijan Grand Prix one of the most unpredictable races of the year.