Max Verstappen and Red Bull kick off the Japanese Grand Prix weekend by regaining the momentum they lost in Singapore. The Dutchman shines and convinces, fully exploiting the technical strengths of his Red Bull: efficient downforce, strong front-end grip, and aeromechanical stability provided by the RB19’s low and rigid platform on the smooth tarmac of the magnificent Suzuka circuit. In contrast to the leader in the championship, there’s a lackluster performance from Perez, who seems to be starting from the difficulties seen throughout the middle part of the season. Max doesn’t seem to need much help, but for now, directly behind him, there is a Ferrari that is decidedly better than expected, in a battle with a strong McLaren, with Leclerc and Norris looking capable of challenging for a podium position. In this case, the data helps us understand what happened on the track, so let’s look at the comparisons between the Monegasque and Max Verstappen and between Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris.
Source: Federico Albano for formulapassion.it
Source: Federico Albano for formulapassion.it
Red Bull Dominates in the “Snake”
We immediately notice that the absolute strength of the Red Bull is, of course, the first sector. The section known as the “snake,” with its long series of fast, high-speed curves with rapid changes of direction, is the perfect terrain for the aerodynamic and mechanical setup seen so far. The ability to adopt a low and rigid setup, combined with Red Bull’s suspension geometry, allows Verstappen to always have maximum downforce available, minimizing lateral load transfer phases. The particular design of the floor provides great aerodynamic stability, giving the Dutchman a car with uniform and predictable behavior, making it highly effective. In contrast, the first sector is the weak point of the Ferrari, with the SF23 struggling both in corners and in changes of direction, playing a purely defensive role up to the first intermediate compared to Verstappen and also compared to a McLaren that continues to work better and demonstrate a high level of aerodynamic grip.
Ferrari Recovers Well in the Rest of the Track
Where the SF23 “comes alive” is immediately after the first sector, from turn 9 onwards, where the red car shows a good level of performance for now, significantly better than what was seen in the early part of the season. At the hairpin, Leclerc gains more than a tenth on Verstappen and even 3 tenths on Norris, and in the stretch leading to the famous “Spoon Curve,” we notice a significantly leaner acceleration curve for McLaren and Red Bull compared to that of the Ferrari. For now, it’s difficult to accurately determine whether this is due to greater efficiency (or lower downforce) of the SF23 or a more aggressive engine mapping from the Maranello team. However, the data is interesting in the context of evaluating Red Bull: drag has always been a problem for McLaren but never for the Milton Keynes team. Therefore, it will be important to see in qualifying and the race if this difference persists. In general, it must be said that the maximum speed of 330 km/h for Verstappen seems to confirm that the RB19 has returned to its pre-Singapore performance level, even in terms of efficiency. Continuing the lap, the Ferrari performs very well even at the Spoon Curve, one of the trickiest for the red car, given the need to maintain high-speed downforce. We noticed from the onboard footage that the SF23’s instability tends to re-emerge in the handling of this section but without affecting its effectiveness. Another aspect we noticed when comparing the data of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz is that on this track, the Spaniard continues to approach the corners with a “V” style, while, unlike in Singapore and Zandvoort, the Monegasque here manages to be smoother in handling without constantly battling the car. The impression is that this is the result of the new floor and the application of what has been learned under high-load conditions in recent weeks in Maranello.
In the race pace, Max has a 7-tenths advantage, with significant tire degradation for everyone
In race pace simulations, we saw significant tire degradation for everyone, with lap times rising dramatically as the session progressed.
Source: Federico Albano for formulapassion.it
Source: Federico Albano for formulapassion.it
Source: Federico Albano for formulapassion.it
The data collected tells us that Max Verstappen showed an advantage of about 7 tenths per lap over the competition, a result consistent with both actual lap times and average telemetry. As we have seen him do many times, Max Verstappen gains less time in the more tire-intensive sections (the first sector at Suzuka), as he carefully manages tire usage, and then excels in the rest of the track thanks to significantly better grip from tires that are still in excellent condition. The Ferrari cars, however, hold their own well and seem to keep pace with Norris’ McLaren. Further back, for now, is Mercedes, which did not start the Japanese weekend in the best way. The Brackley team seems to have good potential to extract from the car but doesn’t appear to be able to show it at the moment. We will see if overnight work changes the game for Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, putting them in the fight for the front row and the podium. High tire degradation appears to be somewhat proportional for everyone, with lap time curves running almost parallel to each other. It will be the biggest challenge in terms of race strategy, with the risk that, if track grip isn’t enough to limit tire wear, two pit stops may be mandatory. In conclusion, the impression is that, although Max Verstappen is still expected to dominate, there will be plenty of points of interest in this weekend.
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