Formula 1 is being forced to build its calendar around a variable that, by its very nature, cannot be scheduled: the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East. The uncertainty does not concern only the end of the 2026 season, with Qatar and Abu Dhabi still under scrutiny, but is already affecting preparations for 2027, when Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and pre-season testing are expected to form a crucial part of the opening phase of the championship.
The issue therefore extends far beyond a single Grand Prix. It affects the structure of the entire Formula 1 calendar and is forcing Liberty Media to prepare several scenarios at the same time, while retaining the possibility of making changes relatively close to the events concerned.
F1 contingency plans grow as Middle East uncertainty continues
The problem became concrete earlier this year when the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix could not take place on their original April dates because of the escalation in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia was subsequently dropped from the revised schedule, while Formula 1 and the FIA confirmed that the Bahrain Grand Prix would instead be staged at Malaysia’s Sepang International Circuit from 2-4 October.
The change means the revised 2026 Formula 1 calendar currently contains 23 rounds, with Bahrain effectively relocating to Malaysia rather than disappearing entirely.
Attention has now shifted towards the final Middle Eastern double-header of the season, consisting of Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Formula 1 has chosen not to make an immediate decision, with Stefano Domenicali indicating that the sport expects to assess the situation again around the middle of September before determining whether the two events can proceed.
Imola emerges as Formula 1’s main European backup
If Qatar and Abu Dhabi become impossible to stage, the most concrete alternative currently points towards Italy. Imola has emerged as a leading candidate to bring the 2026 season to a conclusion in Europe.
The Enzo e Dino Ferrari circuit was removed from the regular calendar for 2026, but its existing Formula 1 infrastructure and familiarity to teams make it a logical emergency option. The idea would not represent a nostalgic return for the former Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix venue, but rather a practical logistical solution if Formula 1 is unable to travel to the Gulf.
Stefano Domenicali has already confirmed publicly that alternative plans exist. He has also stated that if the championship cannot finish in the Middle East, Formula 1 intends to conclude the season in Europe.
Imola is particularly attractive because it already meets the requirements needed to host Formula 1 and can be integrated into the calendar without the extensive preparation that a completely new venue would require. Its geographical position would also simplify logistics for the European-based teams compared with other emergency alternatives.
Formula 1 wants flexibility rather than a reduced calendar
The broader principle behind Liberty Media’s approach is to preserve as much of the planned championship structure as possible rather than simply cancelling races whenever circumstances change.
That strategy has already been demonstrated by the unusual solution adopted for Bahrain. Instead of abandoning the event entirely, Formula 1 arranged for the Bahrain Grand Prix to take place at Sepang in Malaysia.
The calendar is therefore increasingly being treated as a flexible system in which venues can potentially be replaced or relocated if geopolitical or logistical circumstances make the original plan impossible.
The same approach is now shaping discussions surrounding Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Both remain scheduled for the end of the season, with Qatar due to follow Las Vegas before the championship’s traditional finale at Yas Marina.
F1 2027 season could begin without Bahrain and Saudi Arabia
The more complicated question concerns the 2027 Formula 1 season. The championship calendar has not yet been officially published, which represents a departure from the timing seen in several recent years. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East is one of the key reasons behind the delay.
Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are not marginal events within Formula 1’s commercial structure, and the region also plays an important logistical role at the beginning of the planned 2027 season.
According to The Race, Formula 1’s preferred plan would involve pre-season testing in Bahrain before opening the championship with consecutive races at Sakhir and Jeddah. The Bahrain Grand Prix is provisionally expected on 14 March, followed by Saudi Arabia on 21 March.
After a one-week break, the championship would then move into a sequence featuring Australia, Japan and China between 4 and 18 April.
China could replace Bahrain as the 2027 F1 season opener
That plan remains dependent on Formula 1 being able to operate safely in the Middle East. If the situation does not improve sufficiently, a second configuration has already been developed.
Under that alternative, the 2027 Formula 1 season would begin with the Chinese Grand Prix at the Shanghai International Circuit, followed by Japan at Suzuka before the championship travels to Melbourne.
Australia cannot simply take over as the season-opening round in 2027 because work on a new pit building at Albert Park is not expected to be completed early enough for Melbourne to move significantly forward from its provisional April slot.
The Australian Grand Prix would therefore remain the third event in either scenario. What changes is what comes before it: Bahrain and Saudi Arabia under the original plan, or China and Japan if Formula 1 cannot begin the season in the Middle East.
This contingency could make Shanghai one of the most important venues in Formula 1’s planning process. The Chinese Grand Prix has already returned to a prominent position within the championship, and China could now become the starting point for an entirely reorganised 2027 season.
F1 2027 calendar being built around multiple scenarios
The next challenge would be deciding where to place Bahrain and Saudi Arabia if they cannot take their intended March slots. Liberty Media would effectively have two choices: retain them during the spring in the hope that conditions improve, or postpone them further and reorganise the second half of the season.
The philosophy remains the same. Formula 1 wants to preserve a full 24-race programme in 2027 even if geopolitical developments make some of the originally planned venues unavailable. Stefano Domenicali has publicly confirmed that several alternative plans are being prepared to achieve that objective.
This is more complex than simply finding an emergency substitute for one race. Formula 1 is effectively preparing several compatible versions of its future calendar that can be activated according to how events develop.
The conflict in the Middle East therefore has the potential to determine much more than whether Bahrain or Saudi Arabia can host Formula 1. It could establish where and when the 2027 World Championship begins and, indirectly, reshape the distribution of races throughout the entire season.
Liberty Media’s priority remains maintaining a 24-race championship in 2027. To achieve that, however, Formula 1 will need to keep several options available. Until the geopolitical situation provides greater certainty, the next championship calendar will inevitably remain provisional.
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