Formula 1 looking to the United States for some unpredictability

Let’s rewind the calendar to Sunday, September 17, 2023, when the Singapore Grand Prix took place. The deviating race, the Grand Prix that momentarily broke Max Verstappen’s monologue, allowing Ferrari, with Carlos Sainz, to secure the only victory in the 2023 F1 season for a car other than the RB19.

We enjoyed watching that event. Not because of the pleasure of seeing the best in class fail, but simply because the outcome of the race was uncertain until the last moment. Ferrari cleverly played with the stopwatch to keep McLaren exposed to the open DRS of the two Mercedes, which, with a different strategy, approached from behind like furious storms. Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton attempted to chase George Russell, the latter making a fatal mistake that put him out of the game at the last moment. In short, that four-car train made us jump out of our seats and entertained us quite a bit.

While up front, in their own way, four drivers made history in the championship, Max struggled further back, hindered by a car out of balance. The mistakes of the Anglo-Austrian team, for once, allowed us to catch a glimpse of the Formula One that Liberty Media envisions and for which the FIA has rewritten the rules by introducing wing cars that were supposed to produce a more competitive category. Also, with the support of the ATR mechanism and the financial pillar represented by the budget cap. The exhilaration lasted for one race, then Verstappen took the reins again and won them all until the end of the year, bringing predictability back to be a major player.

F1: Performance Convergence to Achieve Liberty Media’s Vision
If 2023 had been played without Red Bull, we would probably have witnessed one of the most balanced championships ever, with four teams in contention for victory (Aston Martin, McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes) and eight drivers taking turns standing on the top step of the podium. A vivid dream for Englewood executives who hope that the dreamlike desire takes shape and substance as early as next year, thanks to the long-awaited performance convergence, a concept much mentioned but, for now, undefined in its details.

But it’s not only Liberty Media that believes that even before 2026, the year of another reshuffling of the deck, the world championship could finally become the home of unpredictability. For this to happen, it is necessary for the pursuers to present themselves in 2024 with cars capable of keeping up with Red Bull, whose technical advantage is perhaps greater than shown in 2023, where they could play with the stopwatch due to the manifest inability of rivals to tickle Adrian Newey’s creations.

Liberty Media, although not publicly alluding to it, imagines creating an F1 in IndyCar style: less technical challenge thanks to a higher level of standardization and drivers decidedly more predominant than the machine in determining on-track values. A typically American racing vision that struggles to gain traction in a sport that tries not to lose its European soul.

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Another American figure believes that Formula 1 can become the home of ultra-competitiveness, namely Zak Brown, CEO of McLaren and a staunch supporter of the budget cap, which he intended to be even stricter than what was finally decided after a long political struggle that saw Ferrari pushing for a much higher ceiling.

“If you look at one of the timing sheets at the end of a qualifying session held this year, you realize that even the teams finishing in ninth and tenth place in the constructors’ standings were often able to reach Q3. Most likely, we will always see the same drivers fighting for the championship, but I believe that F1 will be much more exciting in 2024.” This is the thought expressed by Brown to Soymotor.

“I think the situation will be much more like IndyCar, where there are different drivers capable of winning races. With the alternation of drivers on the podiums, I believe we would have experienced a very different championship if Max had made mistakes. I think we could see up to eight drivers vying for victories during race weekends,” explained the McLaren chief, whom many see as the real adversary of Red Bull in 2024.

Of course, one should not count the chickens before they hatch. Everything will depend on how much margin Adrian Newey still has in his pocket. If the RB20 is as unbeatable as the model that preceded it, performance convergence and the idea that technical values can be leveled can be kissed goodbye. Also, because, after another hypothetical year dominated by a single entity, it is unlikely that in 2025 teams will strive to make up ground when the following year there is a new regulatory framework to navigate.

“Everything will depend on Verstappen and Red Bull,” Brown warned. “Obviously, if they continue to perform at the level of 2023, it will be challenging for everyone. However, I believe that performances will converge, and that moment is not so far away.” Hope or technical parables that must be fulfilled? We will understand this only during the season without issuing definitive judgments after the first races.

It was McLaren itself that demonstrated that it is possible to produce almost miraculous recoveries in the course of the race. This capacity for reaction is not only clung to by Woking but by the entire Formula 1. The game for 2024—and for the years to come—is not played only on the track but above all in the factories where technical staff challenge each other from a distance, finally understanding that the philosophy defined by Red Bull is the one to follow.

That’s why some believe that Milton Keynes has less room for development than a lagging competition that, thinking they have understood the tricks of the trade, believes they can bridge the gap. Unless that genius Adrian Newey has other surprises hidden away in a 2023 where it wasn’t necessary to administer many developments to an overpowering single-seater.