It’s nothing new, but it’s always striking to see how certain aspects of Formula 1 go at different speeds. While teams and drivers still don’t know what the format of the weekend in Baku in less than two weeks will be, there are insiders who are already thinking about 2026.
It’s not just the staff dedicated to the design of the new power units, but also the team principals and managers who carefully evaluate a driver market projected towards a future that is much closer than it seems at first glance.
The geography of top teams is evolving. After many years in which the desired club of top teams was made up of Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari, the circle looks set to widen with the entry of Aston Martin and Audi.
Beyond the results they will score on the track, the ambitions and above all the investments justify the status of these teams, there are two aspects that define the profile of a programme. The top teams move very early when it comes to the driver market, and today this aspect is even more justified if we consider the greater number of top teams ready to compete for the best drivers.
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Looking ahead, it is legitimate to assume that in 2026 both Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton will have said goodbye to Formula 1, and this narrows the circle even further. With the current status and relationships, Red Bull will be able to count on Max Verstappen, Mercedes on George Russell, while at Ferrari, negotiations for the renewal of Charles Leclerc will soon begin, as the Monegasque driver’s current contract with the Scuderia expires at the end of 2024.
For Maranello, the extension of the contract with Charles Leclerc is a vital step to maintain one of its fixed points for the future, since the aspect that emerges very clearly is that the number of drivers who qualify today as ‘top-drivers’ is less as compared to the seats of the top teams, with the consequent risk that someone will remain without the best at their disposal.
In the current scenario, in addition to the names already mentioned, there are only five other drivers who have won at least one Grand Prix: Sergio Perez, Carlos Sainz, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly and Valtteri Bottas, but in the case of the Finn, the value is decreasing due to his performance unsatisfactory highlighted in this first part of the season. In the case of Sergio Perez and Carlos Sainz, however, the internal confrontation with their respective teammates weighs heavily, a balance that proposes them as good drivers but in fact as a second choice compared to the ‘top’.
On the driver front, a team that has done some excellent work for the future is McLaren. 2023 will be important to understand if the future of the team can be Oscar Piastri and, if the answer is confirmed in the affirmative, Zak Brawn will have the opportunity to capitalize on the “card” of Lando Norris, linked to the team until the end of 2025 and highly rated on the top-team market.
“Another possibility must also be considered – confided a team principal – or that a top team tries to take two top drivers, not only for the added value that is guaranteed, but also to weaken the competition”.
In this scenario, there are those who hope for the ‘wild card’, for the youngster from the academy who can go and solve the problem with a surprise hit. In recent years, a very active junior program has been that of the Alpine, but with the paradox of not being able to plan in advance the availability of a Formula 1 steering wheel to its youngsters, as happened with Piastri.
Red Bull in recent seasons has had to draw from outside its academy for wrong choices, as confirmed by the signing of Sergio Perez and Nyck De Vries, but Max Verstappen is a certainty that guarantees them serenity even in the long term. Mercedes has bet a lot on Kimi Antonelli. If the Italian continues his career in the junior series with the same pace seen so far, in two seasons he will find a highway ahead of him towards his debut in Formula 1.
The Ferrari Academy has at least two candidates in its ranks who are missing the final steps to put together everything needed to aim high, but they are crucial steps that must be taken in the best possible way. The hunt for drivers could work in favor of the generation that will face Formula 1 between 2024 and 2025, but talented youngsters and absolute quality will be needed. Never like right now have there been so many great opportunities, but teams seek excellence rather than just good drivers.
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