Formula 1 heading towards a two-year period of "cops and robbers"

Formula 1 is split into two markedly unbalanced blocks. One weighs heavily, comprising nine teams striving to close in on the top after navigating blind paths for two years in an attempt to outdo Red Bull. The other, much slimmer, belongs to the Milton Keynes group, whose only concern is to try to maintain the gap for two more years of dominance.

Why only two seasons and not envisage a longer cycle? Is Red Bull settling? Not at all! In 2026, Formula One will undergo such a significant technical reshuffling that it’s impossible, today, to imagine the world champions automatically being the reference in a context where the aerodynamic sphere is still unwritten and undefined.

The next two seasons, therefore, will be based on this kind of cops and robbers game, with Red Bull in the lead, escaping with a substantial advantage, and others chasing individually because it’s impossible to form a cartel to regain ground, as if the sport were a classic cycling spring race.

F1 is an individualistic sport, and this characteristic, combined with the regulatory stability that lawmakers wanted to impose, risks reinforcing the advantageous position that Max Verstappen and his associates have built bit by bit, with patience, dedication, and ideas that have worked by navigating the “river of constant change” (freely quoting from Firth of Fifth, an extraordinary piece by Genesis) that is Formula 1.

F1, Red Bull lowers expectations but doesn’t downsize its leadership role
Winning is difficult, repeating it is even more so, especially coming from a record-breaking year. In Milton Keynes, everyone knows that winning all but one is an impossible goal (but not unrealistic). Therefore, the team’s protagonists are willing to downplay the significance of potential victories but do not question the fact that the RB20 could be the car to beat, even without a margin as annoyingly wide as the one the 2023 model opened on rival cars.

“Realistically, of course, you can’t do much better than what we’ve achieved,” Max Verstappen explained at the FIA gala. “I don’t think it’s always about trying to win 20 races. The issue is trying to improve oneself and one’s car. If next year we’ve improved the car and can fight for the championship again but only win 10 races, that’s fine too.

“I think the competition around us has been quite fluctuating. One weekend there was one team, and another weekend there was another. So, I expect that next year, with these regulations, many lessons will be learned, and the competition will be closer.” The three-time champion essentially summarizes the concept of technical-performance convergence, the element that Liberty Media aims (hopes would be correct to say) to avoid having two more monologue championships in Austrian-Dutch style.

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However, we must be realistic and admit that the risk of monotonous seasons may materialize. Regulatory stability could, therefore, play in favor of Red Bull. An idea that Christian Horner, in the classic game of diverting attention from his team, normally overexposed after a screaming championship like 2023, tries to push away.

“I am convinced that the grid will converge,” said the manager from Lemington Spa to Motorsport. “It has already been seen in the second half of this year, and I believe that next season we won’t win the same percentage of races as we did in 2023. I have fairly clear ideas about it. The one just concluded was an exceptional year.”

Even a car and a team that have approached perfection can be subject to improvements. At the core is the determination to continue evolving and pushing the entire team forward, explained Horner. Pierre Wache, technical director of the partnership, explained how important it is to be perfect in every aspect to excel in comparison to true automotive giants.

“At our level, perfection, which is never reached, is not important, but attention to detail is. At Red Bull, we have practically all the resources, so there are no excuses if we lose. At least as far as I’m concerned. I’m a perfectionist. Engineers are strict; that’s how we make a difference. In our profession, a car that is slower by 1% is an ugly race car, which is bizarre when you think about it.” This is the programmatic manifesto of Pierre Waché and the team, serving as a warning to rivals.

It’s precisely from the search for these seemingly small details that Max Verstappen’s position fits, which, according to Horner, is one of the secrets of the success of this new Red Bull cycle that revives the glories of the 2010-2013 quadrennium, the reign of Sebastian Vettel. “Max is a special talent; I believe he is currently the best driver in Formula 1. What he has achieved already places him among the greatest. We have had the opportunity to see him grow year after year; we saw that all the ingredients were there, but the way he matured was exceptional, as a driver and as a man.”

Will these ingredients be enough for Red Bull to maintain the gap? There is no answer, but the issue revolves around how much margin Adrian Newey will have in his pocket and how much comeback capacity rival teams can still deploy. These topics will be the focus of the long wait leading up to the pre-season tests, which will once again be held in Bahrain from February 21 to 24.