Ferrari’s Austrian Grand Prix qualifying ended in dramatic fashion. The closing moments of the session unfolded like a classic thriller, with track conditions improving significantly during the final minutes. Almost every driver on their last flying lap was setting sector times that had seemed unattainable only moments earlier.
Among them were the two Ferrari drivers, who had briefly locked out the front row before George Russell snatched pole position with the final lap of the session.
Before analysing the performance itself, it is important to clarify the controversial incident involving the British driver. What happened was undoubtedly a serious situation and, in our opinion, there is a clear responsibility. However, that responsibility lies with Race Control rather than with the driver.
All of the available data confirms that when George Russell reached Turn 9, only a single yellow flag was being displayed. Under the regulations, a single yellow requires the driver to lift off the throttle and lose a measurable amount of time within the affected mini-sector.
The telemetry clearly shows that George Russell lifted approximately 100 metres earlier than Charles Leclerc and also earlier than he had done on his previous lap, sacrificing around one and a half tenths of a second in the process.
After passing the green flag panel, he returned to full throttle and crossed the finish line, fully complying with the regulations.
The real mistake, in our view, occurred beforehand. Race Control failed to immediately display either double yellow flags or, even more appropriately, a red flag for an accident whose severity was already evident the moment Max Verstappen lost the rear of his Red Bull through Turn 9 during the live broadcast.
According to the data, there was a lengthy and unnecessary 22-second delay between the first single yellow flag and the subsequent double yellow flag. George Russell happened to pass through that exact section during this interval.
Given those circumstances, it was correct not to penalise George Russell. At the same time, however, it is equally clear that Race Control made a significant error by failing to immediately display either double yellow flags or a red flag, particularly considering that the Medical Car had already been deployed from the pit lane.
Ferrari finds the right balance
Looking purely at performance, qualifying confirmed Ferrari’s clear step forward in competitiveness. Most importantly, the SF-26 returned to being among the strongest cars through many of the circuit’s corners.
This also marks the second consecutive race weekend with the latest upgrade package in which Ferrari has found a significant improvement in Q3, making a substantial leap in its ability to extract maximum performance from the soft tyre exactly when absolute peak grip is required.
The SF-26 certainly carries plenty of aerodynamic load, although this naturally comes with a noticeable increase in drag. Even so, the overall balance proved to be excellent.
It was no coincidence that Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton remained closely matched throughout the entire session. In the closing stages, Charles Leclerc once again produced one of his trademark final qualifying laps, edging ahead of his teammate by only a few thousandths of a second.
Lewis Hamilton, meanwhile, confirmed his excellent current form with another highly competitive qualifying performance. He finished only fractions behind Charles Leclerc, who had to extract absolutely everything from the Ferrari on his final attempt to remain ahead.
The SF-26 therefore showed a considerable increase in grip compared to Friday, while the power unit also delivered a clear improvement over the free practice sessions. Although this level is sufficient to compete with several rivals—McLaren above all—it is still not enough to match Mercedes and, to some extent, Red Bull.
Q3 engine mapping, the smaller turbo and altitude
Once Q3 began, on a circuit that proved to be even more engine-sensitive than expected, the data revealed a significant step forward for both Mercedes and Red Bull in terms of top speed and overall power delivery.
The advantage was evident on the uphill run towards Turn 3, along the downhill acceleration into Turn 4 and on the rapid blast towards Turn 9 in the final sector.
It is therefore no surprise that the highest top speeds of the session belonged to Max Verstappen and Andrea Kimi Antonelli, while the Ferraris—and, somewhat unexpectedly, the McLarens—were near the bottom of the speed charts, ahead of only the Aston Martins.
The impression is that several factors combined to create this situation: the high altitude of the Red Bull Ring, Ferrari’s relatively small turbocharger, and McLaren’s use of the Mercedes power unit with shorter gearbox ratios, all of which affected their respective straight-line performance.
McLaren still managed to defend itself reasonably well through the medium-to-high speed range, but for Ferrari the final phase of qualifying turned into a painful experience on the straights. Charles Leclerc alone lost almost half a second to George Russell purely on the full-throttle sections of the circuit.
Despite the introduction of the first ADUO upgrade step, the differences remain clearly substantial, and on a power-sensitive circuit like Spielberg they become impossible to ignore.
The race is still wide open
However, this pronounced weakness is primarily a qualifying issue, because race pace depends on many additional factors. Kerb riding, traction—which places enormous stress on rear tyre temperatures—and, above all, tyre management all become decisive over a race distance.
Mercedes demonstrated an excellent long-run simulation during practice, while Red Bull also appeared capable of maintaining strong race pace. Ferrari, by contrast, looked less convincing, although it was running with a significantly different setup, particularly from a mechanical standpoint.
For that reason, Ferrari’s true race potential remains something of an unknown heading into Sunday’s Grand Prix, making the race especially intriguing. Andrea Kimi Antonelli, for example, will need to fight his way through the field while avoiding costly mistakes in the context of his championship battle, whereas George Russell will aim to escape at the front.
Ferrari’s long-run pace is still waiting to be fully revealed, and Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton could already challenge George Russell at the start. Behind them, both the McLarens and Max Verstappen will also be looking to move forward.
All of this will unfold on a circuit where overtaking is relatively straightforward and where scorching temperatures are expected to favour a two-stop strategy, opening the door to numerous strategic possibilities.
In short, there are countless variables still in play, setting the stage for what promises to be a fascinating Austrian Grand Prix.
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