Ferrari were once again among the leading protagonists in FP3 and head into qualifying with strong momentum, although a place on the front row is far from guaranteed.
The third free practice session for the United States Grand Prix produced particularly interesting indications ahead of qualifying. For this analysis, the laps completed by Charles Leclerc and Andrea Kimi Antonelli have been considered even though both were deleted for track limits, as they were more representative of the performance potential actually shown by their respective cars.
Ferrari Austin FP3 telemetry shows impressive grip and tyre control
The main story from the session was undoubtedly Ferrari’s performance. The SF-26 confirmed that it has found a particularly effective balance, combining extremely high levels of grip with convincing behaviour across virtually every type of corner. The progress is especially significant after the encouraging signs already seen in Ferrari’s Austin FP2 performance.
Charles Leclerc was even the only driver able to take Turns 4 and 5 completely flat, a significant indication of both his confidence in the front end and the overall stability of the car. The Monegasque gave away time to his rivals almost exclusively during the acceleration phases, while the comparison through the corners effectively showed him as the benchmark across the circuit.
There was also a highly encouraging signal from Lewis Hamilton, who set the fastest official time of the session and appears finally to have found the right balance after the difficulties he experienced on Friday with the new package. Those struggles had been particularly evident during FP2, when Lewis Hamilton questioned his six-tenth deficit to Charles Leclerc over team radio. The overnight work therefore appears to have delivered the hoped-for results, allowing both Ferrari drivers to make better use of the potential offered by the upgrades.
Ferrari reduces its straight-line deficit after Friday struggles
The improvement is also evident on the power-unit side. Compared with Friday, the deficit on the straights has been significantly reduced, with the data suggesting that Ferrari may now be using the updated ADUO 2 Power Unit specification after probably running the older unit the previous day. Ferrari’s substantial straight-line losses had been one of the clearest concerns in the earlier Austin FP1 telemetry analysis.
An harvesting phase remains visible between Turns 10 and 11, allowing Ferrari to recover energy that can then be deployed along the long back straight. The loss relative to its rivals in that section has consequently fallen to just one tenth of a second.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of Ferrari’s performance, however, emerges during the closing part of the lap. The SF-26 appears to have so much grip and such an effective balance that it reaches the horseshoe section with its tyres still inside the correct temperature window, while its rivals begin to encounter increasing difficulties.
The slow, prolonged corners in the final part of the circuit therefore become a particularly clear strength for Charles Leclerc. Ferrari’s latest aerodynamic developments, involving several interconnected areas of the car, are examined in more detail in the SF-26 Austin upgrade analysis.
At this point, the possibility of fighting for pole position looks entirely realistic for both Ferrari drivers. The major unknown naturally remains the Power Unit mappings, as Ferrari’s rivals could still have additional performance available to exploit, particularly in Q2 and Q3. Nevertheless, the SF-26’s performance through the corners is a signal that cannot be ignored.
Mercedes: Kimi Antonelli competitive but rear tyres suffer late in the lap
Mercedes also confirmed a very high level of potential, with Andrea Kimi Antonelli producing a convincing performance overall. The W17 is able to remain highly competitive for much of the lap, essentially through to Turn 12, but the most significant difficulties emerge during the final part of the circuit.
The main issue appears to be rear-tyre temperature management. The horseshoe corners in the third sector place considerable demands on the tyres, and on the Mercedes they tend to overheat, progressively making the car more nervous.
This creates a vicious circle: oversteer increases rear sliding, which in turn generates additional temperature and further reduces the stability of the car. The consequences become particularly evident through the subsequent triple right-hand sequence, where the driver struggles to maintain the required precision.
Mercedes could still have all the necessary potential to fight for first place on the grid, but its challenge will be to protect the rear axle more effectively during the opening part of the lap so that it can reach the final sector without paying an excessive price on the stopwatch.
Red Bull: Max Verstappen does not dominate but remains a major threat
Max Verstappen’s situation, meanwhile, is fairly similar to what was observed on Friday. Red Bull’s overnight work does not appear to have produced a particularly large performance step, with the car continuing to look less impressive through the opening snake section. Its Power Unit also appeared to be run considerably more conservatively than on Friday, potentially leaving more to be extracted in qualifying.
However, no particularly clear or specific technical weakness emerges from the behaviour of the car. Red Bull remains demanding to drive but continues to offer a convincing overall compromise without any major obvious weakness, leaving Max Verstappen on paper as one of the main favourites for qualifying.
The difference compared with expectations before the weekend is that Ferrari now appears to have the tools required to put Red Bull under serious pressure. Much will depend on electrical-energy management and how much each power-unit manufacturer is able to exploit during the decisive stages of qualifying.
It should not be taken for granted that Red Bull will simply be able to increase its power level and create the kind of advantage seen at recent races. The Power Unit is certainly very powerful and the car uses a low-drag aerodynamic configuration, but at a circuit such as Austin, battery-recharging efficiency is also extremely important.
From this perspective, Mercedes, for example, appears to have an advantage that could become decisive in determining how electrical energy is distributed around the lap.
Ferrari has a genuine chance in an open Austin qualifying fight
The evidence collected across the three free practice sessions therefore points towards a far more open situation than might have been expected before the weekend. Power Unit and energy management will again be the major variables, especially when the teams switch to their more aggressive mappings in Q2 and Q3.
For readers looking to examine how speed, braking, throttle application and lap-time differences develop around a qualifying lap, the ScuderiaFans F1 Qualifying Telemetry & Corner Comparison provides a more detailed corner-by-corner view of qualifying performance.
If the hierarchy observed through the corners is confirmed, however, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton have more than enough reason to target the front row and, potentially, pole position itself. Everything points towards an extremely open qualifying session at the Circuit of the Americas — and one that promises to be unmissable.
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