Ferrari remains firmly in contention for the 2026 FIA World Endurance Championship drivers’ title, but its path back into the manufacturers’ battle has become considerably more difficult. Changes to the final part of the WEC calendar have not only replaced two Middle Eastern rounds with Barcelona and Monza; they have also reduced the number of championship points still available.
With Imola, Spa, the 24 Hours of Le Mans and São Paulo already completed, four races remain: Lone Star Le Mans at Austin, Fuji, Barcelona and Monza. All four will run to the standard six-hour format, meaning Ferrari has fewer opportunities to make large points gains than it would have had under the original calendar. The final phase of the 2026 WEC season will therefore place even greater importance on consistency and clean execution.
Ferrari has fewer points available to complete its WEC comeback
The cancellation of the 1812 Km of Qatar and the 8 Hours of Bahrain, replaced by the 6 Hours of Barcelona and the 6 Hours of Monza, has significantly changed the mathematics of the championship. FIA and ACO confirmed the two replacement events, giving Barcelona its first World Endurance Championship appearance while bringing Monza back onto the calendar for the first time since 2023.
WEC awards different championship points depending on the duration of each race. Victory in a six-hour event is worth 25 points, while an eight or ten-hour race – a category that would also have included the 1812 Km of Qatar – awards 38 points to the winner. The 24 Hours of Le Mans, which has already taken place, carries double points. An additional point is available for pole position.
Under the original schedule, Ferrari and the other chasing manufacturers would have faced six-hour races at Austin and Fuji, the 8 Hours of Bahrain and, had the opening Qatar event been successfully moved to a later date, the 1812 Km race as well. A driver crew could therefore theoretically have collected as many as 126 race points across the final four rounds, excluding pole-position bonuses.
With Austin, Fuji, Barcelona and Monza now all taking place over six hours, that maximum falls to 100 race points. Four additional points could be earned by taking pole position at every event.
The difference is also considerable in the Manufacturers’ World Championship. Taking the maximum possible score through first and second place into account, the original schedule would have offered 216 points, compared with 172 under the revised four-race run.
That represents 26 fewer points for an individual crew and as many as 44 fewer points when considering a potential one-two result for a manufacturer. Every poor race from this point onwards will therefore carry more weight because there are fewer high-value opportunities available to recover the lost ground.
Toyota and BMW leave Ferrari facing a 44-point deficit
The Manufacturers’ Championship remains closely contested at the front. Following São Paulo, Toyota leads with 132 points, with BMW only five points behind on 127. Ferrari occupies third place with 88 points, leaving the Italian manufacturer 44 points behind Toyota and 39 behind BMW.
Ferrari is therefore not mathematically eliminated, but the margin for error has become extremely small. The problem is not simply the size of the deficit; it is the strength of the two manufacturers ahead. BMW has won at Spa and Interlagos, while Toyota took victory at Imola and the 24 Hours of Le Mans.
With just five points separating Toyota and BMW, Austin will immediately become an important turning point in their own championship duel. Ferrari, meanwhile, needs to start converting the potential of the 499P into victories rather than relying on podium finishes if it wants to draw both rivals back within reach.
The most recent race demonstrated both the potential and the danger. At Interlagos, Ferrari showed enough pace to compete at the front, with the #51 Ferrari 499P mounting a strong recovery in São Paulo. However, penalties involving the #50 and #83 cars prevented the manufacturer from fully exploiting its opportunity to challenge for victory and collect the heavier points haul it desperately needed.
Ferrari #51 has a much more realistic route to the drivers’ title
The situation in the Drivers’ World Championship is considerably more encouraging for Maranello. The #20 BMW shared by René Rast and Robin Frijns and the #7 Toyota of Mike Conway, Kamui Kobayashi and Nyck de Vries are level at the top on 75 points.
The #51 Ferrari of Alessandro Pier Guidi, Antonio Giovinazzi and James Calado sits fourth with 57 points, only 18 behind the championship leaders. That is the crucial number for Ferrari heading into the second half of the campaign.
Eighteen points across four races is a meaningful deficit, but it is far from insurmountable. Victory in a standard WEC six-hour race earns 25 points, second place is worth 18 and third brings 15. One strong result could therefore alter the picture very quickly.
If the #51 Ferrari were to win while one of its main title rivals finished outside the podium positions, a significant portion of the deficit could disappear in a single weekend. Alessandro Pier Guidi, Antonio Giovinazzi and James Calado therefore do not need to rely on four consecutive retirements for BMW or Toyota. The more realistic requirement is simply to put together a sustained sequence of better results than their direct opponents.
The crew has already demonstrated what the 499P can achieve in endurance racing, and Ferrari’s wider WEC programme now enters a four-race period in which execution could become every bit as important as outright car performance.
Austin offers Ferrari its first opportunity to change the championship momentum
Lone Star Le Mans arrives at an ideal moment to measure Ferrari’s genuine title prospects. The Circuit of the Americas is a venue where the 499P has previously demonstrated that it can be competitive, with its high-speed corners and rapid changes of direction offering characteristics that can suit the Italian Hypercar.
There were also encouraging signs at São Paulo. Interlagos has traditionally proved difficult for Ferrari, yet the 499Ps were able to compete for victory on genuine pace. That performance suggests the car could be more versatile than some previous races had indicated.
The Balance of Performance remains an important unknown, while the set-up possibilities associated with Ferrari’s new aerodynamic homologation introduced at the beginning of the season add another variable. The manufacturer’s 2026 Ferrari 499P aerodynamic changes have provided the technical foundation for the current campaign, but each circuit still presents a different challenge.
Austin is important psychologically as well as mathematically. A victory for the #51 Ferrari would immediately reduce the pressure before Fuji and could completely change the momentum of the Drivers’ Championship.
Fuji could be Ferrari’s toughest remaining test
After Austin comes Fuji, traditionally one of the more difficult weekends for Maranello. Along with Interlagos, the Japanese circuit represents one of the sternest challenges for the 499P, particularly because of its third sector and the concentration of slower corners.
The improvements demonstrated in Brazil suggest Ferrari has found a better compromise in low-speed sections, but Balance of Performance adjustments make firm predictions difficult. At Fuji, the priority will therefore be to run a clean race and maximise every available championship point rather than chasing an unrealistic target.
Toyota will be racing on home soil with the TR010 Hybrid and is the natural favourite, while BMW will aim to exploit the strategic maturity it has demonstrated during the season. Ferrari cannot afford unnecessary penalties, incidents or compromised strategies if it wants to emerge from Japan with the championship still moving in the right direction.
Barcelona creates a new challenge for the entire WEC grid
The 6 Hours of Barcelona is the great unknown among the remaining rounds. It will mark the WEC’s first visit to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, although the track is already familiar to endurance racing through the European Le Mans Series and Michelin Le Mans Cup.
Montmeló’s current configuration uses the original final sector without the former closing chicane. The two fast right-hand corners at the end of the lap contribute to a medium-to-high-speed profile, characteristics on which the Ferrari 499P has historically performed well.
That makes Barcelona an encouraging opportunity on paper, but the absence of previous WEC race data at the circuit means every manufacturer will enter the weekend with additional uncertainty. Preparation, tyre behaviour, Balance of Performance and the speed at which each team finds the correct set-up could all influence the competitive order.
Monza could host a Ferrari title decider
The return of the World Endurance Championship to Monza inevitably brings back memories of the 2023 race, when Ferrari’s challenge was influenced by an unfavourable Balance of Performance. Even so, the Autodromo Nazionale is not fundamentally hostile territory for the 499P.
The Hypercar’s straight-line speed, stability under braking and efficiency through the chicanes all provide reasons for optimism. Monza’s return also carries additional significance because it will now host the final race of the 2026 season rather than simply another round during the campaign.
If Alessandro Pier Guidi, Antonio Giovinazzi and James Calado arrive in Italy still fighting for the Drivers’ Championship, Ferrari will have the opportunity to decide the title on home ground. The circuit also has added significance for the 499P programme, with Maranello continuing to plan the longer-term development of a car it has chosen to continue racing in its current form through 2026.
Can Ferrari really fight for the 2026 WEC world titles?
The answer remains yes, although Ferrari’s prospects are very different in the two championships.
In the Drivers’ Championship, the #51 remains fully involved. With an 18-point deficit and four six-hour races still to run, the gap is small enough for one exceptional weekend to change the trajectory of the title battle. Ferrari is not the favourite and cannot afford another major setback, but Alessandro Pier Guidi, Antonio Giovinazzi and James Calado have a realistic route back to the top.
The Manufacturers’ Championship is significantly more difficult. Ferrari must recover 44 points from Toyota and 39 from BMW during a closing sequence that now offers fewer points than originally expected.
Completing that comeback would require an almost flawless second half of the season: no avoidable errors, disciplined driving, perfect strategic execution and the ability to manage every variable that endurance racing can produce. Ferrari must also capitalise whenever Toyota or BMW encounter trouble rather than allowing those opportunities to slip away.
The #83 Ferrari 499P could become another important weapon. Even if it is not directly positioned to deliver Ferrari’s primary title challenge, strong results from the car could remove valuable points from Toyota and BMW crews and influence the championship equation.
The recent 24 Hours of Le Mans demonstrated just how competitive the Hypercar field has become, with Toyota taking victory while Ferrari continued to extract performance from the 499P. The final four races now demand that potential be converted into a sustained run of results.
Ferrari’s task is therefore clear. The 499P must start winning, the team has to avoid the costly mistakes that have prevented stronger points finishes, and the #51 crew needs to consistently outperform the cars currently ahead in the standings. If that sequence begins at Austin and continues through Fuji and Barcelona, Ferrari could arrive at Monza with at least one world championship still alive. And if everything falls into place, both titles could still be on the table.
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