The first three qualifying sessions of the 2026 Formula 1 season have confirmed the clear superiority of Mercedes when it comes to extracting maximum performance over a single lap. George Russell and the young Italian talent Kimi Antonelli have consistently locked out the front row, making the most of the power unit built in Brixworth, and Saturday’s qualifying session at the Shanghai International Circuit confirmed what had already been seen twenty-four hours earlier during Sprint Qualifying. Kimi Antonelli, now officially the youngest pole-sitter in the entire history of Formula 1 after surpassing the previous record held by Sebastian Vettel, was ruthless in taking advantage of the technical issues that affected George Russell’s car in the first part of Q3. That unexpected problem contributed to compressing the rest of the grid and created a slightly different dynamic in the fight for pole position.
Ferrari did a solid and encouraging job overall and the reduced gap between the two teams is proof of that progress, but compared to the Silver Arrows there is still a significant step missing in order to fight on equal terms for pole position. The layout of the Shanghai circuit, which is considerably more favorable than the one seen in Australia at Albert Park, helped push Ferrari’s direct pursuers further away. This characteristic of the track partly explains the stronger performances delivered by Haas and Cadillac further down the standings, where both teams appeared more competitive than they had been in Melbourne. Even so, the main question remains whether Ferrari has really taken a meaningful step forward compared to the opening round of the season, or whether the improved gap is simply the result of track characteristics that suit the SF-26 more effectively.
In Melbourne the qualifying gap had exceeded eight tenths of a second, partly because Ferrari experienced a significant problem managing the battery and energy deployment from Q2 onwards. Charles Leclerc had explained the situation earlier by saying that consistency pays off more than trying to attempt something entirely new in Q1 or Q2, and that the team already had several ideas linked more to the interpretation of the regulations than to the car itself. According to the Monegasque driver, the team preferred to maintain a stable approach rather than risk introducing aggressive solutions too early in the weekend.
Without those deployment issues, the real single-lap gap between the Mercedes W17 and the Ferrari SF-26 in Australia would likely have been closer to six tenths rather than the eight tenths recorded on the timesheets. In China, however, all teams managed this factor more effectively and avoided the kind of energy-management difficulties seen during the season opener, although there is still room for further improvement in this area.
At Shanghai the greater number of low-speed corners forced teams to search for compromises in terms of setup and balance. Mercedes managed to make a noticeable step forward in corners taken below 180 km/h, demonstrating improved mechanical grip and stability at lower speeds. However, this came with a slight trade-off, as the car appeared to lose some time in the faster sections of the circuit where aerodynamic efficiency becomes more critical.
In the two fastest corners on the track, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc managed to recover more than two tenths compared to Kimi Antonelli’s fastest lap. This confirmed once again that the Ferrari SF-26 remains a car with excellent qualities in medium- and high-speed corners, where the chassis balance and aerodynamic load allow the drivers to carry impressive speed through the apex. However, while these strengths are significant, they are not enough on their own to fully compensate for the deficits seen in other areas of performance.
Aside from the energy deployment issue seen in Australia, the engine deficit on sections above 240 km/h has remained unchanged. The half second lost on the longest straights makes it almost impossible to challenge the two Mercedes drivers for pole position on nearly every circuit on the calendar. Even on a track like Shanghai, which is generally considered more “energy-friendly” because of its layout, the stopwatch did not show any measurable improvement for Ferrari in that specific area. This suggests that Ferrari’s difficulties are not caused by an electrical deficit in the hybrid system.
Between Ferrari and Mercedes there were differences of five to six km/h on almost every straight during qualifying laps, despite Ferrari enjoying a small traction advantage when exiting slow corners thanks to the different dimensions and configuration of the turbocharger. That traction benefit allows Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to gain small amounts of time at corner exit, but those gains are quickly neutralized once the cars reach top speed on the straights.
In race conditions the purely engine-related advantage is not entirely limiting for Ferrari in a direct sense, but even during Saturday morning’s Sprint Race it became clear that Mercedes can manage the tires more effectively as the stint progresses. Tire management is an area where the Mercedes package appears to have a small but consistent advantage, allowing the drivers to maintain a stable pace over longer runs.
Based on the nineteen laps completed during the Sprint, the advantage on track can be estimated at around three tenths of a second when running with roughly one third of a full fuel load. While that margin is not enormous, it is still significant enough to influence strategy and race management over a full Grand Prix distance.
To gain a clearer and more definitive picture of the real gap between the two leading teams over a single lap it will be necessary to wait for further sessions during the upcoming races. The eight-tenth deficit seen in Melbourne was clearly influenced by Ferrari’s technical issues, while today’s smaller gap in Shanghai was also partly the result of the problem on the car of Mercedes’ reference driver, George Russell. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle between those two extremes, which for the moment is enough for Ferrari to remain the second-strongest force even in qualifying.
McLaren’s problems also played a role in shaping the competitive order. The issues experienced by Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri made life particularly difficult for the two drivers in the slower sections of the Shanghai circuit. Those low-speed corners are exactly where the McLaren MCL40 appears to struggle the most, and that is where Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri lost a large portion of their time compared to the best lap of the day.
In race trim the gap between Ferrari and the chasing teams opens up slightly, and this could give Ferrari’s pit wall greater strategic freedom during the Grand Prix. In the Sprint Race the advantage over the McLaren MCL40 was around six tenths per lap, a margin that suggests Ferrari should be able to control the pace relative to the teams behind them.
The key strength remains the Mercedes power unit which, on track, appears to enjoy an advantage estimated at around 15 horsepower from the internal combustion engine compared to Ferrari, according to data shared by a rival team. This difference may not sound enormous in isolation, but in modern Formula 1 even a small horsepower advantage can translate into several tenths over the course of a full lap.
For this reason, work is ongoing in Maranello on the current engine unit to stabilize the compression ratio at a higher level than the current 16.0:1. In simple terms, this technical adjustment would guarantee a step forward in overall power output in order to move closer to Mercedes in terms of peak performance. At the same time, such a solution should also allow for less degradation in engine efficiency as mileage increases over the course of the season.
The electrical system, on the other hand, is already considered the best possible configuration available at the moment. Ferrari engineers believe that the hybrid component of the power unit is already operating at an extremely high level. However, Mercedes remains a master when it comes to deployment strategy and energy distribution during a lap.
Not only customer teams can learn from this approach. Ferrari carefully analyzed the Sprint sessions in Shanghai and was able to replicate certain aspects of the Mercedes deployment strategy, obtaining a slightly improved balance between power delivery and energy recovery in return.
Ferrari: the SF-26 is not a qualifying car, and this becomes evident when searching for the final tenths
The first two rounds of the season have already provided a clearer picture not only of the competitive order on the grid but also of the strengths and weaknesses of several cars. For example, it has become clear that, aside from a power unit that has exceeded expectations on paper, Red Bull has struggled more with the slow corners of the Shanghai circuit.
This limitation damages performance even in the first phase of traction because the RB22 appears to lack the aerodynamic load necessary to generate maximum grip at very low speeds. In addition, it cannot be ruled out that less aggressive engine mappings, introduced after the mechanical problems encountered in Australia, have prevented the team from recovering as much performance on the straights as initially expected.
As a result, the Red Bull RB22 was only the fifth-fastest car in today’s qualifying session, with Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar both finishing behind the impressive Alpine of Pierre Gasly, who delivered one of the standout performances of the session.
In Ferrari’s case, the first official sessions of the year are confirming characteristics that are very similar to those already seen with the SF-25 last season. The SF-26 is a car with strong aerodynamic load and an excellent chassis platform, capable of delivering consistent performance in race conditions. However, it still struggles when it comes to extracting the final few tenths of performance required to fight for pole position in qualifying.
The difficulties encountered between SQ2 and SQ3 in Sprint Qualifying, with the difference in tire compound further amplifying the situation, were highlighted by the excellent improvement from McLaren and Mercedes. Both teams managed to gain around half a second in pure performance during that transition.
A very similar pattern occurred again in today’s qualifying session. The step forward achieved by the McLaren MCL40 and the Mercedes W17 between their best times in the first two phases and their final Q3 laps was about three tenths greater than the improvement seen from the Ferrari SF-26.
A mistake by Charles Leclerc between Turn 11 and Turn 12 prevented the Monegasque driver from getting extremely close to George Russell’s lap time. Without that small error the Ferrari driver might have been able to close the gap even further and place additional pressure on the Mercedes pair.
However, there will be an opportunity to make up for it at the start of the race. The significant performance cushion over the third-strongest team in race pace should allow Ferrari to attack aggressively when the lights go out and to adopt a flexible and potentially aggressive strategy during the race.
This approach could allow the team to put pressure on Kimi Antonelli and George Russell throughout the 56 laps scheduled for tomorrow’s Chinese Grand Prix, especially if tire degradation and race management begin to play a larger role as the race unfolds.
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