Mercedes vs Ferrari: Pirelli’s strategy predictions for the Austrian GP
Pirelli expects the Austrian Grand Prix to be a two-stop race but has not ruled out the possibility of some teams gambling on an aggressive three-stop strategy. With the two Ferraris split by the Mercedes cars of George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli on the starting grid, strategy could play a decisive role at the Red Bull Ring.
The abrasive asphalt at Spielberg, combined with the high temperatures forecast across Styria, is expected to generate significant thermal degradation, creating the conditions for another strategically fascinating Formula 1 race. According to Pirelli Chief Engineer Simone Berra, teams have several viable options available.
Pirelli expects two stops to be the quickest strategy
“We can rule out a one-stop strategy,” Simone Berra said.
The heatwave affecting much of Europe has also reached the Red Bull Ring, where track temperatures have climbed beyond 50°C, placing the tyres under considerable stress: “Degradation is higher than we expected before the event. Before the weekend started, the one-stop strategy looked only three or four seconds slower, so it was a realistic possibility. Even considering the improvements teams have made since Friday, we still believe that a two-stop strategy is the fastest option.”
Simone Berra explained that, on paper, the quickest race plans are either starting on the medium compound before switching to two sets of hard tyres, or following a medium-hard-medium sequence.
“We were surprised to see a split between the teams that saved two sets of hard tyres, mainly the front-running teams, and those that kept two sets of mediums. Max Verstappen actually preserved two sets of hard tyres and two sets of mediums. I think he wanted to keep his options open until he understood how the hard compound would perform during the race. Having two fresh sets of both compounds gives you much greater flexibility because you can choose whichever tyre performs better for the final stint.”
The soft tyre could become a surprise weapon
According to Pirelli, the soft compound should not be overlooked as a race tyre.
“The soft tyre opens up a very interesting scenario. Teams are naturally reluctant to use it because of previous experience, when the C5 compound degraded very quickly. However, we’ve already seen it used successfully here in the past. In our opinion, it’s a genuine race tyre and can comfortably complete reasonably long stints.”
Berra believes the soft tyre offers a clear advantage during the opening laps without suffering dramatically higher degradation: “It provides more grip during the first three or four laps, while its overall thermal degradation is actually quite similar to the medium and hard compounds. It’s a situation very similar to Barcelona, where the additional grip gives you extra performance, while the medium and hard tyres slide more and generate thermal degradation comparable to the soft.”
Lewis Hamilton started on the soft tyres at the Spanish Grand Prix, and Simone Berra believes another driver may attempt the same strategy in Austria.
“I expect someone could try starting on the soft tyre to gain positions at the start. Traffic is a very important factor here. Moving ahead and running in clean air helps reduce tyre degradation. I definitely see the soft as a usable race tyre. Of course, it could be similar to Barcelona, where most teams decided against it and only a few drivers took the gamble during the opening stint.”
Don’t rule out a three-stop strategy
While Austria shares several strategic similarities with Barcelona, Berra highlighted some important differences.
“The degradation levels are comparable to what we saw in Barcelona. The asphalt characteristics are also similar because the surface is very old and extremely rough. That generates a lot of hysteresis, which produces heat inside the tyre and leads to thermal degradation—perhaps even more here than in Spain. In Barcelona, thermal degradation affected both axles, although the front tyres suffered slightly more. Here, however, the rear tyres are the limiting factor because there are more slow-speed traction zones. The front tyres are still stressed through the fast corners, but ultimately it’s managing rear tyre temperatures that allows you to maintain strong race pace.”
Simone Berra also believes a three-stop strategy remains a realistic possibility, provided drivers can avoid heavy traffic.
“In Barcelona, the leading group built enough of a gap to rejoin the circuit in clean air after every stop, and that’s a crucial factor. Even today, we can’t rule out someone attempting three pit stops because, with degradation this high, some teams may choose to be aggressive and try something different.”
Ferrari could use split strategies against Mercedes
The variety of available tyre combinations could encourage teams to adopt different tactical approaches, particularly Ferrari, which has both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton in strong starting positions against Mercedes.
“Ferrari could try different strategies with its two cars to put pressure on Mercedes. That’s what makes this race particularly interesting,” Simone Berra explained.
He also warned that traffic management may prove even more challenging than it was in Barcelona: “Compared to Barcelona, managing traffic here could be even more difficult. It naturally costs you lap time, but it also hurts the tyres because you’re sliding more and generating additional heat. In my opinion, traffic will be an even bigger factor here, despite the long straights and heavy braking zones that create overtaking opportunities,” Berra concluded.
With multiple strategic options available, high tyre degradation expected and Ferrari in a position to attack Mercedes using two different cars, the Austrian Grand Prix could become one of the most tactically intriguing races of the 2026 Formula 1 season.
Leave a Reply