Formula 1 takes a one-week break before resuming in Qatar for the final weeks of a world championship already decided in the constructors’ standings and possibly soon in the drivers’ championship after the Lusail sprint. While the major titles have already found their homes, there are still some minor but nonetheless intriguing battles to be decided. Among these is the fight for third place in the drivers’ championship and the runner-up spot in the constructors’ cup, with Ferrari and Mercedes in the spotlight.
While Hamilton seems to be slightly less at risk from the attacks of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, the Three-Pointed Star’s margin is continuously shrinking against a Prancing Horse that has become more competitive and menacing lately. The recent back-to-back races in Singapore and Japan delivered an epistasis of points for Brackley.
George Russell’s fatal error in Marina Bay and the strategy imposed on him in Suzuka have significantly tightened the competition. With three more fast races to go, the chances of catching up or pulling away have become more concrete than ever.
Ferrari – Mercedes: Saturday car vs. Sunday car
There is a 20-point gap between the two teams, with ten times as many points at stake in the remaining six races, featuring an equal number of fastest laps, three sprints, and the chance to reap points with two drivers. With Aston Martin plummeting and McLaren waking up too late, the battle is more intense than ever.
Mercedes, after a rather uneventful qualifying session, attempted to shake things up during the race by diversifying the strategy between the two drivers. This move didn’t pay off because the primary goal was to have both W14s in front of at least one Ferrari. In the end, Carlos Sainz even “risked” overtaking Hamilton, who had to perform a deep undercut to pass the Spaniard in the pits.
Charles Leclerc found the strategy posited by the Anglo-German rivals intriguing but believes that in the long run, considering the momentum they’ve gained, Ferrari can gain the upper hand in the constructors’ championship battle due to their overall consistency that can’t be overshadowed by aggressive tactics. This was evident in Japan, where it almost caused a collision between the two Mercedes aces.
Charles Leclerc believes the direct rivals are much stronger in races than in qualifying, where they appear a bit more inconsistent. In essence, the Monegasque driver succinctly points out one of the major flaws of the Silver Arrow: their inability to bring the tires into the right temperature window for the push lap. This problem is partially resolved when the distances extend, turning weaknesses into strengths as the car manages thermal degradation well despite a rear end that’s not as stable, as Lewis Hamilton has repeatedly emphasized, requesting a more decisive turn with the 2024 model.
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After the Japanese Grand Prix, in which he finished fourth, Charles Leclerc stated, “It will be a very close battle for the second place in the constructors’ championship because we are a bit more inconsistent in races, while they are a bit more inconsistent in qualifying.” However, even with a more solid long-run performance, the W14 continues to lag in top speed production, which could be problematic in overtaking situations. This is one reason why the balance seems to slightly tip in the red direction.
Charles Leclerc, nonetheless, leaves Suzuka with increased confidence and the feeling that Ferrari has taken another small step forward, thanks in part to the new floor – which proved effective right away – and can lend a hand from now until the end of the year, especially considering that Mercedes has completely halted updates as it’s been focusing on the W15 for quite some time.
Ferrari – Mercedes: McLaren Plays the Equilibrating Role
In this heated competition, there is one team that could serve as the balancing factor: McLaren. In terms of points, neither Ferrari nor Mercedes are threatened by the Woking-based team, which is firmly entrenched in fifth place. To reach third place, McLaren would first need to surpass Aston Martin, a task that seems quite achievable given that the AMR23, deprived of Lance Stroll’s performance from the first day of the championship, is on a downhill trajectory that has permanently kept it off the podium that Fernando Alonso had grown accustomed to in the early part of the season. However, even if the overtaking is realized, getting on the constructors’ podium would be a formidable challenge.
What sets the MCL60 apart is its speed. Currently, the British cars seem more competitive than the SF-23 and the W14. For this reason, they could deduct a considerable number of points from the total tally, which is not extensive to begin with, as Red Bull is claiming the heavier ones.
Therefore, McLaren could shuffle the deck in the battle between Mercedes and Ferrari, as demonstrated in Suzuka, where they finished ahead of both. If this situation becomes a trend – which the latest set of upgrades provided to the car suggests is possible – Maranello and Brackley might proceed with their battle at a snail’s pace without room for slip-ups.
Looking at it cynically, finishing second in the standings wouldn’t be a highly advantageous condition, given that the Aerodynamic Test Regulation mechanism penalizes the better-performing team, granting them fewer development hours. So, losing the competition wouldn’t be a disaster. But there’s more at stake: honor. Already, trailing significantly behind Red Bull is a rather large and indelible blot. Thinking of yielding to another rival would be a difficult blow to swallow. That’s why there is a certainty that neither Ferrari nor Mercedes will let up.
Source: Diego Catalano for FUnoanalisitecnica
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