Ferrari performed better than expected on a circuit that is not particularly favorable to them. Despite winter concerns, the SF-26 currently ranks as the second-strongest car on the grid. For now, neither McLaren nor perhaps even Max Verstappen (if he had started from a more favorable position) could realistically challenge for the podium. However, the two disappointed top teams have sufficient resources to recover quickly in the coming races.
The SF-26’s aerodynamic load is high-quality and quite similar to Mercedes’ W17. With the Reverse Wing or the so-called Macarena wing, George Russell’s car might have had a slightly longer straight-line advantage, but Mercedes could have held back some unexpressed power reserves.
Qualifying highlighted a clear dominance by the Anglo-German team on a basic layout with no heavy braking zones. Frédéric Vasseur noted that this could change in China, where the SF-26 will race in the same specification as in Melbourne. Shanghai, however, features much heavier braking and extended-radius corners, which should benefit cars like the SF26 that rely on battery recharge, sacrificing less on super clipping. The Chinese layout also requires more downforce than Melbourne, which on paper could be advantageous. In terms of energy efficiency, according to AutoRacer simulations, the Asian track ranks as Class B—intermediate and one level less critical than Melbourne. Naturally, no one knows exactly how resources will be optimized to tackle the long opposite straight.
Why didn’t Ferrari adopt a more aggressive strategy with at least one car?
Ferrari couldn’t put enough pressure on Mercedes while the Silver Arrows were managing an energy issue, which they handled after taking the lead. A more aggressive approach—copying and countering the opponent’s pit moves or anticipating the Mercedes under the VSC—could have produced a stronger challenge for the win.
Finally, the SF-26 is a car with significant and stable downforce, thanks to the work of the team led by Andrea Tondi. The new suspension designed by Serra is well set up and delivers predictable tyre degradation, allowing flexible strategy choices. According to an engineer, the result for the victory might not have changed, but Mercedes would have needed to push their cars slightly harder to secure the one-two finish.
Leclerc less satisfied than Hamilton despite the podium
The race pace suggested a solid performance from both Ferrari drivers. Hamilton showed a completely different form compared to the average of the last four years. “I just needed a couple more laps to pass Leclerc,” he said. Leclerc, on a track he historically dislikes, briefly challenged Russell before positions stabilized. Nevertheless, the Monegasque wasn’t fully satisfied: “The pace isn’t top. I paid for a slightly off-window setup during sessions. There are a mountain of things we need to optimize, but at least the gap seemed smaller than on Saturday.”
The Ferrari CEO was also present at the circuit, closely monitoring the season opener. Benedetto Vigna used balanced words after the podium: “I’m happy for the team here and in Maranello, and also for Fred. We now have a lot of data to progress and do better. Obviously, third and fourth places should not satisfy us.” If, as feared today, the Middle Eastern races in April are canceled, initial conclusions on the work done will likely be postponed until the team returns to Europe.
Battery issues dominate car performance
Regarding driving and spectacle, qualifying was underwhelming due to battery limitations. Until last year, with the old DRS, performance differences required long straights and heavy braking. The new cars don’t have enough energy to tackle straights at full speed. Some have suggested modifying layouts or adding artificial chicanes on critical tracks to help energy recovery. Ideally, it would have been more positive to race in Melbourne with the pre-2022 configuration or in the slower third sector of Barcelona.
Ferrari’s Melbourne performance confirms the SF-26 as a high-downforce powerhouse, yet the race also exposed a strategic hesitancy that allowed a vulnerable Mercedes team to escape with a maximum points haul. While technical director Loïc Serra has clearly fixed the tire degradation issues that plagued previous years, the upcoming challenge in Shanghai will test whether Ferrari can translate their superior battery charging logic into an on-track advantage against the raw qualifying power of the Mercedes W17.
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