Ferrari is heading towards an unexpectedly difficult end to the 2026 Formula 1 season, with McLaren continuing to close the gap and threatening the position the Scuderia appeared to have secured earlier in the year. Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s latest victory at Madring, his eighth of the season, may have looked like another familiar chapter in Mercedes’ dominant campaign, but the Spanish Grand Prix also produced several warning signs that Ferrari cannot afford to ignore.
McLaren secured its third pole position of the season in Madrid, with all three having come at circuits particularly well suited to the MCL40. The Woking car has therefore established itself as a genuine benchmark under those conditions. McLaren is still some distance from being able to challenge Mercedes consistently across every type of circuit, but there has been a clear step forward.
McLaren progress is increasing the pressure on Ferrari
Part of that progress has come from the technical department and the updates introduced to the MCL40. Another important step has come from Lando Norris, who, much like Andrea Kimi Antonelli, increasingly appears to have understood how to maximise the opportunities presented by the 2026 season.
The Woking team is now the only squad apart from Mercedes showing a meaningful level of continuity from one race weekend to another. Had Lando Norris gone on to win at Madring — something that appeared likely without the intervention of the Virtual Safety Car — his victories would all have come after performances that put him in a strong position to earn them on merit.
The same assessment is harder to make about Ferrari’s two victories this season. Lewis Hamilton’s success in Spain and Charles Leclerc’s win at Silverstone both came in circumstances that played into the hands of the SF-26. That does not diminish the results themselves, but it highlights the difference between Ferrari’s occasional peaks and the more sustained progression currently being shown by its rivals.
That wider competitive picture can be followed through the Ferrari vs F1 Rivals statistics, which provide additional context for the changing balance between the leading constructors.
Ferrari risks losing its position as Formula 1’s second force
While McLaren can take satisfaction from the progress being made race after race, Ferrari is struggling to maintain the pace of the teams around it. Mercedes remains the reference on faster circuits, while McLaren has established itself as a particularly strong force on slower and more technical layouts. That leaves Ferrari increasingly vulnerable in the middle.
The Prancing Horse therefore risks losing the status of second force that appeared to be firmly within its grasp during the opening part of the championship. Just 52 points now separate Ferrari and McLaren in the Constructors’ standings, meaning the margin is no longer comfortable enough for Maranello to treat the threat from Woking as a distant concern.
The situation is becoming equally significant in the Drivers’ Championship. Lando Norris has moved steadily closer to Lewis Hamilton, with the seven-time world champion’s advantage over his fellow British driver now reduced to only five points. The pressure is therefore building on Ferrari on both fronts at precisely the stage of the season when every missed opportunity becomes increasingly costly.
Ferrari’s championship position had already become more complicated before Madrid, with the team’s recent difficulties raising questions over how much could still be recovered during the remaining rounds. A previous analysis of Lewis Hamilton’s remaining 2026 title chances also illustrated how little margin Ferrari can afford to waste as the season moves towards its conclusion.
Ferrari has not fully unlocked the SF-26
The concern for Ferrari is not simply that McLaren has improved. It is that the Scuderia has struggled to generate a similar upward trend of its own. The Woking team increasingly resembles the McLaren seen during its major resurgence in 2023 and 2024, when development rapidly transformed the competitive picture over the course of the season.
Ferrari’s trajectory has been different. The Maranello team showed several encouraging signs during the opening months of 2026, but the SF-26 has never developed into the consistently competitive package that those early performances appeared to promise. Ferrari has not fully understood the potential available from the car, while there are also weekends when the team appears unable to extract everything from the areas it already understands.
That inconsistency has become one of the defining themes of the SF-26 campaign. Ferrari can still produce strong performances at certain circuits, but translating those strengths across different track characteristics has been far more difficult. The wider development of the car and the technical factors affecting Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc can be followed through the Ferrari technical analysis section.
Mercedes and McLaren keep progressing while Ferrari searches for answers
Too often this season, Frédéric Vasseur has found himself having to explain or justify performances that appeared unexpected even from Ferrari’s own perspective. Difficult weekends inevitably happen over the course of a long Formula 1 season, but the more worrying aspect is the contrast with what is happening elsewhere.
While Maranello continues searching for explanations after its weaker weekends, Mercedes and McLaren are making progress. Those improvements are increasingly translating directly into championship points, and that trend could leave Ferrari facing a far more complicated conclusion to the season than anyone around the team would have expected only a few months ago.
The remaining races on the 2026 Formula 1 calendar will therefore be important for more than simply determining Ferrari’s final position in the current championship. The closing phase of the campaign will reveal whether the Scuderia can finally establish a clearer understanding of the SF-26 and respond to the development rate being demonstrated by its main rivals.
Ferrari’s difficult finale could have consequences beyond 2026
Ferrari, both as a team and for its supporters, is moving towards a season finale that few would have predicted earlier in the year. The consequences could extend beyond the final standings of the 2026 championship. How Ferrari reacts to McLaren’s resurgence and Mercedes’ continued strength may also influence the direction and confidence with which Maranello approaches the next campaign.
McLaren appears to be building momentum in a way that recalls its previous development surges, while Ferrari has yet to make the SF-26 consistently deliver the level of performance it has occasionally shown. The Scuderia now needs answers at a time when its rivals are already converting their own improvements into points.
The hope in Maranello will be that this difficult end to 2026 does not create repercussions for the next championship. But with McLaren closing rapidly, Lewis Hamilton under increasing pressure from Lando Norris and Mercedes still setting the overall benchmark, Ferrari is approaching the decisive part of the season less prepared than it would have wanted to be.
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