The first three rounds of the 2023 Formula 1 championship are behind us and now the teams have three weeks to work in view of the next race, which is scheduled to take place at the Baku City circuit in Azerbaijan at the end of the month. Three races were not enough to decide who can be considered the main challenger of a dominant Red Bull in the long run between Aston Martin, Mercedes and Scuderia Ferrari.
In Bahrain we saw an AMR23 car superior to Mercedes and Ferrari in terms of race pace. At the Jeddah circuit the performances were a bit close with the Brackley team overtaking the Italian side, which dropped to fourth place, while in Australia the SF-23 was the best performing car, followed by Aston Martin and Mercedes, but the result was the opposite of this ranking due to several on-track incidents.
The three teams are very close in terms of performance and it’s often the details that make the difference. In qualifying, the SF-23 car proved to have a better pace than its rivals, while in the race it often suffered from tyre degradation, as well as reliability problems and driver errors. Aston Martin suffers from too much drag, while Mercedes has a W14 with a small operating window and rather variable performance.
The numbers speak for themselves: the Red Bull RB19 has improved all the weak points of the previous car, enhancing its strengths.
In terms of performance, the RB19 is the only clear reference point in this 2023 Formula 1 season. All the data shows that Adrian Newey’s car has no major weaknesses; it is stronger in all types of corners with an average of 164 km/h (-0.89% better than Aston Martin) and 312.9 km/h on the straight (0.52% better than Ferrari). Which means that even if we put together the best qualities of the closest cars, they wouldn’t fare like the RB19 at present, as explained by Formula 1 experts Giuliano Duchessa and Andrea Vergani for formu1a.uno.
What’s more, when using the DRS (drag reduction system) it feels downright surreal, as if it has 10 more HP. The technicians of the reigning champion team have never really fought against tyre wear and thermal degradation – in all track conditions – a clear sign of a perfect car balance which comes from its design. This means that they have never had to compromise in defining the setup unlike Ferrari and Mercedes above all.
Red Bull has produced a superiority already well exploited in terms of points by the drivers. Max Verstappen has the monstrous average of 23 points/race out of 26 available. That’s 5 points/race more than it takes to be in full fight for the title. Checo Perez, despite having had to start from the back row at Albert Park circuit, with 18 points/race is in perfect line with this dream. In the constructors’ standings the staggering average is already 41 race points: for example in 2014 Mercedes had an average of 36 points/race (37 in the first 3 races). In short, the new Red Bull car has maintained all the great advantages of the previous RB18 – the famous familiarity of which Christian Horner spoke during the winter – correcting its weaknesses.
Aston Martin looking for efficiency to improve, Mercedes needs more downforce
On the podium we unexpectedly find Fernando Alonso who – unlike Ferrari – impressed with his consistency. His average is not worthy of a world championship, but 15 points / race show a flattering start to say the least and which could allow him to fight – or resist in the long term – a technical and aggressive return from his direct rivals, which today are called Mercedes and Ferrari.
Aston Martin has gone from rivaling the performance of Alpine and McLaren at the end of 2022, to being the most consistent car after Red Bull by far exceeding expectations. The characteristics of the AMR23 are very clear. If the intent of the technicians was to find the maximum aerodynamic load on the tyres, without worrying too much about resistance, they succeeded. The car has an average gap of 6.2 km/h on the straight but is the closest car to the RB19 in the corners, with a gap of only 1.5 km/h. For this reason, the interventions will focus on improving the efficiency of the AMR23, although the use of the Mercedes gearbox – as explained – limits the efficiency of the diffuser and forces the Silverstone team to use larger rear wings which increase drag.
In Maranello, the preparation towards Baku continues without any break. After Carlos Sainz was in the simulator last week, it will be up to Charles Leclerc to test the various set-up possibilities this week. Some correlation problems have also been resolved thanks to the contribution of the new floor, but Baku and the subsequent races will be important for confirming progress and also testing the validity of the updates being worked on. The Maranello engineers remain confident, even though they have already fallen three months behind schedule, that they can unlock the potential of the SF-23 which during the winter predicted a pace one second better than the F1-75.
The main problem is to introduce updates to give it consistency in long runs. After having finished correcting the error that caused the aerodynamic instability of the SF-23 seen since the Bahrain testing session, the gap should close quickly. It might appear unrealistic, yet in Maranello they are confident they can return the having the second fastest car on track already from Baku. However, as already written, the first real target is the end of May, when it will be evaluated whether the current aerodynamic concept of the SF-23 makes sense to continue developing it or it will be necessary to review the development plans for 2023 and above all for the next season.
