Ferrari heads into the 2026 Singapore Grand Prix with two opportunities to challenge Max Verstappen for victory after narrowly missing out on pole position at Marina Bay. The Red Bull driver secured his first pole at the Singapore circuit, confirming the remarkable transformation of the RB22 under Formula 1’s new regulations. However, with Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton starting second and third, Ferrari can still use the opening lap and race strategy to put pressure on the Dutchman.
Red Bull’s latest qualifying success extends an impressive run of form that has seen the Milton Keynes team lead the field over the past week, recalling its dominance during the ground-effect era. Yet this is not simply a return to its previous strengths. Red Bull’s current competitiveness rests on a fundamentally different technical foundation, while Ferrari has demonstrated that its SF-26 can be a serious threat around Marina Bay. Mercedes is also making progress in extracting performance from its upgrades, although Kimi Antonelli’s fourth place remains below expectations.
Red Bull’s transformation delivers Max Verstappen’s first Singapore pole
The Red Bull RB22 continues to set the benchmark in Singapore, at least in the hands of Max Verstappen, who made the biggest difference in the final sector. Much has already been said about the Milton Keynes team’s progress, particularly in car development, setup optimisation and its understanding of the 2026 Pirelli tyres. The Dutch world champion has now celebrated his first pole position in the Asian city-state, a milestone he acknowledged was no coincidence.
The current generation of Formula 1 cars behaves very differently from the previous ground-effect machinery, with lap time now gained through different phases of a corner. The substantial electrical component of the 2026 power units requires a stable rear end on corner exit, both to manage the explosive delivery of electrical power and to limit overheating of the rear tyres. Traction through slow corners is emerging as one of the RB22’s greatest strengths.
The 2026 tyres also provide less grip than their predecessors, demanding a more aggressive approach to cornering, supported by more predictable aerodynamic behaviour.
Under the previous ground-effect regulations, the priority was to maintain stable ride heights to maximise the performance of the floor. That requirement often conflicted with the need to absorb bumps and surface irregularities at street circuits such as Singapore.
Another significant difference concerns aerodynamic drag. Low straight-line resistance is more valuable than ever in 2026, whereas outright downforce was the dominant consideration at Marina Bay last year.
For Red Bull, therefore, the current resurgence represents a transformation rather than a return to its former identity. The team has successfully reinvented itself, adapting its fundamental car concept, setup philosophy and driving requirements to the demands of the new regulations. That evolution has helped Max Verstappen secure the one pole position that had previously been missing from his collection.
Ferrari’s Singapore GP strategy offers two opportunities to beat Verstappen
Ferrari has every reason to feel frustrated after missing pole position by just over five hundredths of a second. This time, however, the Maranello team has relatively little to criticise about its qualifying execution, particularly its work in preparing the tyres.
Already in Q1 and Q2, Ferrari fitted fresh sets of Soft tyres even when doing so did not appear strictly necessary. The approach suggested a deliberate attempt to understand how best to bring the tyres up to temperature and extract their maximum performance.
Charles Leclerc certainly benefited from that preparation. The Monegasque struggled during the first two qualifying segments, dealing with a braking-system imbalance and insufficient tyre grip, before producing a much stronger performance in Q3. Lewis Hamilton, meanwhile, appeared comfortable from the beginning of the session but made two small driving errors across his two attempts in the final segment.
Ferrari continues to regret the horsepower missing from its power unit, a weakness that becomes particularly noticeable in Q3, when drivers must extract every available kilowatt. The deficit remains an important limitation even when the SF-26 performs well through the corners. The differences in recorded straight-line performance can be explored through the Formula 1 top-speed comparison.
From a chassis perspective, however, the SF-26 performed particularly well in the second sector, the most technically demanding part of the Marina Bay circuit. Ferrari’s setup work deserves recognition, especially considering that the same car has previously struggled to absorb bumps and deliver its power effectively through slow corners.
The progress is particularly significant given the balance between traction and straight-line speed required at Marina Bay. Ferrari has managed to improve the behaviour of the SF-26 in areas that have caused difficulties at other circuits, even if its power-unit disadvantage remains unresolved.
Overtaking is expected to be difficult during the Grand Prix, but Ferrari still has two realistic opportunities to challenge Max Verstappen.
The race start could provide Ferrari’s first opportunity
The first chance will come when the lights go out. Red Bull has not been flawless at race starts this season, creating an opportunity for Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to put immediate pressure on the pole-sitter.
If Ferrari can at least defend second and third positions, it will retain the flexibility to pursue different strategic options later in the race.
A split strategy could put Red Bull under pressure
The second opportunity concerns pit-stop strategy. Ferrari could consider splitting its drivers’ strategies, potentially attempting an undercut with one car to encourage Max Verstappen to make an earlier stop.
That could then allow the other Ferrari driver to exploit clear track and potentially gain an advantage through a different pit-stop sequence. Such an approach would give the Maranello team more than one way to challenge Red Bull, rather than relying exclusively on an on-track overtake.
The effectiveness of this approach would depend on tyre degradation, pit-stop timing and the available gaps in traffic. Ferrari’s options can be examined in the context of its wider Singapore weekend challenges outlined by Fred Vasseur.
Mercedes makes progress with W17 upgrades but problems remain
Kimi Antonelli had already indicated after the Sprint that Mercedes had made significant setup changes in an effort to unlock the potential of the upgrades fitted to the Italian driver’s W17.
The developments have altered the car’s aerodynamic behaviour, requiring corresponding adjustments to the setup to bring it back into its optimal operating window. The underlying problem concerns the balance of the car through different phases of a corner, preventing Mercedes from fully exploiting the additional downforce identified in its data.
Compared with Friday, the Brackley team demonstrated clear progress with the updated car. However, the most convincing evidence was not the internal comparison, which Kimi Antonelli won on this occasion. George Russell had little incentive to prioritise qualifying performance, particularly with his car prepared with the race in mind.
A more meaningful indication came from Kimi Antonelli’s deficit to Max Verstappen. The Mercedes driver finished less than two tenths behind the Red Bull, compared with the almost seven-tenths gap recorded in Friday’s qualifying session.
Nevertheless, several problems remain. The most significant is mid-corner understeer through medium-speed bends, which contributed to another track-limits infringement for Kimi Antonelli.
The Italian is preparing for another race in which patience could prove important, with the objective of capitalising on any opportunities that arise. George Russell, meanwhile, faces the difficult but not impossible task of recovering into the points.
McLaren struggles continue as Austin upgrades become crucial
McLaren’s situation remains largely unchanged, with the Woking team occupying the position of fourth-fastest constructor for the third consecutive race weekend.
Although McLaren did not win in Singapore last year, Marina Bay was nevertheless a circuit that suited the characteristics of its car. The situation is very different in 2026, with the team now forced to fight through a weekend at a venue that appears poorly suited to the MCL40.
Andrea Stella has confirmed that further upgrades are planned for Austin, developments that appear increasingly necessary if McLaren is to respond to Red Bull’s resurgence.
Red Bull has successfully reinvented itself under the new Formula 1 regulations, and Max Verstappen now has an opportunity to secure a second consecutive Grand Prix victory within seven days.
Ferrari, however, has reasons for optimism. The SF-26 has shown strong cornering performance at Marina Bay, and the narrow qualifying deficit demonstrates that Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton are capable of challenging at the front. With both cars immediately behind Max Verstappen, the opening lap and the strategic decisions that follow could determine whether Ferrari can turn its qualifying promise into a Singapore Grand Prix victory.
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