Ferrari could have an important strategic opportunity against Max Verstappen in the Singapore Grand Prix, with low tyre degradation and the extreme difficulty of overtaking at the Marina Bay Street Circuit potentially freezing the running order after the start. However, that does not mean there will be no opportunities to gain positions, and Ferrari could use its two-car advantage to try to take the lead away from the Red Bull driver.
With both SF-26 cars in a position to put pressure on Max Verstappen, Ferrari has more strategic flexibility than its rival. The possibility of using Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton together has already emerged as an important part of Ferrari’s Singapore GP strategy against Max Verstappen. Simone Berra, Pirelli Chief Engineer, has now explained the tyre and pit-stop options available for what is expected to be a highly tactical race.
The strategic picture for the Singapore GP
Simone Berra considers a one-stop strategy almost inevitable unless external variables such as rain, a Safety Car or a Virtual Safety Car intervene.
“We already saw in the Sprint that overtaking is very difficult, even when there is a performance difference. We saw it, for example, at the end of the race, when Charles Leclerc was struggling more with degradation on the Intermediate, but even then the two McLarens were unable to overtake him.”
According to Pirelli, the Soft tyre is the most suitable compound for the race. “From the limited data collected, we can see that the C5 compound, the Soft, works very well. It should work, both because of the circuit layout and because the evening temperatures are not particularly high. We expect many drivers could start on the C5. Degradation is very low, as it is in Baku, so the Soft is capable of completing a sufficiently long stint and then opening up various options during the race. The aim will be to extend the stint for as long as possible and then take advantage of a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car window.”
The importance of compound choice and stint length can also be explored through the F1 Tyre & Stint Analysis, which compares tyre strategies and stint performance across the field.
“The C5 is absolutely the best compound. It gives you more grip and there is a significant difference compared with the Medium and Hard. When it comes to the choice for the second stint, however, there could be a little more variation. The Hard did not work badly during free practice, despite the track being dusty. There was no negative feedback; on the contrary, the balance was good and the performance was not too far away from the softer compounds. The teams, however, could prefer the Medium because of its slightly higher peak grip, with degradation similar to the Hard.”
Ferrari’s strategy options against Max Verstappen
On paper, the most effective strategies are therefore Soft-Medium or Medium-Soft, while Pirelli considers the Medium-Hard combination less favourable because of the lower grip offered by those two compounds. More than the tyre choice itself, however, the Singapore GP could be decided by the timing of the pit stop and the performance on the out-lap.
“In my opinion, the undercut does not allow you to get ahead of the car in front. Because degradation is not particularly high here, the driver defending against the undercut has enough performance to push on the lap when the car behind has entered the pits. The driver who stops also has to go through the entire warm-up phase. There are no high-speed corners where you can properly warm the tyre, so it could take half a lap to bring it fully up to temperature. The difference in pace during the first lap, therefore, might not be enough to overtake the car in front.”
If Ferrari retains second and third positions at the start, however, the undercut could still become an important tactical weapon. Even if the attempt itself does not succeed, Red Bull could be forced to respond by bringing Max Verstappen into the pits, giving the other SF-26 an opportunity to extend its first stint. Pit-stop timing, neutralisations and strategic responses throughout the season can be compared through the Ferrari pit-stop and strategy data.
“Ferrari could force Max Verstappen to stop and then try to extend the stint with the other car. It will certainly be a tactical race. It will be interesting to understand from the very first lap what kind of pace they want to impose, whether the leading cars want to try to pull away or whether they instead want to manage the tyres more and keep the group closer together.”
“That could be a defensive weapon for Red Bull, because it would then force Charles Leclerc or Lewis Hamilton to rejoin in traffic. It will be an interesting and strategic race,” Simone Berra concluded.
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