In the realm of pre-season testing battles, Formula 1 teams and fans understand that determining the potential race winner goes beyond single-lap speed, something that Ferrari knows very well from last season. This is also the reason why the fact that Ferrari’s duo, Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc, topping the overall timing sheets during last week’s test held at the 5.412 km Bahrain International Circuit located in Sakhir, Bahrain, has hardly made a significant impact in discussions.
Carlos Sainz’s leading time of 1.29.921 seconds during the test, achieved on the second day, was approximately seven tenths quicker than the Red Bull benchmark of 1m30.679s set by Sergio Perez on the same afternoon.
However, no one is suggesting that this reflects the true performance picture (even considering a 0.6 seconds time difference in the tire compounds they used).
The consensus in the paddock is that Red Bull is undoubtedly heading into the Formula 1 season-opener next weekend as the team to beat.
What remains uncertain, though, is the extent of its advantage because there is another element involving Carlos Sainz in the Bahrain test that has sparked discussions about the competitive dynamics between his Ferrari team and Red Bull.
As teams analyzed the data, it was a race simulation run by Carlos Sainz on the second evening, conducted under similar but not identical conditions to Sergio Perez on the same program, that raised questions about the potential of the new SF-24. In terms of pure lap time, the timing sheets suggested that Ferrari had the advantage. Over the three race stints, Carlos Sainz proved to be faster than the Red Bull.
Carlos Sainz’s advantage on the C3 averaged just over 0.4 seconds – and extended to over one second on their final stints, both on the C1 hard compound. The magnitude of this advantage suggests that Perez likely ran with a heavier fuel load. With the widely accepted understanding that 10kg of weight equates to around 0.3 seconds of lap time around Bahrain, there is a considerable degree of variability in determining the true significance of their two runs.
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But one thing is clear from the Carlos Sainz race simulation – the high tire degradation that plagued much of Ferrari’s 2023 campaign seems to have been addressed.
Carlos Sainz’s performance was remarkably consistent. Examining his final stint on the C1, in particular, it was a significant departure from last year’s Bahrain Grand Prix, where both he and Leclerc struggled immensely with tire degradation.
His run on the C1 unfolded as follows: 35.5, 35.7, 35.5, 35.6, 35.3, 35.4, 35.5, 35.2, 35.3, 35.1, 35.2, 35.2, 35.1, 35.1, 34.9, 35.3, 35.8, 35.5, 35.6.
For team boss Fred Vasseur, this consistency – and the fact that both drivers sense improvement with the car – is a more significant indicator from the test than any numerical comparisons between Ferrari and Red Bull. Teams are adept at misdirection during testing to avoid revealing their true potential to rivals. Max Verstappen, in particular, conducted several long runs on Friday, each time with a considerable amount of fuel, aiming not to showcase the car’s full potential. He was fast and consistently so – lap times even dropped over the stint as fuel decreased.
Interestingly, he was relatively slow through the speed traps during this, hinting that engine modes may have been turned down as well.
For now, Ferrari is encouraged by the feedback from its drivers and what it observed from Carlos Sainz‘s extended run on Thursday. However, deep uncertainty remains about Red Bull’s intentions in the test regarding their fuel loads. As Fred Vasseur explained regarding whether Red Bull is significantly ahead: If the Austrian team ran with 20 kilos, Ferrari is in good shape, but if they ran with 80kg, the Maranello team is nowhere. For now, only Red Bull knows.
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