Scuderia Ferrari is ready to face the last six races of the 2024 Formula 1 season, a championship in which along the way it has nurtured a goal: to fight for the constructors’ championship. To do this, it has tried to extract the best possible performance from the SF-24 and see what would happen. The problem, however, though it may seem a bit harsh towards the Italian team, is the fact that, to date, the Prancing Horse still lacks a winning mentality that would always allow it to optimize the result, no matter what. We are talking about a major limitation that absolutely needs to be addressed.
McLaren also suffers from this issue, but at least, with a super competitive car on all tracks, a car flexible and consistently performing, and with a very strong driver pairing pushing every race, it has managed to overtake Red Bull in the constructors’ standings. The goal is still far off, however, as many points are still up for grabs, and the gap that Milton Keynes’ team currently has over the papaya-colored cars is not enough to consider it a done deal. It will require consistent performance and awareness of their abilities until the end.
Red Bull thinks it has figured out what isn’t working on its car. For this reason, after months of difficulties largely managed by Max Verstappen alone, the next round of the 2024 Formula 1 championship will bring a substantial aerodynamic package of updates. These updates are aimed at correcting various settings that have been “driving” the technicians, Max Verstappen, Sergio Perez and engineers “crazy.” If things go as they should this time around, the Austrian team’s performance leap should be significant. A step that would allow the team to regain the lead in the constructors’ championship. This is their goal.
Red Bull remains a super-prepared team. An F1 team that has lost key players but still has, as Christian Horner has indicated several times throughout the season, everything it needs to keep winning. It’s precisely for this reason that confidence in their own resources is fundamental, because while proclamations are nice and boost morale, if results don’t come, problems will increase. Helmut Marko has recently emphasized that the correlation between the track and the hypothetical world of simulators and wind tunnels has not provided adequate feedback.
This is quite a serious problem that needed to be resolved. A headache that has led the reigning world champion team down a misleading path. This scenario hasn’t affected only Red Bull. We know well that Mercedes has also suffered from this considerable issue in Formula 1. Not to mention Ferrari, which, although it is currently in clear recovery compared to the recent past, literally threw away the 2024 racing campaign in the three months of “performance gap” on track. A period in which it lost a mountain of points that would be very useful at this moment.
The team from Maranello managed to update the wind tunnel with a modification to the belt on which the car is placed. Recently, senior engineer Jock Clear spoke about the importance of this tool in modern Formula 1. The wind tunnel must be able to reproduce the real-world context as accurately as possible. Unfortunately, however, as the English senior performance engineer himself admitted, no matter how sophisticated this device may be, “copying” the work of the car perfectly to achieve a 100% match between track and tunnel is not possible.
The reason is well-known: it is not possible to reproduce the roughness of the track surface at various speeds with extreme precision. For this reason, the data must still be interpreted as accurately as possible to avoid misleading information. And this brings us to one of the points of this discussion. Ferrari, after the summer break, shifted gears. We have seen this clearly, and without a doubt, the work done by the team has paid off. However, because the wind tunnel update arrived in August, some components, like the floor and the new front wing, were developed from studies carried out without the tunnel update.
On one hand, this news can be seen positively, since, with the recent upgrade, things can only improve in this regard. On the other hand, if we want to look at the glass half empty, we can say that without the belt update, Ferrari has produced some good parts of the car, while others are definitely not as good. This means that the update to the SF-24 floor introduced in the Spanish Grand Prix at the Circuit de Catalunya could have been done better, considering that the latest version of the floor, which now works, was developed with the same tools, before the belt modification.
All of this is to say that in Formula 1, especially with the current technical regulations that govern the competitiveness of wing cars, it is very easy to go down the wrong path. After all, even Red Bull and Mercedes have done so. And both teams are certainly not composed of amateurs. There is also another issue to consider: Ferrari is designing the SF-25, the car that will compete in next year’s championship. We are talking about an evolution of the current car, of course, but it will be very different in some of its fundamentals. One of these is the suspension layout, which will be revised in terms of geometry.
If McLaren and Red Bull are engaged in the battle at the top and, by necessity, will have to dedicate a lot of time to being perfect during the last 6 race weekends, including 3 Sprint Races, Ferrari can “surrender to the competition” and devote a greater percentage of effort toward the 2025 season. This does not mean that the Maranello drivers, engineers and technicians should give up. On the contrary, continuing to push, perform at their best, and increase their understanding of the SF-24 remains a concrete goal even for the future. However, they could afford to dedicate more time to the next car.
A small advantage that could weigh in the final championship before yet another regulatory revolution. Obviously, to make this scenario effective, Ferrari must consider one aspect: fighting until the end for a remote chance to stay attached to the constructors’ championship is no longer possible, and consequently, part of their energy must necessarily be spent differently. Focusing on the present and arriving in 2025 with the right weapon to win both world titles seems more sensible than chasing a current goal that is fading.
According to what has been reported by various Italian news media outlets, during the latest meetings held in Maranello, it seems that the historic Italian team has “carefully focused” on this issue. Although the decision to “give up” is not yet final, we know that the deadline has been set for the Mexican Grand Prix. If, in the next two championship rounds, with the further updates, that are minor, but are expected to contribute significantly to the cause, Ferrari manages to gain significant points and increase its chances of success in the constructors’ championship, it won’t give up. Otherwise, it’s full focus on the next Formula 1 season.
