Regardless of how the Italian Grand Prix, sadly behind a Safety Car, Ferrari tried everything possible to win at Monza in front of its home fans, but Max Verstappen and his RB18 remain unstoppable, specializing in wins from the middle or back of the grid. Their current superiority is beyond question.
Max Verstappen also took the race win in Monza, once again starting from a lower position. The level achieved by the RB18-driver package reached an extremely high peak from Spa-Francorchamps, even if already on Saturday in Hungary the strong step forward had been glimpsed. So much so as to give them a certainty terms of strategic and performance choices compared to a Ferrari, which became under pressure and in trouble and was therefore forced to take some risks (more calibrated in the race) in terms of generating power.
Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz all had an impeccable race at Monza, staying out of trouble in the first lap and the most heated phases of the race, which was what mattered for setting up their stints. Red Bull used more downforce load and was able to express here too, unlike Austria, an excellent degradation management and a slightly better pace on the Soft with a full tank of fuel, about 1.5 tenths better than Charles. The gap was bigger on the mediums, around 3 tenths.
In qualifying, Ferrari used, in no uncertain terms, all the power available, which is not little. Thus compensating for a small deficit on a circuit where 10 HP is over 2 tenths. Then Ferrari had to manage it to avoid problems. It was clear there was the need to react and try to get at least a small chance to fight for the win on home ground “with everything possible” to improve (at least a little) the overall disappointing outcome of the 2022 Formula 1 season.
After the Technical Directive 39, the F1-75 car looked more solid on the Italian circuit although not strong enough in the race due to not enough downforce generated from the floor. It is not a surprise simply because the Technical Directive has complicated the work on the compromise needed and shortened the balance window of the Ferrari car which at the moment knows it continues to be exposed to risks in terms of the setup choices if it runs too low. As a result, there are now a number of different assessments to make when choosing the configuration.
The cars, according to what some engineers admit, seem to be less performing in order to better compensate for the wear checks under the floor. At Monza, the stiffness of the cars was a less problematic issue because it was combined with low load configurations, as explained by Giuliano Duchessa for formu1a.uno.
If we think about the requirements of the Italian track, Red Bull has been able to afford relatively a lot of load (the same as in Spa or Baku). It is clear that Honda is also providing a hybrid and and engine with more availability in terms of power, especially for the energy of its MGUs (electric part), than at the beginning of the year. Which helps Red Bull make those choices. But the superiority in the management of degradation also seems to be the result of its development direction in terms of competitiveness, which Ferrari insisted more on. This is reflected not so much on the single lap (beyond Belgium where the technicians were quite surprised by the gap seen after the summer break), as in the degradation. It is clear that now this is a driver-car combination that has an important margin to manage every aspect of the race and, by now, of the championship.
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Ferrari knew that they would have a deficit in the race pace, from the simulation data they predicted that Charles Leclerc would lose against Max Verstappen by 13/15 seconds with the same strategies. The starting position of the world champion would have offered a small head start, albeit not a huge one given the quality of the cars in between.
Essentially, the Red Bull superiority could have been disturbed only by episodes or opportunities. The Virtual Safety Car could have been one of those if it had not ended so fast. Ferrari had no choice but to try it and see.
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