The hope that Ferrari saw light at the end of the tunnel was there at a certain point of the 2023 Formula 1 championship. Then came Silverstone, and everything fell apart. Not to mention Hungary, where on a track that should have suited the Maranello team, the Italians reiterated a fact: the understanding of the car, be it strengths or weaknesses, is very low. This is evident from the ongoing difficulties in handling scenarios different from the norm, such as the qualifying in ATA (Alternative Tyre Allocation) format, where tire choices for each part of the session were predetermined.
In the race, the usual degradation limited the pace and minds of the Ferrari team, as, during the third stint, the SF-23 cars were the only ones among the front-runners still using Hard tires as a precaution, significantly worried about possible tire wear. In short, the situation seems to be at a standstill, and the Prancing Horse just can’t seem to wake up. And so, the wind is mentioned. According to Frederic Vasseur’s analysis, the weather conditions, particularly in sector 3, ruined the plans of the red team.
While it is true that an inherently unstable car might suffer more from wind effects in certain circumstances, it’s worth noting that the wind was present for all teams. Unfortunately, almost six months after the first test in Bahrain during the pre-season, it’s genuinely challenging to understand the direction Ferrari has taken. We struggle to comprehend it, and frankly, we believe they do too.
In the days leading up to the latest round of the 2023 World Championship, the management’s top executives, using the French manager as their spokesperson, openly talked about pole position. Quite a goal, isn’t it? Expectations based on internal data analysis that all too often don’t materialize. This context is “depressing,” and it’s worth reflecting on.
Does Ferrari really know where it’s going?
Being confident in life is essential in any discipline. The certainty of one’s abilities allows individuals to offer their best. However, even though there are countless minds at work within GES (Ferrari Gestione Sportiva), the simulated hypothetical situations almost always do not correspond to the reality on the track. Here arises a spontaneous question that can be summarized with a Roman-style play on words: “Is Ferrari pretending or is it genuine?” The answer to this question can be interpreted in different ways.
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Boasting an ultra-competitive approach before approaching a Grand Prix can boost morale both inside and outside the team. The drivers and mechanics, knowing they can put together a strong weekend, will be more inclined to work together and believe in the outcome. Therefore, logically, this tactic might work and provide a significant mental boost. But there’s the flip side. When the result not only fails to meet expectations but falls far short of them, the psychological blow can be devastating.
It is indeed a depressing situation, making it challenging to draw a clear lesson for the near future. Not to mention the awkward image presented to the world, magnified by the poor post-race excuses that sound like “we don’t know what to say, so we hide behind our fingers.” The evolution of recent harmful rhetoric. The “we need to understand 2.0.” The “blame-shifting” is ongoing, it seems.
If it is not just a tactic and the engineers of the Scuderia Ferrari were genuinely convinced that they could challenge and why not beat Red Bull, Mercedes, and McLaren in Hungarian territory, then the situation becomes significantly worse. It would mean that their confidence in their abilities does not stem from valid arguments but rather from an inability to grasp the various operational contexts fully. Having the means to do a good job does not automatically guarantee success. To achieve that, one needs someone who knows how to use these “tools of the trade” to perfection.
Ferrari is facing operational crisis towards 2024. The data gathered in the wind tunnel, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies, and the extensive use of the simulator are not translating well to the track. According to information gathered by the FUnoanalisitecnica team, this aspect is causing significant concern for the Italian team, and rightfully so, especially when considering the 2024 project.
At the beginning of the new regulatory era, Ferrari hit the mark. They presented an excellent car at the starting line, ready to use, capable of securing poles and achieving some stage victories until the summer break. Everything seemed to work, including data correlation. Only the poor reliability, along with strategic mistakes, undermined their chances of victory.
Since then, a slow but relentless decline in performance has been taking place, triggered by the TD039 directive regarding the usable ground heights. Ferrari has lost its operational balance, and today, it pains us to say it, but the much-needed equilibrium in Formula 1 no longer exists. However, the real problem lies in the future.
Judging the result of a Formula 1 season from which nothing more can be achieved is not wrong. It has been decided at Maranello’s tables for some time now, aware that investing the most significant efforts in this period of the year on the design of the new car was the right thing to do. In doing so, they decided to use the ongoing championship as a kind of test. On-track trials using the SF-23 as a guinea pig, according to information collected by F1 expert Alessandro Arcari for FUnoanalisitecnica.
However, it seems that the current car, subjected to experimental tests, offers no certainties whatsoever. This is the difficult reality engineers and technicians are facing, substitutes and non-substitutes alike. When commenting on such a panorama, one must add the limitation imposed by the budget cap. Having the same freedom to work on the new project, as was the case until a few years ago, is no longer possible. Hence, the need to eliminate errors and maximize resources prevails, an exercise in which Ferrari shows itself to be not very proficient.
Moreover, the restrictions of the current regulations, both during the ongoing season and in the “homework” to be done during the winter, severely limit creative power. Adding these factors to the alarming picture described above emphasizes how various elements are contributing to further entangle a already very intricate situation.
