Ferrari with Carlos Sainz starts ahead of everyone in today’s Mexican Grand Prix, which is set to take place at the 4.304-kilometre Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City. On Saturday we saw an outstanding performance by Carlos Sainz, contrasting with Charles Leclerc’s lackluster one. Since the third free practice session, we saw a Ferrari that, just like on Friday, showed a certain degree of instability in the central sector. This behavior is also due to some setup decisions aimed at finding a competitive compromise between balance in the medium-slow sections and the faster parts of the track. The Maranello technicians worked to improve the car’s stability in the second sector.
In the qualifying session, we saw a reversal in the sector values, with a partial “re-stabilization” in the last Q3 attempts. The Ferrari drivers “penalized” their performance in the first sector to gain lateral grip at high speeds. During the final free practice session in Mexico City, they tuned the suspension setup, adjusting roll and increasing the stiffness of the anti-roll bars both at the front and rear. A smaller roll angle helps the floor work better, as the downforce produced is a function of the floor’s spatial position, given the high sensitivity to variations in various characteristic angles.
They may also have adjusted the ride height, lowering the car by 1 or 2 millimeters, as the difference in terms of downforce is noticeable. This would also explain why they were so strong on the curbs. We cannot rule out some damper adjustments to improve the so-called “bound & rebound” phases. McLaren was strong in the first sector, as they also theoretically have good handling over bumps. However, they weren’t as strong as the two SF-24 cars. They likely had a slightly lower car with increased stiffness.
Essentially, the “softer” the compression, the better the suspension system absorbs the curb impact. However, such a setup might struggle to control roll. Therefore, finding a balance between anti-roll bars and damping systems is challenging. Within this technical context, it’s worth clarifying that the slipstream Carlos Sainz took behind Nico Hülkenberg in the first sector was not at all decisive. On the contrary, what allowed the Spaniard to secure pole was his skill in handling.
The big difference came, in fact, in the initial sector, where they struggled significantly in qualifying compared to Red Bull and McLaren. But Carlos Sainz performed a real magic. Throughout the Mexican weekend, the two SF-24 cars struggled immensely in this segment, as we extensively explained in our analyses. In Q3, the Spaniard found something extra in handling, bringing him very close to the absolute best sector time, held by Lando Norris. Losing “only” a tenth is an enormous achievement, considering that Max Verstappen’s Red Bull RB20 had to settle behind him.
Carlos Sainz built up a good advantage between corners 4 and 6, while in the rest of the sector he contained the damage excellently. However, it is worth noting that at corner 7, the Ferrari lost as much as 17 kilometers per hour of minimum speed compared to the McLaren. In light of this further technical consideration, we can see from the micro-sector data how the Ferrari dominated all the straights, indicating that different choices were made regarding maximum speeds. We must remember that in the race, average speeds decrease, and therefore the required downforce is lower, theoretically speaking.
Ferrari often focuses on this concept, as it aims to maximize top speeds by adopting a lower downforce level than optimal for a dry lap. Red Bull worked hard during the last free practice session, condensing all the lost work from Friday with Max Verstappen into just one hour. In the “snake” of the central sector, the car had a fairly good balance, confirming the large amount of downforce available on the RB20. During qualifying, the Dutchman had some grip issues with the rear Soft tires, especially in the central sector.
At medium speeds, he experienced some oversteer on corner entry, indicating suboptimal rear grip that caused excessive rotation when approaching the apex. This behavior is not new, and the car seems to respond better to setup changes. Generally, it seems to be a suspension issue they addressed during the session. The rear roll resistance was too high, and by lowering it, they found balance, although not enough to match the compromise found by McLaren.
The MCL38 had the potential to dominate the front row, as confirmed in FP3, where they further improved their performance in the first sector, achieving a good compromise between damper adjustments and roll resistance. Overall, they had the best global setup compromise. In the middle sector, they managed to generate a lot of downforce and were particularly effective in the center of the corners, with minimum speeds even higher than Red Bull. However, the latter was significantly better in direction changes, as demonstrated by the use of curbs at high speeds.
It is worth pointing out once again that Carlos Sainz managed the weight transfer well through handling. Ferrari, for example, encountered instability during the lateral weight transfer. At the moment of rapid transfer, the rear destabilized, as seen in the telemetry data of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz’s laps. Next, we analyze the data relating to the “ideal” gaps, obtained by summing the best sector times for each driver. The reference time is obtained by adding the best sector times from the session. We can immediately see that Lando Norris was ideally two tenths behind Carlos Sainz and could have secured the front row. There were no significant improvements for Mercedes compared to yesterday.
There is still noticeable instability in the final phase of the medium-slow corners, although some progress has been made by the Brackley-based F1 team. On exit, the rear tended to lighten, indicating a lack of rear grip suffered by the W15. This factor leads to excessive tire slipping, causing overheating, undoubtedly a problem even in dry laps. The German team has been working on optimizing mechanical grip, but the second sector requires very high stiffness to allow the floor to work well.
If a compromise heavily favors S1 and S3, a lot is lost in the central sector of the Mexican F1 track. This aspect, when weighed in the overall lap balance, did not pay off for Mercedes. Seven-time Formula 1 world champion Lewis Hamilton felt quite good with the setup and had a good feel, but yesterday the W15 lacked performance. Moreover, slight modifications were made to car number 44 for qualifying, but they did not yield positive results and were actually detrimental. Currently, the multi-award-winning team is a step behind its main competitors.
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