From Spa-Francorchamps
Andrea Kimi Antonelli completed a remarkable full-circle moment by winning at the same Spa-Francorchamps circuit where, one year earlier, he had endured the most difficult point of his season. Mercedes recovered from the fortunate timing of Ferrari’s pit stop by producing outstanding pace on the hard tyres, a compound that caused significant problems for several of the other leading contenders.
Ferrari can nevertheless leave Belgium with a positive assessment of its weekend. The Scuderia was not far behind Mercedes on one of the most challenging circuits of the year for the SF-26, while its strong reliability and remaining development potential provide further reasons to believe that the championship fight is far from over. The final result saw Andrea Kimi Antonelli defeat Charles Leclerc, with Max Verstappen completing the podium and Lewis Hamilton finishing fourth in a dramatic 2026 Belgian Grand Prix.
Ferrari’s Spa analysis begins with a restrained opening stint
The Belgian Grand Prix reflected the wider pattern of the Spa weekend, with Mercedes becoming increasingly competitive as the race progressed. During the opening stint, Andrea Kimi Antonelli was unable to escape at the front. Tyre degradation was lower than expected, which may have prevented the W17 from fully exploiting one of its main strengths.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli was eventually forced to pit to cover Max Verstappen’s stop, while Max Verstappen had himself stopped to protect against a possible undercut from Charles Leclerc. Ferrari’s pressure on its rivals allowed the Scuderia to extend its opening stint before taking advantage of the Virtual Safety Car to change tyres.
Charles Leclerc also deserves credit for resisting Lewis Hamilton’s attacks. Had Lewis Hamilton completed the pass, Ferrari would have faced a much more complicated simultaneous double pit stop because Lewis Hamilton still had to serve his five-second penalty while stationary in his pit box.
The sequence gave Ferrari an opportunity to repeat its victory from Silverstone. However, the second stint ultimately exposed the strength of the Andrea Kimi Antonelli-Mercedes combination. Charles Leclerc later explained why he believed victory remained possible at Spa, even after Mercedes began to demonstrate its advantage.
Hard tyres become the decisive factor at Spa
The hard compound defined the second half of the race. It represented an unknown for the leading teams because they had not tested it during the weekend, turning tyre behaviour into the decisive variable.
Max Verstappen was the first driver to complain about a lack of grip. Lewis Hamilton soon realised that he was struggling to rotate his Ferrari and asked whether the team had changed the front-wing angle during his pit stop.
Charles Leclerc encountered the greatest difficulty. The Ferrari driver may have demanded too much from the tyres during the opening laps of the stint as he attempted to clear Lando Norris quickly on lap 23. A comparison between the two Ferrari drivers shows that Charles Leclerc lost approximately two seconds to Lewis Hamilton between laps 29 and 33.
Lewis Hamilton’s times indicated that Ferrari possessed enough underlying pace to prolong the battle with Mercedes, even though Charles Leclerc was unable to maintain the same rhythm during that phase. The contrast also adds important context to Ferrari’s overall result, in which Charles Leclerc finished second and Lewis Hamilton recovered to fourth.
Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton’s lap times
- Lap 24: Charles Leclerc 1:49.5; Lewis Hamilton 1:50.5
- Lap 25: Charles Leclerc 1:50.1; Lewis Hamilton 1:50.3
- Lap 26: Charles Leclerc 1:49.9; Lewis Hamilton 1:50.1
- Lap 27: Charles Leclerc 1:50.0; Lewis Hamilton 1:50.2
- Lap 28: Charles Leclerc 1:49.9; Lewis Hamilton 1:50.1
- Lap 29: Charles Leclerc 1:50.0; Lewis Hamilton 1:49.9
- Lap 30: Charles Leclerc 1:50.2; Lewis Hamilton 1:50.0
- Lap 31: Charles Leclerc 1:50.4; Lewis Hamilton 1:49.9
- Lap 32: Charles Leclerc 1:50.2; Lewis Hamilton 1:49.6
- Lap 33: Charles Leclerc 1:50.2; Lewis Hamilton 1:49.5
Charles Leclerc gradually recovered as the stint progressed, but his laps in Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s slipstream after losing the lead should not be misinterpreted. The chasing driver’s overtake mode provided an additional half-megajoule of energy, helping Charles Leclerc remain close to the Mercedes.
The underlying reality was that, just as at Silverstone, Andrea Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes were the reference at Spa. Crucially, they avoided the hard-tyre difficulties experienced by their rivals.
With only a few laps remaining, Andrea Kimi Antonelli reduced his lap times by more than half a second. That late improvement demonstrated how intelligently he had managed the W17’s potential without overworking the tyres. His Belgian Grand Prix victory offered further evidence of his technical and mental qualities, reinforcing the legitimacy of his championship lead.
Mercedes shows two different faces in Belgium
Victory at Spa guaranteed that Andrea Kimi Antonelli would enter the summer break at the top of the Drivers’ Championship. His aggressive driving style, which minimises the amount of time spent in corners, is proving particularly well suited to the energy-management demands of the 2026 regulations and the operating requirements of the new Pirelli tyres.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli is also benefiting from greater psychological maturity. During their conversation at Wimbledon, Roger Federer advised the Italian driver to learn how to manage his emotions, something Andrea Kimi Antonelli is now applying both inside the car and during post-race briefings.
Mercedes’ Belgian Grand Prix was not entirely positive, however. George Russell was eliminated following contact with Lewis Hamilton, but George Russell had fallen into that vulnerable position partly because he lacked electrical deployment on the Kemmel Straight.
Toto Wolff revealed that every Mercedes-powered car experienced energy-management problems at the start, although the issue reportedly affected George Russell more severely than Andrea Kimi Antonelli. It was not the only difficulty George Russell experienced during the weekend.
From Friday onwards, George Russell was also affected by an anomaly that caused his car to use more energy in the first sector at the expense of the third, costing him lap time. Energy deployment had already emerged as one of the weekend’s central technical subjects, as shown by the Spa qualifying telemetry comparison.
As McLaren team principal Andrea Stella explained, the new power units operate according to processes that are difficult to predict. The systems make autonomous decisions in real time based on sensitivity to factors that have not yet been fully identified.
Toto Wolff has urged Mercedes to strengthen this area, which forms part of the broader reliability challenge. Ferrari currently holds an advantage on that front, helping the Scuderia remain involved in the championship battle.
Why Ferrari can still believe after Spa
Ferrari has several reasons to leave Spa-Francorchamps encouraged. The Scuderia recognises Mercedes’ superiority, but the gap to the W17 remained relatively small at one of the most difficult circuits of the year for the SF-26.
The calendar now offers Ferrari two circuits that should, at least on paper, be more suitable for its car. Those layouts could reduce the impact of Ferrari’s power-unit deficit while placing greater emphasis on the SF-26’s aerodynamic strengths.
However, Monaco was also expected to suit Ferrari. That weekend provided a reminder that Formula 1 results depend as much on operational execution as they do on the fundamental performance of the car.
Regardless of that warning, Ferrari can approach the remainder of the season with optimism. Reliability has been one of the team’s greatest strengths so far, reducing the risk of power-unit grid penalties during the final part of the campaign.
Ferrari also adopted a different development philosophy from Mercedes. Rather than prioritising a car capable of reaching its maximum competitive level immediately, the Scuderia invested heavily in creating a strong initial platform with significant potential for future improvement.
That approach helped Ferrari preserve resources under the budget cap, which should support the introduction of further aerodynamic upgrades over the coming months. The team’s power-unit programme is another major element of its comeback attempt, with analysis suggesting that Ferrari’s first ADUO gains may be more important than initially believed.
A second enhanced power unit produced under the Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities framework is also expected. Ferrari is currently targeting a Monza introduction for its major ADUO-2 upgrade, which could help reduce its remaining deficit.
Mercedes remains the benchmark at present, but it would not be surprising if Ferrari succeeded in reversing the competitive picture during the coming months. The fact that Maranello remained close at a circuit that reduced the advantages Ferrari had enjoyed at Silverstone strengthens that argument.
Max Verstappen faces the most difficult final step
Spa also provided satisfaction for Max Verstappen, who celebrated a podium at what he considers another home race. Despite the absence of the “Macarena” rear wing, which Laurent Mekies said would return to the car in Budapest, the RB22 was still able to exploit its strong straight-line speed.
Energy management nevertheless remains a weakness for the Milton Keynes team. Overall, the upgrade package introduced in Austria allowed Red Bull to make a significant step forward and move to within a few tenths of Mercedes. That final margin is traditionally the most difficult one to eliminate.
McLaren’s result disguises its true Belgian Grand Prix pace
McLaren collected less than its underlying performance deserved in Belgium. Lando Norris’ grid penalty, a pit-stop problem and the damage sustained by Oscar Piastri all concealed the encouraging race pace demonstrated by the reigning world champions.
The new tools supplied by Mercedes helped McLaren improve its energy management. The Woking team hopes to complement that progress with aerodynamic developments expected in Budapest.
McLaren nevertheless understands that its forthcoming upgrades are unlikely to be enough to place the team immediately on the same level as Mercedes and Andrea Kimi Antonelli. For now, that combination continues to set the standard for the rest of the Formula 1 field.
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