In the 2025 Dutch Grand Prix, the incidents involving Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc presented two very different narratives, even though both ultimately resulted in major disappointment for the respective drivers and their teams. The double zero points on the scoreboard is particularly significant in the context of a championship battle, as it represents lost opportunities in a season where every point is highly valuable. For Charles Leclerc, misfortune seemed to compound upon misfortune, while for Lewis Hamilton, a rare and somewhat unusual mistake in the opening stint played a significant role in his crash. Today’s in-depth analysis aims to carefully break down exactly what happened to the Briton, to provide a thorough understanding of the circumstances and the contributing factors, and to explore what might have been done differently to potentially avoid such a costly incident.
Lewis Hamilton struggles with rear tire wear from lap 8: race engineer Riccardo Adami requests careful management
Let us attempt to reconstruct the events of Lewis Hamilton’s 23-lap race at the Circuit Zandvoort. At the start of the Dutch Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton neither gained nor lost positions, remaining directly behind his former Mercedes teammate George Russell. From the pit wall, despite the track and asphalt temperatures being relatively moderate and not unusually high for this time of the year, the Ferrari race engineers instructed Lewis Hamilton to manage his approach carefully through corners eight and nine. Initially, the focus of the communications from race engineer Riccardo Adami was on adjusting the brake release in turn eight, with the explicit objective of reducing the heat that was being generated under braking and preventing excessive thermal stress on the rear brakes.
In addition to braking management, there was a clear requirement to enter corners at slightly reduced speeds and to preserve the tires as much as possible, particularly the rear tires, which were under significant thermal stress. This stress was exacerbated by the “dirty air” effect produced by the cars directly ahead on the track, which disrupted airflow and affected tire grip and stability. Lewis Hamilton frequently reported over the radio that he was experiencing a noticeable degree of oversteer on corner exits. This excess rotation of the rear end was not unnoticed by the Maranello team; it had already been detected through telemetry data, which highlighted a recurring pattern of rear instability.
This phenomenon, as it turned out, was directly related to the excessive wear of the rear tires, particularly the right rear tire, as Lewis Hamilton himself confirmed in a radio message during lap 20. By analyzing onboard footage, it becomes very clear that the seven-time Formula 1 world champion was required to exercise extreme precision at corner entry, carefully managing the rear of the car while operating at the very limit of tire performance. His experience and skill were evident, but the situation demanded constant attention and fine adjustments, especially given the worsening grip levels on certain parts of the track.
Too much speed into turn 3 leads to oversteer in the middle of the corner
When we examine the dynamics of the crash using both telemetry data and sequential onboard frames, we can begin to understand exactly what Lewis Hamilton did differently compared to the preceding laps. One of the key points highlighted by Riccardo Adami via radio communications was the entry phase into turn three. The strategic intention behind this phase was to maximize exit speed onto the straight that leads to turn eight, in order to maintain competitive lap times and attempt potential overtaking opportunities.
Interestingly, the entry line into turn three was not dramatically different from the approach used in earlier laps. However, when using a reference point such as the Aramco sponsor markings painted in blue on the right-hand side of the track, it becomes evident that on lap 23, the lap in which the incident occurred, Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari was marginally closer to this track marker than it had been in previous laps. For instance, on lap 21, Lewis Hamilton had used a larger portion of the outside of the corner and had a slightly larger steering angle, demonstrating a subtly different technique aimed at maintaining optimal exit speed.
Telemetry data and video analysis suggest that the difference lies in the slightly higher speed that Lewis Hamilton carried into the corner, along with the decision to delay his braking points for both turns two and three. Although the speed differential was relatively small—around three to four kilometers per hour—it was sufficient to generate a noticeable loss of rear grip. Additional analysis of the gas pedal input indicates that this instability was not caused by an early throttle application, nor can it be attributed to an obvious error in car positioning on the circuit. The seven-time Formula 1 world champion was operating the car within the expected parameters, yet the combination of higher speed, delayed braking, and tire wear created a critical situation.
Ferrari: longitudinal load shift and excessive lateral forces trigger rear slip
The mistake can be more accurately attributed to the rapidly deteriorating track conditions and the complex dynamics of the vehicle under these circumstances. Frames capturing the mid-point of turn three illustrate that Lewis Hamilton had to abruptly turn the steering wheel in an effort to control the rear end of the Ferrari. The higher entry speed significantly increased lateral load transfer and demanded more grip from the rear tires than they could provide at that moment.
Compounding this, the longitudinal load shift during throttle release caused an overload of the rear tires, which were already nearing the limit of their usable life. The tires began to slide more extensively, particularly as the car moved into sections of the track that were less rubbered-in and slightly wetter. This combination of factors rendered the car nearly uncontrollable. The collapse of the friction coefficient on the rear tires played a primary role in this dynamic, emphasizing how critical tire management and precise driving are in high-speed corners.
When Lewis Hamilton applied a sudden countersteer in an attempt to bring the car back on its intended trajectory, the rear end was pushed into a less grippy portion of the track. Despite employing a larger steering angle to regain control, the Ferrari lost almost all directional stability. Observing this sequence, one might wonder whether this was a rookie-level error. However, given Lewis Hamilton’s extensive experience and his seven world championship titles, it is clear that the situation was much more complex than a simple mistake. Human error certainly played a part, but the primary factors were the combination of track conditions, tire degradation, and vehicle dynamics at the limit.
Just moments before the crash, Lewis Hamilton had been discussing an undercut strategy to overtake George Russell and noted over the radio that the tires were still technically usable. However, in his focused attempt to close the gap to his former Mercedes teammate, Lewis Hamilton inadvertently carried excessive speed into the braking zone, missing the optimal braking point for the corner. This decision, combined with the track’s evolving conditions and the state of the rear tires, proved to be fatal in terms of vehicle control. At this stage of the race, where precision and attention to detail are crucial, even small miscalculations can result in a loss of control, as was the case here.
By carefully analyzing this sequence, we can appreciate just how finely balanced the performance of a Formula 1 car is, particularly when operating at the very limits of tire adhesion and aerodynamic grip. Lewis Hamilton’s crash demonstrates how multiple subtle factors—slightly higher speed, delayed braking, rear tire wear, track conditions, and the aerodynamic consequences of driving in the dirty air of cars ahead—can converge in a matter of seconds to create an almost unavoidable incident. While the crash may appear at first glance to be a straightforward error, it is in fact the result of a highly complex interaction between driver input, tire performance, vehicle dynamics, and track characteristics.
Furthermore, comparing this incident to that of Charles Leclerc highlights the contrasting nature of the two events. While the Monegasque’s race was affected primarily by a series of unfortunate circumstances, Lewis Hamilton’s incident was driven more by the combination of human decision-making under pressure and the technical limits of the car in the prevailing conditions. Both zero-point results are significant in the context of the 2025 Formula 1 season and serve as a reminder of how unpredictable and challenging racing at the highest level can be, even for the most experienced drivers on the grid.
— see video above —
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